Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips

The 2021 Cheltenham Festival is nearly upon us, a Cheltenham Festival of the like that we have have never witnessed before and will hopefully never witness again. However, it makes much more sense to focus on the scintillating action that will take place on the racetrack than lament the deafening silence of the traditionally jam-packed grandstands, and why not start by taking a look at the blue riband contest itself - the Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup.

All too often these championship races look like stellar renewals in the autumn before contenders fall away over the course of the winter. However, this race has arguably gained further dimensions given the emergence of A Plus Tard at Christmas and the reappearance of Champ last weekend, both of whom possess the ability to make their presence felt next month.

The hat-trick seeking Al Boum Photo is the most logical place to start, and it's very much a case of 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' when it's comes to his Gold Cup preparation.

Willie Mullins' star chaser almost certainly doesn't receive the credit that he deserves as a dual Gold Cup winner, which is almost undoubtedly a result of how lightly he is campaigned. However, it took the Irish Champion trainer a long time to win Cheltenham's most prestigious prize, and there is no logic whatsoever in tweaking a successful formula to merely attract a larger following.

Al Boum Photo kick-started the new year with a victory at his beloved Tramore and will arrive at Prestbury Park fresh and well once again. His first success was achieved in a truly run race, and he overcame a distinct lack of pace when triumphing 12 months. Therefore he is tactically versatile and, unlike many Gold Cup winners, has very few miles on the clock, which means plenty when competing at this level over fences.

If being named in honour of 20 time champion jockey AP McCoy wasn't enough, Champ further enhanced his already lofty reputation when flying home from a seemingly impossible position in last year's Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, and he made what I considered to be a hugely encouraging belated seasonal reappearance in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Sunday.

I will happily admit that I was far convinced by Champ last season and I'm not sure he would have been successful at Cheltenham had Minella Indo jumped the final fence with any degree of fluency. However, I thought that he jumped better than ever on Sunday - barring one mistake at the last - and it certainly confirmed both his well-being and his form.

I'm fairly confident in saying that no horse has ever undergone a Cheltenham Gold Cup preparation consisting of a 3 mile simulated race and a spin over 2 miles at Newbury. However, after getting over the initial surprise of seeing Champ entered over the minimum trip, I can definitely see the logic given that Cheltenham is just around the corner and the recovery time for a two mile race compared to a three mile race is significant at this level.

That said, it does raise slight concerns over whether Champ will be able settle sufficiently in the early stages of next month's Gold Cup given that he was allowed to bowl along from the outset at Newbury.

It is, of course, worth remembering that the presence of Native River, Frodon and Minella Indo virtually guarantees a strong gallop from flag-fall and that will undoubtedly aid Nico De Boinville in his quest to bottle Champ's enthusiasm. If he is indeed successful in doing so, Champ could easily prove a force to be reckoned with if still in contention when turning for home.

It goes without saying that Champ will need to get that far without making many, if any, mistakes and he will certainly have to jump as well as he didn't at Newbury in order to stay in contention. It is perhaps worth noting that connections have left him in the Stayers Hurdle all season long, which perhaps provides an insight into how confident they are about his fencing.

The hugely progressive Royal Pagaille is not yet a certain runner but would undoubtedly bring an aura of intrigue should he be given the green light. The Rich Ricci owned seven-year-old is 3-3 this season and turned what is traditionally a very competitive Haydock Grade 2 handicap into a procession when last sighted January.

The scopey son of Blue Bresil is a novice in name only, as he's actually been jumping fences since March 2018 and already has 11 starts to his name. Therefore he possesses sufficient experience to contest a race of this nature and his rating of 166 puts him firmly in the mix. 

The presence of Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase could easily push Royale Pagaille this way, and this is undoubtedly a race that Rich Ricci, whom has already won multiple Grade 1's at the Festival, would dearly love to win.

Sometimes it pays to take a chance when you have a horse whom is clearly at the peak of their powers, as Coneygree's Gold Cup success in 2015 clearly demonstrates. At the moment I would suggest that Royale Pagaille is likely to be given that opportunity, and he could easily run well if the ground isn't too quick and his low-slung way of jumping doesn't hinder him.

Santini ran a mighty race to place second last year given that he would arguably have been the worst effected by the obvious lack of pace early doors.

The presence of genuine front-runners this year will undoubtedly be in his favour. However, it is impossible to ignore that fact that he has been disappointing on each of his three visits to the racecourse this season and he is far from the easiest of rides, therefore Aidan Coleman, whom rode him for the first time in the rescheduled Cotswolds Chase, will have his work cut out at Cheltenham.

That said, Nicky Henderson's stout staying nine-year-old has placed second at the last two Festival's and will undoubtedly be coming home well when many are flagging up the gruelling Cheltenham hill. Therefore it would be far from a surprise were he to run into a place. 

You won't find many bigger Native River fans than myself and it was fantastic to see the 2018 Gold Cup hero roll back the years in the aforementioned Cotswolds Chase at Sandown earlier this month. However, his victory in this race was achieved on hock deep ground which placed an increased emphasis on stamina, and the current whether forecast has a distinct lack of rain, which would undoubtedly favour those with more gears and leave the likes of Native River vulnerable.

 

His age and battle scars are also likely to count against him and there are still question marks surrounding the form of Colin Tizzard's string. While you have to go back to Native River's crowing success in 2018 to find the yards last winner at the Festival, which is also fairly damning.

Without wanting to sound disrespectful to such a fantastic horse, Native River's participation will most likely provide a pace angle rather than a genuine contender. However, he could conceivably hit the frame if a deluge of rain were to suddenly materialise. 

King George VI Chase hero Frodon is arguably seen to best effect at Prestbury Park and is certainly more than worthy of his place in this field. However, the 2019 Ryanair Chase winner was allowed to dictate matters at Kempton and his trusty partner Bryony Frost was able to slow the race down and indeed re-inject the pace as and when she liked - something that will not be possible next month.

Clearly Paul Nicholls' nine-year-old stays three miles, however, his best form is arguably over intermediate trips and three-miles-and-two-furlongs at Gold Cup pace will certainly take plenty of getting - especially with a horse like Native River injecting pace from flag-fall. Therefore, as admirable as he clearly is, I couldn't have him on my mind next month.

Minella Indo was a single figure price for this contest prior to falling in the Savills Chase at Christmas and failing to justify favouritism in the Irish Gold Cup earlier this month, and although that can hardly be considered an ideal preparation, he is a horse whom appears to spark at Cheltenham and he may find further improvement over this stamina-sapping trip. 

Henry De Bromhead's talented eight-year-old caused a 50/1 surprise in the 2019 Albert Bartlett and almost doubled his tally of Cheltenham Festival victories in last year's Brown Advisory Novice Chase, when falling victim to the late rattle of the aforementioned Champ.

Minella Indo perhaps paid the price of taking on Allaho a long way from home on that occasion, and he may still have triumphed had he got a flyer at the last. A combination of those factors is almost certainly to blame, however, it is also worth noting that he did pick-up again when Champ came surging past up the hill, suggesting that he was idling in the closing stages and was clearly no spent force.

The Beat Hollow gelding won his first two starts this season, defeating last season's impressive Kim Muir Challenge Cup hero Milan Native, whom received 5lbs and a 25 lengths beating at Wexford in October, before cruising to a Grade 2 victory at Navan in November. Those victories were sufficiently impressive to see him sent off favourite for his two subsequent Grade 1 assignments at Leopardstown, therefore I would argue that it's far too soon to write him off and indeed he could represent good each-way value at 16/1.

Minella Indo is returning to a track that he likes, and indeed plays to his strengths, and he may well have finished much closer at the Dublin Racing Festival had he not made a momentum checking error at the penultimate obstacle. Henry De Bromhead has already suggested that more forceful tactics may be deployed in the Cotswolds, and I would suggest that those whom pass him will know that they've had a race.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Prediction 

By this stage you may have noticed that I have neglected to mention A PLUS TARD in any great deatail in spite of tackling the numerous contenders in market order, and that's because I consider last year's Ryanair Chase third to be the most likely winner next month following his impressive success in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December.

Indeed, it would be hard not to be impressed by how well A Plus Tard stayed-on to chin Kemboy and Melon in the shadows of the post at Christmas, and that form was franked when Kemboy landed the Irish Gold Cup earlier this month. Obviously Melon didn't run as well on that occasion, however, I would put that down to the change of tactics, as the four-time Festival runner-up is a much better horse when allowed to stride on and attack his fences.

I was particularly impressed by hard the Cheveley Park stud owned seven-year-old hit the line, giving the impression that another 2 furlongs would be right up his street, which is very impressive when you consider that he had the gears to defeat red-hot Champion Chase favourite Chacun Pour Soi - who was admittedly in need of the run - over two-miles-and-one-furlong at the corresponding meeting in 2019. And let's not forget that he also ran out a 16 lengths winner of the now defunct Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase (2m4f) in 2019, demonstrating his class and ability from 2m to 3m.

Indeed, Henry De Bromhead's charge has plenty in common with 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Sizing John, who was also accomplished over shorter trips before gaining his crowing glory over three-miles-and-two-furlongs in the Cotswolds. Like Sizing John, A Plus Tard has solid form at Cheltenham and is completely unexposed over staying trips, and he too could prove to be the new kid on the block in the staying division next month.

Like Al Boum Photo, A Plus Tard has been given plenty of time to recover from his exertions at Christmas and will arrive at Prestbury Park a fresh horse, which can only be positive. While his current rating is superior to many Gold Cup winners prior to landing Cheltenham's prestigious main event.

Obviously he's been found in the market and is currently a top price of 13/2. However, I would suggest that that remains fair value as I can see him being sent-off a much shorter price on the day, especially if the forecast good weather materialises.

Rachael Blackmore certainly has a big decision to make given that she has ridden both Minella Indo and A Plus Tard to land Cheltenham Festival races previously. However, Darragh O'Keeffe did the steering on the latter at Christmas and would certainly be no back number should Rachael stay loyal to the former. That said, it would clearly be a ringing endorsement should the three-time Cheltenham Festival winning jockey jump ship to ride the french-bred.

A Plus Tard - 2pts @ 6/1