Daryl Carter has all the key stats and trends for the Marsh Novives' Chase.
Formally known as the JLT Novices’ Chase, the newly named Marsh Novices’ Chase takes place on day three of the Cheltenham Festival and is run over the intermediate distance of 2m4f. The race is run on the new course at Cheltenham, and is relatively new to the programme. It made its first appearance at the Festival in 2011 before receiving Grade 1 status in 2014.
Willie Mullins, who is a regular feature in these stats and trends articles, recorded three back-to-back successes in this race in years 2015, 2016 and 2017. He is the leading trainer in the race with a total of four victories in the last ten years.
The 2019 race was won by the Phillip Hobbs trained Defi Du Seuil, who showed a smart turn of foot to hold off rival Lostintranslation.
Defi Du Seuil makes no mistake to win the JLT Novices’ Chase at @CheltenhamRaces
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 14, 2019
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Past Winners:
|
YEAR |
WINNER |
AGE |
WGT |
SP |
TRAINER |
JOCKEY |
RPR |
|
2019 |
Defi Du Seuil |
6 |
11-4 |
3/1F |
Philip Hobbs |
Barry Geraghty |
164 |
|
2018 |
Shattered Love |
7 |
10-11 |
4/1 |
Gordon Elliott |
Jack Kennedy |
159 |
|
2017 |
Yorkhill |
7 |
11-4 |
6/4F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
166 |
|
2016 |
Black Hercules |
7 |
11-4 |
4/1C |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
164 |
|
2015 |
Vautour |
6 |
11-4 |
6/4F |
W P Mullins |
R Walsh |
175 |
|
2014 |
Taquin Du Seuil |
7 |
11-4 |
7/1 |
Jonjo O'Neill |
A P McCoy |
164 |
|
2013 |
Benefficient |
7 |
11-4 |
20/1 |
A J Martin |
B J Cooper |
158 |
|
2012 |
Sir Des Champs |
6 |
11-4 |
3/1 |
W P Mullins |
Davy Russell |
168 |
|
2011 |
Noble Prince |
7 |
11-4 |
4/1 |
Paul Nolan |
A P McCoy |
164 |
At a glance - 10 (9) year trends
Age Counts:
6yo’s and 7yo’s dominate the winners table above and while the race has only been run for the past nine years, 7yos have come out with a clear victory 6-3.
Price matters:
4/9 favourites have won, including one co-favourite and 3 of the 4 have been trained by Willie Mullins. The average SP of the winners is 8/1.
Britain or Ireland?
Back the Irish. Ireland takes high rank in this race coming out on top 8-1.
Recent run:
Horses have run over a variety of trips between 2m-3m prior to this contest but the average trip of the winner last time out was 2m4f.
Official Rating:
The average official rating of previous winners is 149 with the official rating at a max of 155 (Yorkhill 2017) and a minimum of 144 (Shattered Love). Vautour, who won in 2014, is one of only three 6yo’s to win the race and was rated as high as 154.
A winner last time out:
7/9 winners had won last time out and you would need to go back to 2016 to find the last horse beaten before going to post in this race. Black Hercules fell when travelling strongly in his prior engagement and Nobel Prince is the only other runner to be beaten before this race, in the first running of the JLT in 2011.
Course form:
Must have run at the track! All nine winners of this race had previous course form and 4/9 had winning course form.
In-depth stat analysis (in partnership with Dave Young)
Below I have highlighted a range of stat figures based on the past 10 winners of the race.Some hold serious in-depth information. The below table highlights the average, maximum and minimum on a range of subjects including age, starting price, trip last time out, official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, top speed figures and trip (distance run prior). Course form has been added along with recent runs of the past 10 winners.
|
Top Age |
7yo (6) |
|
Top Jockey |
Ruby Walsh (3) |
|
Top Trainer |
Willie Mullins (4) |
|
Course Raced at LTO |
Leopardstown (6) |
|
|
|
|
Average Age |
6.7 |
|
Max Age |
7 |
|
Min Age |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Average SP |
7 |
|
Max SP |
21 |
|
Min SP |
2.5 |
|
|
|
|
Average Trip LTO (f) |
20.1 |
|
Max Trip LTO (f) |
24 |
|
Min Trip LTO (f) |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Average OR |
149.3 |
|
Max OR |
155 |
|
Min OR |
144 |
|
|
|
|
Average RPR |
155.3 |
|
Max RPR |
163 |
|
Min RPR |
151 |
|
|
|
|
Average TS |
111.9 |
|
Max TS |
144 |
|
Min TS |
75 |
|
|
|
|
Average Max Trip (f) |
17.06 |
|
Max Max Trip (f) |
20 |
|
Min Max Trip (f) |
15.5 |
|
|
|
|
Average Min Trip (f) |
21.06 |
|
Max Min Trip (f) |
24 |
|
Min Min Trip (f) |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run at Course |
9/9 |
|
Had Won at Course |
4/9 |
|
Had Won LTO |
7/9 |
|
Unbeaten at Course |
3/9 |
|
Unbeaten that Season |
2/9 |
|
Won More Than Once That Season |
8/9 |
|
|
|
|
Had Run in Last 3 Weeks |
0/9 |
|
Had Run in Last 4 Weeks |
0/9 |
|
Had Run in Last 5 Weeks |
1/9 |
|
Had Run in Last 6 Weeks |
2/9 |
|
Had Run in Last 7 Weeks |
4/9 |
|
Had Run in Last 8 Weeks |
8/9 |
What to look for
• A 7yo
• SP odds of 8/1 or below
• An official rating of 149+
• Has course experience
• Has won last time out
• Has won more than once that season
• Has run in the last 8 weeks but not in the last 7
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