Andy Holding looks at all of the Cheltenham chances held by the Emerald Isle.
Day One
Given the current state of the going (good-to-soft, soft in places), and long-range forecast, many Irish trainers will be licking their lips at the anticipation of testing conditions on day-one of the festival and it will be interesting to see whether that news has any impact on final decision made to which race connections choose for FAKIR D'OUDARIES (best price 5-1).
A long-term fancy for the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday, the conventional wisdom is that J.P McManus has bought Joseph O’Brien’s gelding in order to keep him away from Sir Erec in the big juvenile contest on day four and having raced exclusively on soft pretty much throughout his fledgling career, the son of Kapgarde will be more at home with plenty of ease under foot than most.
A similar decision also surrounds KLASSICAL DREAM (best price 14-1) as he has options in both the Supreme Novice and Ballymore. However, genuine soft ground would probably see Willie Mullins’ gelding line up in the former contest, based on the notion that he’s two victories this season have come at the minimum trip and the 2m5f trip of the latter race would very much a venture into the unknown.
All the main Irish contenders in the Arkle have form on a soft surface over fences, but the chief beneficiary would be HARDLINE (best price 8-1). One of the few Grade 1 winners in the line-up, that victory came courtesy of gutsy display on desperate winter ground at Limerick and even though the form book says he got well and truly put in his place by La Bague Au Roi at Leopardstown when last seen, Gordon Elliot’s gelding was nowhere near his best that day due to the very fast conditions.
Considering one of APPLES JADE'S (best price 9-4) best ever displays was on bottomless ground at Aintree as a juvenile (won by 44 lengths), further rain would clearly improve her chances of landing the Champion Hurdle, whereas the prospects of SHARJAH (best price 12-1) causing a mini-shock would diminish.
BENIE DES DIEUX (best price 11-10) remains on course for a repeat bid in the Mares Hurdle and having done the circuits on the preview panels, the vibes are extremely high that she will justify her position in the market. That said, Willie Mullins does have a couple more darts to throw at the board and both LIMINI (best price 8-1) and ELIMAY (best price 25-1) should in no way be totally disregarded. The latter, in particular, has a very consistent profile and she ran a nice race on her first outing for the Co Carlow handler off the back of a 420-day break at Leopardstown on her only start this campaign back in December.
The Irish raiders won’t have many runners in the Close Brothers Handicap, but in the shape of A PLUS TARD (best price 8-1) and RIDERS ONTHE STORM (best price 8-1), they do have a couple of likely big players. Each have a touch of class and are likely to end up running in some decent races further down the line, so off their respective current marks, they should be very competitive.
BALLYWARD (best price 7/2) and DISCORAMA (best price 9-1) look the two big hopes for the ‘away squad’ in the National Hunt Chase and as there didn’t appear a great deal to choose between the pair at the point when the latter fell at the final fence at Naas last time out, it could turn out to be a close call again providing the both stay upright.
Day Two
Confidence seems to be gathering that BATTLEOVERDOYEN (best price 9-2) can kick off the second day with a bang for the Irish and he could turn out to be one of the best-backed horses on the card. The way he landed the Grade 1 at Naas when last seen smacked of a horse that has a serious amount of natural ability and it would come as a bitter blow for all concerned if he didn’t take a hand in the finish. Having chased home Gordon Elliot’s gelding in that race back in January, SAMS PROFILE (best price 16-1) deserves more than a second look and having shaped like he wants a severe test of stamina on several starts, Mouse Morris’ inmate would come even more into his own should the ground soften further nearer the time.
If Gigginstown don’t manage to land the first, they look to have a strong chance of immediate compensation with DELTA WORK (best price 9-4) in the RSA Chase. Winner of last year’s Pertemps Final, Gordon Elliot’s six-year-old has looked even better over fences and he’s just the type to be well suited by the test this novice event often provides.
The vibes are that MIN (best price 6-1) will end up being the number one player for Willie Mullins in the Champion Chase, but even allowing for the fact he arrives here in cracking heart, Altior has already proven he has his measure twice in the past. Given his consistent profile in these sort of events, ORDINARY WORLD (best price 50-1) is always worth more than a second look in the exotic markets and it wouldn’t come as the biggest shock in the world if he were to nick a reasonable slice of the pie.
The winner’s garland seems to have already been put around last season’s Cross Country hero TIGER ROLL (best price 11-10) and despite one or two rumours that he might run elsewhere at the fixture, his sights firmly remain with Plan-A before a tilt at regaining his Aintree crown.
The Irish – or predominantly Joseph O’Brien – seem to have a very strong hand in the Fred Winter Handicap as the likes of FINE BRUNELLO (best price 12-1), GARDENS OF BABYLON (best price 12-1), KONITHO (best price 16-1) and STAR MAX (best price 20-1) could join long-term ante-post favourite, BAND OF OUTLAWS (best price 6-1). The main player, however, should turn out to be the latter and any further downpours wouldn’t hold any fears for this mud-lover.
Willie Mullins has a terrific record in recent times in the Bumper and his big hope this season comes via BLUE SARI (best price 5-1). Bought by JP McManus after hacking up at Gowran on his debut, the only concern would be four-year-olds have often found life tough going in this event down the years, but other than that stat, he has to be respected. ENVOI ALLEN (best price 9-2) has done nothing wrong in his three victories this season and he rates a big player, while a favourable mention goes out to LATEST EXHIBITION (best price 33-1) who could be the surprise package at a big price.
Day Three
The JLT looks a race at the mercy of the home brigade with only CAMELIA DES COTTE (best price 25-1) and REAL STEEL (best price 7-1) worthy of favourable mentions from an Irish perspective.
The Pertemps Final looks a different ball game altogether as SIRE DE BERLAIS (best price 6-1) has been one of the best-backed horses for this contest ever since betting opened. Needing to finish in the top six in the qualifier at Leopardstown over the Christmas period, Gordon Elliot’s gelding read the script to nail down the last seat on the plane and having been prepared for a tilt at this prize ever since, the seven-year-old heads to Cheltenham fresh and raring to go.
Another to make the notebook that day was WALK TO FREEDOM (best price 12-1) and he also is a must for the shortlist. Just like his fellow compatriot, Jessica Harrington’s gelding had to come from quite some way off the pace to get himself into a challenging position, so the fact he ended up finishing a creditable second from a seemingly improbable situation says a good deal for his qualities.
The Irish raiders have often done well in the Ryanair Chase and they look to have a strong hand in this year’s renewal with the likes of MONALEE (best price 9-2), FOOTPAD (best price 4-1), UN DES SCEAUX (best price 7-1) and possibly ROAD TO RESPECT (best price 12-1) all having top class form to their names. Having already tipped up the former in this column last month, hopefully connections will do the right thing and run Henry De Bromhead’s start chaser over his optimum trip and if so, then he looks bound to make his presence felt.
Paisley Park looks one of the bankers of the week in the Stayers Hurdle, so despite the presence of the likes of FAUGHEEN (best price 9-2), SUPASUNDAE (best price 8-1) and BACARDYS (best price 16-1), it’s hard to muster up too much enthusiasm for one of the trio causing an upset.
HONEYSUCKLE (best price 7-2) is the big hope for the Irish supporters in the Mares Novice contest and she should give favourite Epatante plenty to think about at the very least. Impressive on all three starts this season, her time figures are also useful and being a former point-to-point winner, she should improve over this stiff 2m4f.
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS (best price 6-1) has without doubt been one of the biggest ante-post gambles in the build-up to the Kim Muir (33-1 into current 6-1) and it would come as no surprise to see a top amateur booked (rumoured to be Jamie Codd) in a bid get the job done.
Day Four
Bookmakers will be sweating on some good results as always on one of the biggest betting days of the year and the layers will be desperate to get hot favourite, SIR EREC (best price 11-10), beat in the opening Triumph Hurdle. Workmanlike rather than spectacular in his two wins over hurdles so far to date, the scopey son of Camelot could easily have more to come than the bare figures suggest.
Should he fail, then the likes of GARDENS OF BABYLON (best price 16-1) and Surin (best price 33-1), beaten at the Leopardstown last time out, could easily pick up the pieces in the event of a more strongly-run affair.
Our Gaelic cousins look to have a strong hand in the Albert Bartlett with the likes of ALLAHO (best price 12-1), RELEGATE (best price 12-1), COMMANDER OF FLEET (best price 7-1) and DERRINOS (best price 14-1) making up a formidable quartet. The former arguably has the most natural ability of the four but it has to be of some concern that horses with his lack of experience often get found out in the brutal contest.
The Gold Cup looks up for grabs with any amount of different permutations possible so the likes of PRESENTING PERCY (best price 4-1), AL BOUM PHOTO (best price 16-1), INVITATION ONLY (best price 40-1), and ROAD TO RESPECT (best price 20-1) all hold perfectly respectable claims.
The former, obviously, has the biggest profile of the quarter and it would come as no surprise to see him go well for shrewd connections. Of the other three mentioned, ROAD TO RESPECT, is one of the more likelier ones to go well at a price as his last two races haven’t really played into his strengths.
In the finale of the Festival, DALLAS DES PICTONS (best price 6-1) could end being one of the best-backed horses of the entire week, especially if Gordon Elliot has the sort of meeting that is anticipated. Nominated for this race ever since he scored with plenty in hand at Leopardstown last time out, the son of Spanish Moon has many similarities to previous winners from the same connections (Dom Poli, Sire De Champs and Blow By Blow) and no doubt a crack conditional will be booked to do the steering.
