Arkle Chase: The key race trials

Which races?

•    Wayward Lad Novice Grade 2 Kempton in December
•    Racing Post Arkle Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown in December

 Wayward Lad Novice Grade 2 run at Kempton 

Wow! @benpauling1 has got his team absolutely flying again!

Global Citizen puts an ordinary run on his seasonal return well behind him with a swashbuckling all-the-way win under David Bass in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at @kemptonparkrace.

Fantastic performance. pic.twitter.com/CC2T7CDLUQ

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 27, 2019

Race Analysis: 

The Ben Pauling trained Global Citizen impressed when making all in this Grade 2 contest and the free going sort set a respectable time, just six seconds outside standard. The race was run 4.1 seconds quicker than the below-par renewal of the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase on the same card. 

Global Citizen was fitted with a first-time tongue-tie and was his first start for 64 days after failing to impress on Chase debut at Carlisle back in October. He took his form to a new level here jumping well throughout the contest although, slightly left on occasions, but showed a game attitude at the finish to hold off his rivals on the run-in where there were three in with a chance of winning the race. 

In second place was Rouge Vif, who ran without a hood for the first time in over a year and occupied the second position throughout the entire race but failed to peg back the winner after the final flight. 

The eye-catching effort came from short-priced and unplaced favourite Fanion D’Estruval, who was given plenty to do from a hold-up-position on a track that favours front runners and despite making a few errors at his fences he was beaten less than five lengths.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Global Citizen is still unexposed over fences but he is also well-known for his flat-track bully tactics and he is at his best with an uncontested lead which is exactly what he got on this occasion. Everything was in his favour that day and he will likely be seen to best effect on a flat track again and is perhaps one to consider for Aintree, rather than Cheltenham.

The bookmakers halved his odds in the wake of this victory in what could prove to be a drastic overreaction based on the conditions of the race. He sits seventh in the market at the time of writing at a best price of 16/1, with one bookmaker making him as short as 12/1. 

Despite Fanion D’Estruval catching the eye the poor record for five-year-olds in the Arkle means it is unlikely the race this year has produced the 2020 Arkle winner. This race is usually a strong enough indication of the British hopefuls and it doesn’t look good for team GB this term.

Recent winners: 

This is a  race in recent years that has been used by Nicky Henderson as a springboard for the Grade 1 contest in March with Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Altior all going on to be victorious at the Cheltenham Festival after winning the Wayward Lad Novice Chase. 

However, while it has been prosperous for that particular trainer, it hasn’t been so kind to many other trainers in recent years, although it does rate a solid race trial for the best of the British contenders. 

The Irish dominance over the division can usually be seen by the quality of this particular race at Christmas. God’s Own is the only horse to have been beaten in this race and go on to place in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival finishing second in 2015. Paul Nicholls is another trainer that likes to target this race. He has won four of the last six renewals but 2018 winner Dynamite Dollars was plagued with injury and missed the 2019 Arkle Chase at Cheltenham and his representative this term doesn’t look up to the standard of previous Arkle Winners.

Winners produced: 3 (all trained by Nicky Henderson)

 Racing Post Arkle Chase Grade 1 run at Leopardstown

Notebook over fences:

3 races
3 wins
G1 Racing Post Novice Chase

Honeysuckle, Aspire Tower, Chris's Dream, Minella Indo & Notebook - the star names just keep on coming for @HenrydeBromhead & @rachaelblackmor as Notebook records a G1 victory @LeopardstownRC pic.twitter.com/yUQ9POgVwx

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 26, 2019

Race Analysis:  

Henry De Bromhead’s Notebook was a powerful winner of the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase taking his record to 3/3 over fences. Sent off at un-fancied odds of 7/1 on the day but as big as 9/1 the morning of the race he turned over the two talking horses and market leaders Laurina and Fakir D’Oudairies.

Notebook settled in second position throughout the race and jumped slightly right on occasions following the pace setters movements but jumped straight enough once taking up the running on the turn for home. Henry De Bromhead's runner jumped well throughout the contest until getting in tight at the third last but was clever not to lose any ground at his fences. He quickened up well and was strong at the finish always holding the runner-up who failed to make up any ground on the winner between the final flight and the finish line. 

Mark Walsh aboard Fakir D’Oudairies caught his riding Iron on another rider's equipment which may have lost him half a length in the process but it was ultimately Notebook who stole the show with his electric jumping and powerful sectional timings.

Laurina had a valid excuse for her poor show after a vet's examination flagged up a burst blood vessel but she was ultimately uncomfortable with the 2m pace being set in the early part of the race and always looked to be travelling a yard slower than the remainder of the field.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Notebook must be taken seriously as the leading Irish contender for the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival with him now heading the market at 3/1.

Runner-up Fakir D’Oudairies has now lost his weight for age (7lb) allowance and he will have to face Notebook off level weights in March. 

The stiff uphill finish of the Cheltenham track will certainly favour Notebook and with his jumping an asset the danger fence as I like to call it (three out) should prove no issue at all. I’ve rarely seen a Novice with such a perfected jumping technique as Notebook has and losing minimal ground at individual fences will stand him in good stead at the Festival in March.

With the lack of depth to the British Novice 2m Chase division highlighted by the above Wayward Lad trial there is plenty to like about this winner and he is certainly one to keep on side. 

Recent Winners: 

A leading key race trial from either side of the Irish Sea and an outstanding indication toward the Arkle result in recent times. The Racing Post Novice Arkle Chase in Ireland has produced three horses that have gone on to win both races in the past ten years including Sizing Europe, Douvan and Footpad. 

Le Richebourg unfortunately missed the race through injury but was a heavily fancied ante-post favourite after landing this race in 2018. Us and Them, finished runner-up in this race and filled the same spot at the Cheltenham Festival. 

Years 2010, 2013 and 2016 all produced horses that had placed in the first three at Cheltenham, with three thirds and two seconds making this a significant key trial.

 Winners Produced: 3

Which horse to take from the trials?

In truth, it’s difficult to be impressed with any of the British contenders at this stage and that would lead you to believe that the winner may be lying in wait in Ireland. Notebook, winner of the Racing Post Arkle Trial did more than throw his name into the hat having impressed with his electric jumping and powerful nature. With that race having such a good record of producing Festival winners and his sectional timings to back up his impressive performances he may well prove hard to beat.

Playing devil's advocate, the one concern you could perhaps, have with Notebook, was his lowly rating of 135 over hurdles. 

However, to put that worry to bed he only had six hurdles starts and just three of those over 2m with form figures reading 212 and he has always had the physique of a chaser which is now to his advantage. On the pick of those three hurdle runs, he has beaten the current Arkle third favourite Cash Back, who achieved a rating of 141 on the back of that performance and Janidil of Willie Mullins who remains unbeaten since and is a leading fancy at the Cheltenham Festival himself.

All eyes were on Notebook at Leopardstown in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival and he passed that test with flying colours despite playing up in the parade ring beforehand and it is highly likely the dual Grade 1 winner is a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting.

Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.