Take a look at our ananlysis of the last five years at Cheltenham to see how favourites have fared in each race/day.
Day one
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Won | Won | Placed | Placed | 0 | Two |
| Arkle Chase | Placed | Won | Won | Won | Won | Four |
| The Ultima Handicap Chase | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | Won | One |
| Champion Hurdle | 0 | Won | Won | 0 | Won | Three |
| Mares' Hurdle | Won | 0 | Won | Placed | Placed | Two |
| National Hunt Chase | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
| Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | 0 | None |
Won-Won-Placed-Placed-0
Getabird's disappointing performance up the hill in last year's Supreme meant Willie Mullins did not achieve what has become a customary win/place in the first race of the Festival. The Supreme remains a promising race for favourites though, with two favourite wins in the last five years, altough none have won in the last three.
Current favourite: Al Dancer 7/2
Placed-Won-Won-Won-Won
Not a race for value seekers with four in a row won by a short priced favourite. This year looks far more competitive though, with Glen Forsa and Lalor the 4/1jf, Duc Des Genievres 13/2 and Defi Du Seuil 7/1,
Current favourite: Glen Forsa, Lalor 4/1jf
0-0-0-Placed-Won
The first handicap of the Festival and the first real challenge for punters although favourites have finished with a place and a win in the last two years.
Current favourite: Give Me A Copper 6/1
0-Won-Won-0-Won
Buveur D'Air won at odds-on in 2018 to break Mullins' straglehold on this race, who had been responsible for the favourite in four of the previious five years with three of them winning.
Current favourite: Apples Jade, Buveur Dair 9/4jf
Won-0-Won-Placed-Placed
This race reverted to type last year with Mullins' trained Benie Des Dieux taking home the spoils to make it nine wins in ten years for the prolific trainer. Two wins and two places in the last five years makes this race a strong one for favourites.
Current favourite: Apple's Jade 8/11
0-0-Placed-0-0
The 4 miler has very kind to the bookies in recent years with only one of the last four favourites placing in the last five years.
Current favourite: Ok Corral 3/1
Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
0-Placed-0-0-0
The final race on day one has not been one for favourite backers with no winners in the last 5 years and just one place. That was Thomas Crapper in 2015.
Current favourite: Riders Onthe Storm 15/2
Day Two
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Won | Placed | Placed | Placed | Won | Two |
| RSA Chase | Placed | Won | Placed | Won | Won | Three |
| Coral Cup | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | Placed | None |
| Queen Mother Champion Chase/td> | Won | 0 | Placed | 0 | Won | Two |
| Cross Country Chase | Placed | 0 | Won | Placed | Placed | One |
| Fred Winter | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | Placed | None |
| Champion Bumper | Placed | Won | 0 | 0 | 0 | One |
Won-Placed-Placed-Placed-Won
Day two normally starts with another short-priced favourite and have generally fared well, winning twice and placing three times.
Current favourite: Champ 3/1
Placed-Won-Placed-Won-Won
One of the best races for favourite backers. Over the last five years three have obliged with a win, with Presenting Percy (11/4) winning at a canter last year to make it successive victories for favourites.
Current favourite: Delta Work 2/1
0-Placed-0-0-Placed
Not one for favourites with the handicap puzzle that is the Coral Cup, where there hasn’t been a winning favourite in any of the last five years with just two managing to place.
Current favourite: Uradel 7/1
Won-0-Placed-0-Won
More short-priced favourites and more groans from racegoers in recent years. Un De Sceaux and Sizing Europe have both been turned over at odds-on in the last five years in a race with just two winning favourites – Sire De Grugy 11/4 in 2014 and, more positively, last year with Altior (Evens).
Current favourite: Altior 4/9
Placed-0-Won-Placed-Placed
The unpredictable nature of the Cross Country course has made it tough for punters to find the winner with 2016’s winner Josies Orders the only winning favourite in the last five years, though three favourites have placed in recent years. Last year's winner Tiger Roll goes in at the shortest priced favourite over those five years.
Current favourite: Tiger Roll 11/10
0-0-0-Placed-Placed
Another handicap and another graveyard for favourites. 2017 and 2018 broke the run of no placed favourites though, with Divin Bere and Nube Negra finishing second and third respectively.
Current favourite: Band of Outlaws 6/1
Placed-Won-0-0-0
Anyone chasing their losses in the final race on day two haven’t found the answer by backing the favourite in four of the last five years. Only Moon Racer (9/2) in 2015 has done the business in recent years, with only one of the other four managing to place.
Current favourite: Blue Sari 4/1
Day Three
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JLT | 0 | Won | Won | Won | Placed | Three |
| Pertemps Final | Won | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | One |
| Ryanair Chase | Won | Placed | Won | Won | Placed | Three |
| Stayers’ Hurdle | Placed | Placed | Won | Placed | 0 | One |
| Brown Advisory Plate | Placed | Placed | 0 | 0 | Won | One |
| Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle | 0 | 0 | Won | Won | Won | Three |
| Kim Muir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | None |
0-Won-Won-Won-Placed
Favourite backers have enjoyed success in three of the last five years with the Willie Mullins trio of Black Hercules (4/1), Vautour (6/4) and Yorkhill (6/4) all landing the odds. Last year's favourite, Invitation Only, could only manage a place to break that run of three successive wins.
Current favourite: Lostintranslation 3/1
Won-0-0-0-Placed
There’s a theme developing here. Another handicap, another bloodbath for favourites. Only 2014 winner Fingal Bay (9/2) can buck the trend with one placed effort from Glencoe in 2018.
Current favourite: Sire Du Berlais 6/1
Won-Placed-Won-Won-Placed
Three wins in the last five years for favourites with the other two both placed. One of the few races we can all agree is punter friendly! Un De Sceaux (11/4), under the stewardship of the Mullins/Walsh duo, could not follow up the win in 2017 thugh and only managed a place last year.
Current favourite: Footpad 4/1
Placed-Placed-Won-Placed-0
2010, 2011 and 2012 were the glory years for fans of the favourite as the legendary Big Buck’s completed his run of four straight victories in this race. Since then six other favourites have tried to emulate the National Hunt hero with only 2016’s winner Thistlecrack able to oblige.
Current favourite: Paisley Park 7/4
Placed-Placed-0-0-Won
Since 2012 only two of the next four managed to place making this a difficult race to predict. Tully East bucked that trend last year with a win at 8/1.
Current favourite: Janika 8/1
--Won-Won-Won
100% strike rate for favourites in the history of the race. In its three year life the race has instantly found favour with favourite backers after Limini, Let's Dance and Laurina tasted success in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively.
Current favourite: Epatante 15/8
0-0-0-0-Placed
It's a handicap. One place in five years.
Current favourite: Measureofmydreams 6/1
Day Four
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triumph Hurdle | Placed | Won | Won | Won | 0 | Three |
| County Hurdle | 0 | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
| Albert Bartlett | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Placed | None |
| The Gold Cup | 0 | 0 | Won | 0 | Placed | One |
| Foxhunter Chase | 0 | Placed | Won | 0 | 0 | One |
| Martin Pipe | 0 | Placed | 0 | 0 | 0 | None |
| Grand Annual | Placed | Placed | Placed | 0 | 0 | None |
Placed-Won-Won-Won-0
The final day. One last chance to beat the bookies. And for three of the last five years it has been the perfect start for the punting public, with three winning favourites putting bookies on the back foot early doors.
Current favourite: Sir Erec 11/8
0-0-Placed-0-0
The handicaps don’t get much easier as the week goes on and it’s painful reading for favourites over the last five years with just one place to show for their efforts.
Current favourite: Wonder Laish 8/1
0-0-0-0-Placed
Another race where there have been some favourites sent off at a short price and have been turned over. A competitive race is in store this time out with Commander Of Fleet the 7/1 favourite.
Current favourite: Commander Of Fleet 7/1
0-0-Won-0-Placed
It’s not easy to train a Gold Cup winner and over the last five years it’s not been any easier to back one either. Don Cossack (9/4) in 2016 is the only winning favourite during that period, with Might Bite beaten by Native River in 2018.
Current favourite: Presenting Percy 4/1
0-Placed-Won-0-0
One winning favourite from the last five, with On The Fringe (13/8) landing some big bets in 2016.
Current favourite: Stand Up And Fight 9/2
0-Placed-0-0-0
Favourite backers are best-advised to leave the building at this point as it’s not pretty from here on in. Just one favourite has managed at least a place in the last five runnings of the prodigiously difficult HANDICAP.
Current favourite: Dallas des Pictons 6/1
Placed-Placed-Placed-0-0
By this point you’re either punch drunk on your betting success or just literally drunk from Guinness. Either way, it’s probably best to keep your money in your pocket if you’re backing the favourite with no wins in the last five years.
Current favourite: Magic Saint 6/1
TrendsDay one and day three have, over the last five years, been the most prolific in terms of pre-race favourite winners with twelve. Day two saw three of its nine total winners last year, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues. Day four is definitely one to back the outsiders, with a pultry five favourite wins in the last five years.
None of the races at Cheltenham have produced winners from the favourites in each of the five years but there are a few to look out for. The Arkle comes close with four wins and one place. There are multiple races with three wins which are the Champion Hurdle, RSA Chase, JLT Ryanair Chase, Mares' Novices Hurdle and Triumph Hurdle.
