Daryl Carter brings you all the key stats and trends for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Alongside his work on the key race trials for nine races at Cheltenham, Daryl Carter will also be bringing Oddschecker readers all the key stats and trends to help with narrow down the runners and hopefully find some winners.
The Supreme Novice Hurdle will raise the curtain on four sublime days of high class horse racing and plenty of punters will be looking to trainer Willie Mullins to get their Cheltenham week off to a flying start. The Irish trainer has an outstanding record in the race, winning the contest four times and filling the runner-up spot twice past ten years.
Below I have highlighted some stats and trends that any savvy punter looking to make it pay at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020 will want on their side, and here I point out the stats that matter from more recent times.
Past Winners:
|
YEAR |
WINNER |
AGE |
WGT |
SP |
TRAINER |
JOCKEY |
RPR |
|
2019 |
Klassical Dream |
5 |
11-7 |
6/1 |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
158 |
|
2018 |
Summerville Boy |
6 |
11-7 |
9/1 |
Tom George |
Noel Fehily |
156 |
|
2017 |
Labaik |
6 |
11-7 |
25/1 |
Gordon Elliott |
Jack Kennedy |
157 |
|
2016 |
Altior |
6 |
11-7 |
4/1 |
Nicky Henderson |
Nico de Boinville |
166 |
|
2015 |
Douvan |
5 |
11-7 |
2/1F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
160 |
|
2014 |
Vautour |
5 |
11-7 |
7/2J |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
158 |
|
2013 |
Champagne Fever |
6 |
11-7 |
5/1 |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
164 |
|
2012 |
Cinders And Ashes |
5 |
11-7 |
10/1 |
Donald McCain |
Jason Maguire |
151 |
|
2011 |
Al Ferof |
6 |
11-7 |
10/1 |
Paul Nicholls |
R Walsh |
155 |
|
2010 |
Menorah |
5 |
11-7 |
12/1 |
Philip Hobbs |
Richard Johnson |
150 |
At A Glance - 10 year trends
Age counts:
5 and 6yo’s have held a stronghold over the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the past decade winning all 10/10 renewals. The overall breakdown by age is as follows: 5yo – 5 wins, 6yos – 5 wins.
You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the only 7yo (Captain Cee Bee) to win the race since 1995. 4yo’s have failed to win the race since 1999.
Price Matters:
Average SP winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle is 9.65/1. Only two favourites have won the race in the past 10 years, both of which were trained by Willie Mullins.
Britain or Ireland?
A fierce battle between the two has seen the Irish come out on top in recent years winning 5 of the last 7 races. However, the score currently stands at 5-5 between the two rivals.
Recent run:
6 of the past 10 winners have all had a run within 45 days of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
2019 winner Klassical Dream had a break of 37 days prior to his race. The average is 44.2 days.
Only two horses have won the race with less than a 30-day break in the past 10 years and they were Menorah in 2010 (24 days) and Labaik in 2017 (16 days).
Last Start:
Horses that have started in Handicap Company on their latest start are 0-51 with only 7 places. Avoid the Betfair Hurdle winner!
Official rating:
Official ratings between 142 and 155. However, in the last seven years, only one winner has been rated below 150 and that was Labaik at 25/1.
A winner last time out:
8/10 won on their last start before running in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Only Labaik and Menorah have bucked the trend in the past 10 years. Labaik finished sixth on his previous start with Menorah beaten at Ascot at odds of 1/2f into second.
What to look for
• A 5yo or 6yo
• Odds of 10/1 or shorter
• Has run over 2m last time out
• Official rating of 149+
• Has recorded a Racing Post Rating of 149+ on more than one occasion
• Has won more than once that season
• Won last time out
• Has course experience
• Has run in the last 8 weeks but not in the last 4 weeks
In depth table stat analysis (in partnership with Dave Young)
Below I have highlighted a range of stat figures based on the past 10 winners of the race and these can be used to better effect closer to the time of the race. Some hold serious in-depth information. The below table highlights the average, maximum and minimum on a range of subjects including age, starting price, trip last time out, official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, top speed figures and trip.
|
Top Age |
5yo/6yo (5) |
|
Top Jockey |
Ruby Walsh (5) |
|
Top Trainer |
Willie Mullins (4) |
|
Course Raced at LTO |
Leopardstown (3) |
|
|
|
|
Average Age |
5.5 |
|
Max Age |
6 |
|
Min Age |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Average SP |
9.65 |
|
Max SP |
26 |
|
Min SP |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Average Trip LTO (f) |
16.4 |
|
Max Trip LTO (f) |
18 |
|
Min Trip LTO (f) |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
Average OR |
149.2 |
|
Max OR |
155 |
|
Min OR |
142 |
|
|
|
|
Average RPR |
148.1 |
|
Max RPR |
157 |
|
Min RPR |
142 |
|
|
|
|
Average Top Speed |
123.5 |
|
Max TS |
149 |
|
Min TS |
99 |
|
|
|
|
Average Max Trip (f) |
16 |
|
Max Max Trip (f) |
16.5 |
|
Min Max Trip (f) |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
Average Min Trip (f) |
18.05 |
|
Max Min Trip (f) |
20.5 |
|
Min Min Trip (f) |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run at Course |
5/10 |
|
Had Won at Course |
2/10 |
|
Had Won LTO |
8/10 |
|
Unbeaten at Course |
2/5 |
|
Unbeaten that Season |
4/10 |
|
Won More Than Once That Season |
9/10 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run in Last 3 Weeks |
1/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 4 Weeks |
2/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 5 Weeks |
5/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 6 Weeks |
6/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 7 Weeks |
6/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 8 Weeks |
7/10 |
