Take a look at our ananlysis of the last five years at Cheltenham to see how favourites have fared in each race/day.
Day one
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Placed | Won | Won | Placed | Placed | Two |
| Arkle Trophy | Won | Placed | Won | Won | Won | Four |
| The Ultima Handicap Chase | Placed | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | None |
| Champion Hurdle | Won | 0 | Won | Won | 0 | Three |
| Mares' Hurdle | Won | Won | 0 | Won | Placed | Three |
| National Hunt Chase | Won | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | Two |
| Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
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Labaik broke Willie Mullins' stranglehold on the Supreme in last year's event, though, the favourite, Melon did manage a place. That means a Mullins horse has either won or placed in this race in each of the last five years. The race usually gets punters off to a winning start with all five favourites at least placed since 2013.
Current favourite: Getabird 13/8
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Not a race for value seekers with four of the last five runnings won by the odds-on jolly. This year looks more competitive though, with Footpad the 6/4 favourite, Petit Mouchoir 3/1 and Saint Calvados 9/2,
Current favourite: Footpad 6/4
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The first handicap of the Festival and the first real challenge for punters with only two favourites finishing in the places in the last five years.
Current favourite: Gold Present 10/1
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Another race dominated by Mullins, who has been responsible for the favourite in four of the last five years with three of them winning.
Current favourite: Buveur Dair 4/7
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Mullins who had won this race eight years running until last year when Apple's Jade got the better of 6/4 favourite Limini. Three wins and a place in the last five years makes this race a strong one for favourites.
Current favourite: Apple's Jade 4/6
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The 4 miler has been kinder to the bookies in recent years with only one of the last four favourites placing following Back in Focus' win in 2013.
Current favourite: Dounikos 7/1
Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
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The final race on day one has not been one for favourite backers with no winners in the last 5 years and just one place. That was Thomas Crapper in 2015.
Current favourite: De Plotting Shed 8/1
Day Two
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Novices Hurdle | Placed | Won | Placed | Placed | Placed | One |
| RSA Chase | 0 | Placed | Won | Placed | Won | Two |
| Coral Cup | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
| Queen Mother Champion Chase/td> | Won | Won | 0 | Placed | 0 | Two |
| Cross Country Chase | 0 | Placed | 0 | Won | Placed | One |
| Fred Winter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | None |
| Champion Bumper | Placed | Placed | Won | 0 | 0 | One |
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Day two normally starts with another short-priced favourite (7/2 the biggest price in the last five years) but just one has entered the winning enclosure, although all five have been placed.
Current favourite: Samcro 4/5
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A mixed bag for punters where favourites have been inconsistent in recent runnings. Over the last five years just two have obliged, with Might Bite (7/2) winning a dramatic finish last year to join Don Poli (13/8) in 2015.
Current favourite: Presenting Percy 11/4
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Day two doesn’t get any easier with the handicap puzzle that is the Coral Cup where there hasn’t been a winning favourite in any of the last five years with just one managing to place.
Current favourite: William Henry 10/1
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More short-priced favourites and more groans from racegoers in recent years. Un De Sceaux and Sizing Europe have both been turned over at odds-on in the last five years in a race with just two winning favourites – Sire De Grugy 11/4 in 2014 and Spinter Sacre 1/4 in 2013.
Current favourite: Altior 4/6
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The unpredictable nature of the Cross Country course has made it tough for punters to find the winner with 2016’s winner Josies Orders the only winning favourite in the last five years though two favourites have placed in recent years.
Current favourite: Cause of Causes 3/1
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Another handicap and another graveyard for favourites. 2017 broke the run of no placed favourites though, with Divin Bere finishing second.
Current favourite: Nube Negra 10/1
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Anyone chasing their losses in the final race on day two haven’t found the answer by backing the favourite in four of the last five years. Only Moon Racer (9/2) in 2015 has done the business in recent years, though two of the other four have managed to place.
Current favourite: Blackbow 6/1
Day Three
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JLT | Placed | 0 | Won | Won | Won | Three |
| Pertemps Final | 0 | Won | 0 | 0 | 0 | One |
| Ryanair Chase | Placed | Won | Placed | Won | Won | Three |
| Stayers’ Hurdle | 0 | Placed | Placed | Won | Placed | One |
| Brown Advisory Plate | 0 | Placed | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
| Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle | - | - | - | Won | Won | Two |
| Kim Muir | Placed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | None |
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Favourite backers have enjoyed success in the last three years with the Willie Mullins trio of Black Hercules (4/1), Vautour (6/4) and Yorkhill (6/4) all landing the odds. This run of winners followed two years of beaten jollys with one place in 2013.
Current favourite: Invitation Only 3/1
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There’s a theme developing here. Another handicap, another bloodbath for favourites. Only 2014 winner Fingal Bay (9/2) can buck the trend with no other winners or placed efforts in the other four years.
Current favourite: Glenloe 10/1
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Three wins in the last five years for favourites with the other two both placed. At last a race we can all agree is punter friendly! Un De Sceaux (7/4), under the stewardship of the Mullins/Walsh duo, was the latest to pick up a win last year.
Current favourite: Un De Sceaux 11/4
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2010, 2011 and 2012 were the glory years for fans of the favourite as the legendary Big Buck’s completed his run of four straight victories in this race. Since then four other favourites have tried to emulate the National Hunt hero with only 2016’s winner Thistlecrack able to oblige.
Current favourite: Supasundae 4/1
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Five years have passed since Salut Flo’s (9/2) win in 2012 with only two of the next four managing to place making this a difficult race to predict. You’ve probably guessed by now, the race is a handicap…
Current favourite: Tully East 8/1
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100% strike rate for favourites in the history of the race. Admittedly it’s only two years old but it instantly found favour with favourite backers after Limini (8/11) and Let's Dance tasted success in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Current favourite: Laurina Evens
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It's a handicap. One place in five years.
Current favourite: Mall Dini 13/2
Day Four
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triumph Hurdle | 0 | Placed | Won | Won | Won | Three |
| County Hurdle | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | None |
| Albert Bartlett | Won | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | One |
| The Gold Cup | Won | 0 | 0 | Won | 0 | Two |
| Foxhunter Chase | Won | 0 | Placed | Won | 0 | Two |
| Martin Pipe | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
| Grand Annual | Won | Placed | Placed | Placed | 0 | One |
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The final day. One last chance to beat the bookies. And for the last three years it has been the perfect start for the punting public with three winning favourites putting bookies on the back foot early doors.
Current favourite: Apples Shakira 3/1
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The handicaps don’t get much easier as the week goes on and it’s painful reading for favourites over the last five years with just one place to show for their efforts.
Current favourite: Max Dynamite 8/1
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Another race where favourites are often sent off at a short price and another race where short priced favourites are turned over.
Current favourite: Santini 9/2
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It’s not easy to train a Gold Cup winner and over the last five years it’s not been any easier to back one either. Don Cossack (9/4) last year and Bobs Worth (11/4) in 2013 were both winning favourites during that period but Silviniaco Conti 3/1, Bobs Worth 6/4 and Djakadam were all beaten when market leaders.
Current favourite: Might Bite 4/1
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Two winning favourites from the last five and both were Irish trained. On The Fringe (13/8) landed some big bets in 2016 whilst Salisify did the business (just) in 2013.
Current favourite: Burning Ambition 7/2
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Favourite backers are best-advised to leave the building at this point as it’s not pretty from here on in. Just one favourite has managed at least a place in the last five runnings of the prodigiously difficult HANDICAP.
Current favourite: Flawless Escape 8/1
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By this point you’re either punch drunk on your betting success or just literally drunk from Guinness. Either way, it’s probably best to keep your money in your pocket if you’re backing the favourite with just one win in the last five years. Failing that, make sure you go each-way at least as four of the those five have placed at odds of 3/1 or bigger.
Current favourite: Vaniteux 12/1
TrendsDay one has, over the last five years, been the most prolific in terms of pre-race favourite winners with a relatively big fourteen. Last year saw the Mullins/Walsh duo struggle on day one however, so it will be interesting to see if that continues. Day two could be a day to back the outsiders, with only eight favourites winning over over the five year period. Day three's ten winners have been slightly skewed by the favourite-friendly JLT and Ryanair Chase, with three out of five wins for favourites in both races.
None of the races at Cheltenham have produced winners from the favourites in each of the five years but there are a few to look out for. The Arkle comes close with four wins and one place, along with the Mares' Hurdle and Champion Hurdle on day one which have three wins. The JLT and Ryanair Chase on day three, as mentioned above, have produced three wins for favourites, as has the Triumph Hurdle on day four.
