Daryl Carter brings you all the key stats and trends for the Arkle Chase.
*Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.
The Arkle Challenge Trophy is a Grade 1 Novice Chase run over 2m on the opening day of the meeting and is run on the old course. Willie Mullins, just like in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, is a trainer who has held dominance over the race in recent years, training four of the last five winners. In 2019 the Irish trainer landed a 41/1 double in the opening two races of the Festival and won both races in 2015.
Short and sweet but below I have highlighted some ten year stats and trends that any savvy punter looking to make it pay at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020 will want on their side heading into this year’s Arkle Challenge Trophy.
2019 Winner Duc Des Genievres trained by Willie Mullins ran out an emphatic winner of the contest on heavy ground clocking an eye catching time of 3m58s with a SP of 5/1.
Duc Des Genievres takes the win in the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 12, 2019
It's two wins in two races for @WillieMullinsNH!
Watch the #CheltenhamFestival LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/yJAQUL6Ws7
Past Winners:
|
YEAR |
WINNER |
AGE |
WGT |
SP |
TRAINER |
JOCKEY |
RPR |
|
2019 |
Duc Des Genievres |
6 |
11-4 |
5/1 |
W P Mullins |
Paul Townend |
166 |
|
2018 |
Footpad |
6 |
11-4 |
5/6F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
170 |
|
2017 |
Altior |
7 |
11-4 |
1/4F |
Nicky Henderson |
Nico de Boinville |
169 |
|
2016 |
Douvan |
6 |
11-4 |
1/4F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
165 |
|
2015 |
Un De Sceaux |
7 |
11-4 |
4/6F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
169 |
|
2014 |
Western Warhorse |
6 |
11-4 |
33/1 |
David Pipe |
Tom Scudamore |
161 |
|
2013 |
Simonsig |
7 |
11-7 |
8/15F |
Nicky Henderson |
Barry Geraghty |
163 |
|
2012 |
Sprinter Sacre |
6 |
11-7 |
8/11F |
Nicky Henderson |
Barry Geraghty |
176 |
|
2011 |
Captain Chris |
7 |
11-7 |
6/1 |
Philip Hobbs |
Richard Johnson |
168 |
|
2010 |
Sizing Europe |
8 |
11-7 |
6/1 |
Henry De Bromhead |
A E Lynch |
166 |
At a glance - 10 year trends
Age counts:
6 and 7yo’s have dominated the headlines in the race over the past 10 years. The overall breakdown by age is as follows: 6yo – 5 wins, 7yo – 4 wins.
Price matters:
6 of the last 10 winners have been favourites: all 6 of those have been odds-on at SP prices of 8/11, 8/15, 4/6, 1/4, 1/4, 5/6. Three of those were trained by Nicky Henderson and three trained by Willie Mullins.
Britain or Ireland?
Head to head over the past ten years both nations come out level with 5 winners each. Irish dominance in more recent years has been highlighted with three Irish trained horses filling the places in the 2019 renewal despite the field an even split with a total of twelve runners going to post, 6 Irish and 6 English.
Recent Run:
Average break for a typical Arkle winner is 44.7 days. No runner has won the race with less than a 17 day break and no more than an 80 day break.
Last Start:
Horses running over trips of 2m or 2m1f have an excellent record in the race.
Official Rating:
Western Warhorse in 2014 is the lowest rated horse to win the race in the past 10 years with an official rating of 135. The average rating for an Arkle winner is 158. Duc Des Genievres (150) was the second lowest rated.
A winner last time out:
10/10 previous winners of the Arkle Chase have won on their latest start prior to the race.
In-depth analysis (in partnership with Dave Young)
Below we have highlighted a range of stat figures based on the past 10 winners of the race and these can be used to better affect closer to the time of the race. Some hold serious in-depth information. The below table highlights the average, maximum and minimum on a range of subjects including age, starting price, trip last time out, official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, top speed figures and trip (distance run prior). Course form has been added along with recent runs of the past 10 winners.
|
Top Age |
6yo (5) |
|
Top Jockey |
Ruby Walsh (3) |
|
Top Trainer |
Willie Mullins (4) |
|
Course Raced at LTO |
Leopardstown (4) |
|
|
|
|
Average Age |
6.6 |
|
Max Age |
8 |
|
Min Age |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Average SP |
6.33 |
|
Max SP |
34 |
|
Min SP |
1.25 |
|
|
|
|
Average Trip LTO |
17.7 |
|
Max Trip LTO |
20.5 |
|
Min Trip LTO |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Average OR |
158.4 |
|
Max OR |
170 |
|
Min OR |
135 |
|
|
|
|
Average RPR |
165 |
|
Max RPR |
175 |
|
Min RPR |
143 |
|
|
|
|
Average TS |
138.8 |
|
Max TS |
160 |
|
Min TS |
118 |
|
|
|
|
Average Max Trip |
16.45 |
|
Max Max Trip |
19 |
|
Min Max Trip |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
Average Min Trip |
18.85 |
|
Max Min Trip |
24.5 |
|
Min Min Trip |
16.5 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run at Course |
9/10 |
|
Had Won at Course |
5/10 |
|
Had Won LTO |
10/10 |
|
Unbeaten at Course |
3/10 |
|
Unbeaten that Season |
6/10 |
|
Won More Than Once That Season |
7/10 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run in Last 3 Weeks |
1/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 4 Weeks |
3/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 5 Weeks |
4/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 6 Weeks |
5/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 7 Weeks |
6/10 |
|
Had Run in Last 8 Weeks |
7/10 |
What to look for
• A 6yo or 7yo
• SP odds of 7/1 or shorter (odds-on favourites have a great record 6/6)
• Had run over 2m/ 2m1f last time out
• Has an Official Rating of 158 +
• Has hit a Racing Post Rating of 165 +
• Unbeaten that season
• Had won last time out
• Had course experience
• Had run in the past 8 weeks
Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.
