Marsh Novices' Chase: The key race trials

How to find the key race trials? The qualifying trials below have come from extensive research looking at ten years of previous Cheltenham Festival winners and their previous/prep runs before the Cheltenham Festival. The previous runs prior to the Cheltenham Festival are then cross referenced with each individual winner to determine the most commonly used prep races between the winners (the placed horses have also come under scrutiny).These are the types of races that usually attract a high calibre of horse at that particular time in the season and, in many cases, can point the way to horses running well at the Cheltenham festival.

With each of the two trials it’s important to keep a small race analysis to ensure that the bare form and the result of the race can be relied upon when looking back for Cheltenham Festival research and study purposes.

Ireland has had a stronghold in this race in recent years with the British horses failing to come up trumps; winning just two of the past ten renewals of the race. A relatively new race to the calendar means that it’s difficult to find any solid Irish trials for the race run at an intermediate trip, with the lure of more lucrative prizes for a small step up in trip down the line.

Which Races?

•    Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase at Punchestown
•    Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase Sandown

Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase

Battleoverdoyen remains unbeaten over fences as he puts in a a brave performance to land the Liam & Valerie Brennan Memorial Florida Pearl Novice Chase pic.twitter.com/wNOTzZMnJv

— Punchestown (@punchestownrace) November 17, 2019

Analysis: 

The race was somewhat scuppered by the low sun resulting in the removal of fences 5, 6 and 7. Battleoverdoyen continued his winning ways by getting on top of his rivals late on in the contest, running out a winner by a hard fought 5l. 

The Gigginstown runner was pushed along to close in on the leader and eventual runner-up Any Second Now on the turn into the home straight. The pair duelled between the final two flights after both putting in a faultless round of jumping over the 2m6f trip. It was a very workman like performance with his jockey Davy Russell in an all out drive to keep his mount up to his work at the finish. Any Second Now kept on well without threatening the winner inside the final furlong to finish second. There was some promise from the third placed horse Ex Patriot, who ran a nice enough race.

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham glory?

Battleoverdoyen earned varied quotes for the Marsh Novices’ Chase with some firms going as big as 20/1. This is likely to be down to the fact this performance confirmed that he was ready for a step up to 3m, meaning the RSA would be his likely future target. He is now a best price of 40/1, the seven-year-old looks a doubt to make the Festival.

The form of this race needs to be taken with a pinch of salt though. The runner-up, Any Second Now, has achieved his official rating of 150 over fences with a single victory which came at the Cheltenham Festival in handicap company off a mark of 143, in the Kim Muir over 3m2f. Prior to that run, the horse had failed to win any race other than the first two starts of his career. The eye catching third, Ex Patriot, was trying this trip for the first time over fences, with his only win in the past three years coming on good ground. It’s unlikely that we have seen this year's The Marsh Novices’ Chase winner in the field.

Recent Winners: 

Historically, The Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase race acts as an intermediate race for trainers who are undecided on which route their respective horses are likely to take at the Cheltenham Festival. It’s a race that has failed to produce any dual winners but in recent times it has produced horses that have placed at the Cheltenham Festival. In relation to The Marsh Novices’ Chase, in 2017 Shattered Love was beaten here by Jury Duty but was able to put the result right at Cheltenham in March running out a ready winner of the race. Disko was beaten in this race in 2016 and was heavily fancied for the then JLT Novices' Chase but could only manage third.

This is a noteworthy race and a good indication of where horses are likely to run at the Cheltenham Festival, with many opting to drop back or step up in trip.

Winners Produced: 1

Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase 

Itchy Feet takes the Betway Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at @Sandownpark!

Watch live NOW
@ITV4
https://t.co/m1EvprYdwI pic.twitter.com/S8S1YB1zqX

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) February 1, 2020

Analysis: 

Late money came for Itchy Feet (7/1) and he ran out a ready winner of this Grade 1 contest over a solid yardstick in Midnight Shadow with 20l back to the rest.

Held up off the strong gallop as the pair took each other on for the lead, patient tactics played a winning hand in this contest. Olly Murphy’s Itchy Feet made plenty of ground losing errors at his fences over the 2m4f trip and still was able to come out on top of his rivals who set a fair form standard. His mistakes down the back straight at the railway fences cost him in excess of 3l but he ran out a comfortable winner by 3 ½ lengths on just his second chase start.

While it is clear that Itchy Feet was value for more than the winning margin suggests plenty of his rivals underperformed on this occasion including the market leader Laurina, who finished pulled up. Good Boy Bobby (5th) jumped markedly left throughout the contest and is likely better over 2m rather than 2m4f. Grand Sancy (4th) has shown his best form on a sounder surface. However, those rivals did finish 18l behind the front two which shows the impressive nature of the victory from Itchy Feet. 

How does the winner rate for Cheltenham Glory? 

It was difficult not to be impressed by Itchy Feet who finished third in last season’s Supreme Novices' Hurdle and bookmakers quite rightly cut his odds in half on the back of this performance for the Marsh Novices’ Chase. He is now a best price of 5/1. 

His powerful engine will be an asset at Cheltenham and providing he can brush up his sloppy jumping (only second start) he rates a big player in the Marsh Chase.

Recent winners: 

This race has produced plenty of horses that went on to be competitive in the Marsh Chase (JLT) in the past ten years.

The 2019 first and second, Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation filled the same spots at the Cheltenham Festival.

2018, 2017, 2016 winners of the race all filled the runner-up spots at the Cheltenham Festival while 2012 winner For Non Stop finished third. 

Changing Times finished a well beaten fourth behind Captain Conan in 2013 but landed connections place money in the JLT at the Cheltenham Festival.

Winners Produced:  1 
Placed Horses Produced: 7 

Who to take from the trials?

Itchy Feet is undoubtedly the one to take out of both trial races and he rates solid each-way material at the Cheltenham Festival. His course form significantly boosts his chances of landing the Marsh Novices’ Chase too. Unexposed after just the two chase starts there is plenty to work on before the big day but he rates an exciting prospect and one that will come into the race unbeaten over fences. Live player!

Get more insight and previews for the Festival on our Cheltenham tips page.