Ballymore Novies' Hurdle: The key race trials

The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 Hurdle race run on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival. The race is open to horses aged four years and older and is run over 2m5f. 

Some of the races you see throughout this article may not be key race trials in name, but have either produced winners at the Cheltenham Festival, an array of placed horses or include those featured prominently in the betting. Below I have highlighted three key race trials that have been essential pieces of form analysis for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. With each of the three trials I have found it important to add small race analysis to ensure that the bare form and the result of the race can be relied upon.

It can pay to link the key race trials to the stats and trends for the race, which will can be found in the Cheltenham tips folder on Oddschecker

The intermediate trip of the Ballymore has been one of the toughest key trial pieces to write and asses due to horses running over a variety of trips prior to the race.

Which races? 

•    Grade 1 Challow Hurdle – Newbury
•    Grade 2 Leamington Novice Hurdle – Warwick 
•    Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle - Leopardstown

Grade 1 Challow Hurdle – Newbury

Grade One winner!

Thyme Hill (4-6F) is very smart and makes it three from three over hurdles in the Challow at @NewburyRacing @PJHobbs1 @dickyjohnson77 pic.twitter.com/YN1VdQQEZt

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 28, 2019

Analysis: 

Phillip Hobbs’ runner Thyme Hill maintained his unbeaten record with victory here and claimed his first at the highest level but was ultimately make to work hard for it by the gutsy runner-up who pushed him all the way to the line. 

Thyme Hill was held up in the five-runner field and made smooth headway before the penultimate hurdle, always travelling stronger than his closest market rival, The Cashel Man, who was rated 143 prior to this race. Thyme Hill took up the lead at the final flight despite making a minor error but under pressure inside the final furlong Phillip Hobbs’ runner hung left. He was asked for maximum effort to put the race to bed inside the final 100 yards. The soft ground was likely a hindrance to the runner-up on the day but there were no obvious excuses for any of the other runners. 

The handicapper clearly took a positive view from the performance by giving the winner a 3lb rise in the weights up to a mark of 150. Interestingly enough the runner-up was raised 4lbs for the run to a mark of 147 highlighting my view that the runner-up likely took a step forward rather than the winner on this occasion.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Thyme Hill’s form prior to this race had been boosted time and time again and holds some serious depth. Bookmakers cut him into as short as 8/1 for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle once crossing the finish line which seemed a slight overreaction on the basis of this particular performance. He is not at all flashy in the manner of his victories but he keeps getting the job done, he is tough and genuine, but may lack the star quality of a Ballymore winner. He is a best price of 12/1 at the time of writing. 

Connections have the option of stepping up in trip to the Albert Bartlett but for the time being he looks one of the leading contenders for the Ballymore from this side of the Irish Sea. 

Recent Winners: 

The Challow Hurdle, like many of the key trial races for this division, has always been tipped as a strong British indicator for the race at Cheltenham Festival in March. However, despite only three of the last ten winners going on to be placed in the race at the festival to make it worthy of this list, it has failed to produce one single winner of the race. 

Messire Des Obeaux, Champ and Parlour Games all finished in the first three places after winning this race in their respective years.

However, it is worth studying due to the high number of people that believe it rates as a solid trial. These horses are usually over bet in the market, which can create value elsewhere. 

Winners Produced: 0 

Grade 2 Leamington Novices' Hurdle

Seven years since teaming up to take this with The New One, Nigel Twiston-Davies and @samtwiston are at it again in the @ballymore Leamington Novices' Hurdle at @WarwickRaces.

Full of heart, Mossy Fen outstays his rivals to land the Grade 2!

Results > https://t.co/BnGTfBq5GU pic.twitter.com/w1rc81n5HC

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 11, 2020

Analysis: 

A wide open betting heat and a race scuppered by SP favourite Harry Senior unseating his rider on the way to the start and being withdrawn. Mossy Fen had previously finished fourth in a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham when last seen but improved to land this competitive race. He raced off the pace was but in touch with the front runners and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ mount came home strongest of all despite showing signs of greenness in the closing stages. 

The front trio got racing quite a way from home and Mossy Fen had plenty to do on the turn into the straight but stamina kicked in once jumping the last hurdle and he gamely battled off the 145 rated Décor Ilandais. Mossy Fen’s closing sectionals were smart and the race was run at a strong gallop finishing one second quicker from the third last hurdle to the finish line than in the 0-110 Handicap Hurdle over 2m.

Shan Blue who finished third likely did too much too soon and faded inside the final 100 yards. He was always on the thick end of things forcing the pace for much of the race and looks the horse to take out of the race. 

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Mossy Fen will have no trouble over further on the basis of this evidence and it’s quite likely that 3m may well bring out further improvement in the horse. His trainer used this race as a prep run for stable star and previous Ballymore Hurdle winner, The New One, which suggests that this is the route they may take. Bookies currently rate him a 50/1 chance for the Ballymore, so they were obviously not very impressed with him. The Albert Bartlett could be another option for connections, which he is quoted at 25/1 for. However, on the basis of this performance it’s hard to be over enthusiastic about his Cheltenham Festival chances with others in the race such as Shan Blue paying for doing too much too soon.   

Recent winners: 

This is a fascinating trial race for both the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett. Two winners of this race in the past ten years have gone on to win the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and they are The New One and Willoughby Court.

This race does produce horses that will run at the Cheltenham Festival so it’s certainly worth taking note here. Simply focusing on the winners of the race, 6/10 have gone straight to their respective races in March directly after this race. All bar The New One and Cotton Mill went off at double figure odds on the day for the Ballymore.

Three winners of this race have gone on to run in the Albert Bartlett finishing 3rd, 2nd and Mr Whipped in 2018 was pulled up. 

Winners Produced: 2

Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle)

@WillieMullinsNH & the G1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle @LeopardstownRC:

2020 - Asterion Forlonge
2019 - Klassical Dream
2017 - Bacardys
2016 - Bleu Et Rouge
2015 - Nichols Canyon
2014 - Vautour
2013 - Champagne Fever
1999 - Alexander Banquet pic.twitter.com/iBsuNGqndj

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 2, 2020

Analysis: 

Asterion Forlonge went off at 4/1 and made most of the running to win this contest by 9 ½ lengths. Easywork, the market leader (5/4) followed him home in second with Mt Leinster 13 ½ lengths third.

It was an impressive display by the six-year-old who is now unbeaten in four career starts including a point to point over 2m4f. He raced from the front and forced a very strong pace throughout the contest. He jumped to his right on occasions but lost very minimal ground when doing so. Easywork pressed Asterion Forlonge for the lead throughout the contest before being unable to sustain the ferocious gallop once turning into the home straight. Willie Mullins’ runner powered away from his rivals and kept up a strong gallop to the line to run out a ready winner. 

The official overall race times were one second quicker than the Grade 1 Juvenile race on the card. The sectional timings suggest that the race was run at a much quicker pace in the early part of the race and they maintained that gallop throughout the contest. At no point during the race where they behind the Juvenile’s.

An impressive performance by the winner on the clock and the bare form of the race looks worthwhile. The second Easywork, had earned his rating of 146 prior to this race by running on heavy ground and the yielding conditions here may not have suited him. However, Easywork confirmed the form with Mt Leinster, from when the pair had already met back in November, putting further distance between himself and that rival on this occasion. Blue Sari continues to disappoint this term and the race should not be rated around that horse. 

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham Glory? 

Forget about the rest in this race, Asterion Forlonge has to rate a huge player at Cheltenham for whichever race connections decide to go for. He proved that a strong early gallop suits him by running excellent sectional timings here and maintaining that all the way to the line. Despite the quick pace of the race, he still clocked a time of 16 seconds from the last hurdle to the line, the same as the Juveniles. Where he goes at Cheltenham remains to be seen, but he is currently a best price of 8/1 for the Ballymore. 

Recent winners: 

This race in the past ten years has produced a plethora of winners for many races at the Cheltenham Festival and rates a leading key trial race for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

However, in the past ten years 69 horses have competed in this race and 12 have gone on to run in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle producing 2 winners as well as a 3rd and 4th. An excellent strike-rate for those runners that chose to step up in trip!

In 2018 Samcro easily brushed aside his rivals for victory here before going on to win the Ballymore Novice Hurdle in impressive fashion.

In 2015 Nichols Canyon and Windsor Park fought out the finish and the pair renewed their rivalry in the Ballymore with Windsor Park coming out on top at Cheltenham. Nichols Canyon finished third.

2011 winner, Oscars Well, went onto finish fourth in the Ballymore. 

Winners Produced: 2

Who to take from the trials?

As mentioned in the intro, this key trial piece has been difficult to assess but Asterion Forlonge has the world at his feet and could run in a variety of races such as the nature of his key trial suggests. However, should connections decide to step up in trip and take on Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, he is the one who would likely pose the biggest threat to Gordon Elliot’s stable star. Next on my list would be Thyme Hill, but they may opt for the the Albert Bartlett instead. 

Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.