We check on the five biggest races this weekend for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
The National Hunt season is back in full swing with meetings at Ascot, Haydock, and Punchestown this weekend that will surely have a big impact on the Cheltenham Festival ante-post markets.
Ballyburn makes his Chase debut on Saturday, State Man and Lossiemouth go head-to-head in a potential Champion Hurdle preview, while Grey Dawning looks to claim one of the weekend’s grandest prizes in the Betfair Chase.
In this article, we pick out five of the biggest races this weekend and how some out the potential outcomes could impact the Cheltenham Festival markets.
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Saturday 12:30 Punchestown: Ballyburn 1/7 on Chase Debut
In the third race at Punchestown, Ballyburn will look to put fellow chasers on notice as he makes his debut over fences in the 2m2f Beginners’ Chase.
Winning four out of five over hurdles last season, including the Gallaghers’ Novices Hurdle and Irish Champion Novices’ Hurdle, Willie Mullins will be hoping to translate this form to this discipline.
Ballyburn should open odds-on favourite for this race, but it will be the quality of the performance that will be one to watch rather than the finishing position. He is currently priced up as the 5/2 favourite to win the Arkle in March.
A strong performance here could see that price clipped into 2/1 and below. On the contrary, struggling over fences may lead to Mullins looking at sending him back over hurdles. The six-year-old is currently a best price of 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 16/1 for the Stayers’.
Saturday 14:10 Punchestown: State Man & Lossiemouth in the Morgiana
Stablemates State Man and Lossiemouth head the betting in the feature race at Punchestown on Saturday in a showdown that will certainly have implications on the Champion Hurdle market.
Despite being favoured over State Man in the ante-post betting, Lossiemouth is a 5/2 second favourite to win Saturday’s race, with bookmakers currently projecting Lossiemouth to come on strong through this season.
Another intriguing angle is Paul Townend choosing to ride State Man over Lossiemouth this weekend, hinting that the former is ahead in quality as it stands (further implied by being the 4/5 favourite on Saturday).
Brighterdaysahead is another horse to watch here. Currently the 5/2 favourite for the Mares’ Hurdle in March, getting the win here over to hurdling rivals would surely see her current price of 16/1 smashed in for the Champion Hurdle.
The five-year-old already has a graded victory to her name in the Grade 3 Bottlegreen Hurdle at Down Royal earlier this month.
Saturday 14:45 Ascot: Golden Ace 2/1 for the Feature
Last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner, Golden Ace, looks to extend her winning streak to five in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle on Saturday. The 9/4 favourite for the race has picked up 31% of the ante-post bets for the renewal but will have to beat the 2023 winner of this race Blueking d’Oroux (11/4).
Golden Ace is currently priced at around 8/1 generally for the Mares’ Hurdle in March, but will need to match/better Brighterdaysahead’s performance, who, as previously mentioned, is the 5/2 favourite in the ante-post market. Saturday could turn out to be a pivotal day in the ante-post betting for Mares’ Hurdle ante-post punters.
Saturday 15:05 Haydock Grey Dawning Looks to Prove Gold Cup Credentials
The Skeltons have made it clear that they hope Grey Dawning will turn out to be their Gold Cup horse this season, and the Betfair Chase will be the first test for the seven-year-old this season.
Currently priced up as a 9/4 favourite, Grey Dawning was a 9½l winner at his last appearance at Haydock over 2m 5f (2023 Graduation Chase). However, this Saturday’s race pits him up against proven peers over 3m and beyond.
Royale Pagaille won this race in 2023, Ahoy Senor a 1/2l second to Gerri Colombe in the 2023 Aintree Bowl, Hewick is a King George Chase winner, alongside others proven at this distance. If he can put in a strong showing here, the current price of 16/1 for the Gold Cup could move into single figure odds.
Sunday 14:25 Punchestown: Top 3 Gold Cup Horses Battle It Out
The top three in the betting for the Gold Cup in March will battle it out on Sunday at Punchestown to claim the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase. Fact To File is currently the slight betting favourite at 2/1, leading Fastorslow 5/2 and Galopin Des Champs 4/1.
50% of ante-post bets have backed the favourite to win here, with 29% on Fastorslow and 8% on Galopin Des Champs.
However, the Gold Cup ante-post market currently presents a different story, with GDC the 7/2 favourite, followed by Fact To File 4/1 and Fastorslow 9/1.
Hence, even if GDC does not win this weekend, he may still be the favourite for the Gold Cup come 4pm Sunday. Nonetheless, a poor performance from any of these three here and we will surely see a sea of red on their Gold Cup price.
