15:05 Thursday - Cheltenham

Focus on the Favourite

Paisley Park (2/1)

Although he was beaten at odds-on in last year’s race, Paisley Park has been established as the top staying hurdler for the last three seasons and when he won this race two years ago he capped an unbeaten campaign which had begun in handicaps. His trademark strong finish up the Cheltenham hill on that occasion was in marked contrast to his finishing effort when only seventh to Lisnagar Oscar in last year’s race but a valid excuse came to light when it was found that he had suffered an irregular heartbeat. But no long-term harm was done as Paisley Park has looked his old self in both races this season and stripped fitter than on his reappearance at Newbury when winning the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in dramatic fashion, coming from what looked an impossible position to catch Thyme Hill in the shadow of the post and win by a neck. The absence of Thyme Hill through a late setback improves Paisley Park’s chances of regaining his Stayers’ Hurdle crown.

An outsider to consider

Lisnagar Oscar (11/1)

After finishing only third behind Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle, Lisnagar Oscar was sent off at 50/1 for last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle but turned the tables on the odds-on favourite with a career-best effort. That came a year after Lisnagar Oscar had been much more strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival in which he finished fifth. Lisnagar Oscar was a long way behind Paisley Park again in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November won by Thyme Hill, but his latest start after a three-month absence was much more encouraging. Having had a breathing operation in the meantime, Lisnagar Oscar returned to something like his Stayers’ Hurdle form in finishing three quarters of a length second to Third Wind in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, sticking to his task well having been up with the pace throughout. That was a good effort trying to concede weight to the progressive winner, and while this looks a stronger renewal than last year, Lisnagar Oscar is entitled to a lot more respect than he was given 12 months ago.

A Stat to note

Two horses this century have won the Stayers’ Hurdle after beginning the season over fences

The first of those was Big Buck’s who unseated at the last in the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup but didn’t look back when switched to hurdles, winning his next 18 starts which included a record four editions of the Stayers’ Hurdle. Lisnagar Oscar has a less exalted record, as his odds of 50/1 when successful in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle would indicate, but he too made a successful switch from the larger obstacles after he had been placed in both his starts over fences at the start of his campaign. Lisnagar Oscar is just one of several runners in this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle to have been tried over fences. Two of them, If The Cap Fits and Vinndication, return to hurdles for the first time this season, and the latter is an interesting runner having won all three of his races over the smaller obstacles when a smart novice in 2017/18. A high-class chaser but inclined to make errors over fences, he was a good second in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on his reappearance before falling in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury on his latest outing.

The Verdict

Paisley Park has looked as good as ever this term, doing well to get up close home to land the Long Walk at Ascot on his latest outing, so he's an obvious choice to regain his crown after having excuses for his surprise defeat last year. Sire du Berlais tends to save his best for the Festival, having won the Pertemps Final on this card for the last two years, so a bold showing is expected from him, while 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar shouldn't be ruled out having run well on his first start after a breathing operation last time.

Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings:

  • 171   Paisley Park
  • 166   Sire du Berlais
  • 165+ The Storyteller
  • 165    Lisnagar Oscar
  • 164+  Vinndication
  • 163    Flooring Porter