Aidan O’Hara shares his best betting tips from Friday’s racing at Aintree after his 50/1 selection finished third yesterday.
4:40 Aintree
Tip 1: Frankie John - 2 Points Each-Way (4 places)
Best odds of 80/1 at Unibet while publishing.
Sometimes when I look at a card, I go straight to one and am bowled over by the price. FRANKIE JOHN, has some solid Irish form on heavy ground, but the critical thing here is, he should be a lot better on decent ground. I thought he would be about 33/1 for this, and he was still the bet. If he shows any improvement at all on his Heavy ground grade 1 Irish form on the decent ground here on this easier track, I think he can get involved in the finish and will not look an 80/ 1 shot towards the end of the race.
All his runs on decent ground are good, and its not out of the question he has been improving but just been on the wrong ground in the big races.
He also has the fact that he hasn’t run at Cheltenham going for him here. I would take the 4-place offer from several bookies, as his place chance looks very good to me. I make him somewhere in the region of 4-5/1 to place here, and about a 25/1 chance overall, so 66/1is great value especially with 4 places.
The margin makes this a 2 pt ew bet at the 4 places.
Kwiff
1:45 Aintree
Tip 2: Fingle Bridge - 1 Point Each-Way
Best odds of 50/1 available at Unibet while publishing.
FINGLE BRIDGE strikes me as a bit of value here. We must forgive a poor run in heavy ground in the imperial cup last time, when caught wide, and was never really in the race. He has had a break since.
All his form apart from that has really worked out, and his Chase runs this year are probably a lot better than they initially thought.
When I look at some of his novice runs that really were good last year, I think decent ground around here over this trip is about perfect for him. If there is another negative it’s the jockey has a 100% record for the trainer, well 2 for 2 (that surely can’t continue).
He obviously isn’t the stable pick here, as he has a few runners, but we can take the chance that he will be ready at the price we are getting.
4:05 Aintree
Tip 3: Conflated - 1pt EW (6 places)
Best odds of 80/1 at bet365 while publishing.
Peaky Boy - 1pt EW (6 places)
Best odds of 50/1 at William Hill while publishing.
1 Year ago, CONFLATED made a huge mistake at the 2nd last when looking certain to place in the plate handicap at the festival, of a mark of 157. He has looked a fair bit rejuvenated in the cross country, particularly a very nice run ant Punchestown.
He also travelled well at the festival, but the extra 6 furlongs there took its tool after the last and he faded. He has dropped to a mark of 140 here, and with his experience in the cross country he should enjoy these fences. I think he is worth a bet for one last goo show around here at a huge price. This trip should suit him, and he was never a strong stayer over 3 miles.
My second pick is pure gut, more than anything. PEAKY BOY was a very good prospect 2 years ago with some top-class form. He has moved to the O’Neil’s, and has had basically 1 run after a yearlong break. He ran well enough in the Plate until a big error 3 out, but it did show he may be on his way back.
He’s not the best jumper, but sometimes around here if he realises early he can get away with it here with the fences, he may be better here than at Cheltenham . I think he is unexposed and if that run has put him right after the break, he could compete here at a huge price.
5:15 Aintree
Tip 4: Afadil - 1 Point EW
Best odds of 33/1 at bet365, Unibet while publishing.
AFADIL sticks out here as a bit of value. He is a regular in races like this and has run well in better races, of higher marks a good few times in the past. He probably a big price here, because his run over further last time was poor enough after being backed.
He was 3rd in this 2 years ago of 10lbs higher. This year he has been placed in 3 races better than this of higher marks, and twice at Sandown on unsuitable ground,
If he gets a good run through here, he should be there at the finish enough times to make his price of 33/1 look very generous.
The jockey has an excellent strike rate for Paul Nichols and in a race like that adds a nice but of upside to the bet.
