Ballymore Novices' Hurdle - 10 year Stats and Trends

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The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle is a race that has been dominated by six-year-olds in the past ten years. It is a race that has produced some top class horses throughout history including three-time Champion Hurdler Istabraq and two-time Champion Hurdler Hardy Eustace. Despite being further in distance than the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the Ballymore has produced more Champion Hurdle horses. Willie Mullins, yet again, is the dominant trainer in this race having won the race twice in the past ten years.

Short and sweet but below I have highlighted some ten-year stats and trends that any savvy punter looking to make it pay at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020 will want on their side heading into this year’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle.

The 2019 running saw the sponsors own horse land the race in City Island. City Island was untried in Graded Company before this race but took the step up in class in his stride. 

City Island takes the win in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at @CheltenhamRaces!

Mark Walsh has a second winner of the meeting

Watch the #CheltenhamFestival LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/LlvzTgnnFC

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 13, 2019

Past winners: 

At a glance- 10 year trends 

Age Counts:

6yo’s have dominated this race in recent years winning 8/10 renewals with 5yo’s landing the other two. 7yo’s and older horses have a terrible record throughout the history of the race although in 2019 Nicky Henderson’s Champ did manage to finish second in the race. 

Price matters: 

3/10 favourites have won the race with winners having an average SP of 7/1.

Britain or Ireland?

6/10 winners have been Irish trained horses and their stronghold over the race is highlighted by winning five of the last six renewals of the race.

Recent run:

The average distance run by the last ten winners prior to the race is 2m3f. 7/10 had never run over a trip this far with only Faugheen (2014) The New One (2013) and Willoughby Court (2017) having tried trips of this distance or further. 

Official Rating:

Past winners have an average official rating of 149 with 2016 winner Yorkhill having the highest rating at the time of running at 156. Samcro came a close second with 155.

A winner last time out:

8/10 winners had won last time out, Windsor Park and The New One were the only two beaten in their race prior to their Ballymore victory.

In-depth stat analysis (in partnership with Dave Young) 

Below we have highlighted a range of stat figures based on the past 10 winners of the race and these can be used to better effect closer to the time of the race. Some hold serious in-depth information. The below table highlights the average, maximum and minimum on a range of subjects including age, starting price, trip last time out, official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, top speed figures and trip (distance run prior). Course form has been added along with recent runs of the past 10 winners.

Top Age	6yo (8)
Top Jockey	Ruby Walsh/Davy Russell (2)
Top Trainer	Willie Mullins (2)
Course Raced at LTO	Leopardstown (3)
Average Age	5.8
Max Age	6
Min Age	5
Average SP	6.12
Max SP	15
Min SP	1.73
Average Trip LTO (f)	18.5
Max Trip LTO (f)	24
Min Trip LTO (f)	16
Average OR	149.3
Max OR	156
Min OR	142
Average RPR	150.5
Max RPR	158
Min RPR	145
Average TS	114.7
Max TS	128
Min TS	92
Average Max Trip (f)	17.15
Max Max Trip (f)	20.5
Min Max Trip (f)	14
Average Min Trip (f)	20.35
Max Min Trip (f)	24
Min Min Trip (f)	16.5
Had Run at Course	1/10
Had Won at Course	1/10
Had Won LTO	8/10
Unbeaten at Course	0/1
Unbeaten that Season	4/10
Won More Than Once That Season	4/10
Had Run in Last 3 Weeks	0/10
Had Run in Last 4 Weeks	1/10
Had Run in Last 5 Weeks	3/10
Had Run in Last 6 Weeks	4/10
Had Run in Last 7 Weeks	5/10
Had Run in Last 8 Weeks	5/10

What to look for

•    A 6yo
•    SP odds of 7/1 or shorter
•    Is stepping up in trip
•    Official Rating of 149 +
•    Has hit a Racing Post Rating of 150 +
•    Has won last time out
•    Has run in the past 7 or 8 weeks

Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.

Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.

 

Yr	Winner	Age	SP	Distance	Time	Going	Form	Rating	Trainer	Jockey	Video
2019	Envoi Allen	5	2/1F	3/4L	3.55.90	Soft (Good to Soft in places)	1-111	127	Gordon Elliott	J J Codd
2018	Relegate	5	25/1	1 ½L	4.4.10	Soft (Heavy in places)	11	120	Willie Mullins	Katie Walsh	View
2017	Fayonagh	6	7/1	1 ¼L	3.51.10	Good to Soft	811	129	Gordon Elliott	JJ Codd	View
2016	Ballyandy	5	5/1	Nse	3.48.20	Good	1-121	136	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Sam Twiston-Davies
2015	Moon Racer	6	9/2	1 1/2 L	3.49.50	Good	1-1	140	David Pipe	Tom Scudamore	View
2014	Silver Concorde	6	16/1	1 ½L	3.43.40	Good	3-2-1	140	Dermot Weld	Robbie McNamara	View
2013	Briar Hill	5	25/1	7L	3.54.70	Good/Soft	1	141	Willie Mullins	Ruby Walsh
2012	Champagne Fever	5	16/1	1 1/4L	3.47.50	Good	21	142	Willie Mullins	Patrick Mullins	View
2011	Cheltenian	5	14/1	5L	3.51.85	Good	21	138	Philip Hobbs	Richard Johnson
2010	Cue Card	4	40/1	8L	3.48.70	Good	1	138	Colin Tizzard	Joe Tizzard	View

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