Don't be scared of backing bigger-priced runners in the County Hurdle – 15 of the last 19 winners came at double figure odds.
County Hurdle
The County Hurdle is an extremely competitive handicap hurdle race, which is run on the fourth and final day of the Cheltenham Festival at 14.00.
The race itself has seen some almighty gambles landed and tends to be won by either the best handicapped or classiest horse in the race. Absurde proved to be ahead of his mark when scoring under Paul Townend for Willie Mullins 12 months ago.
County Hurdle Winners & Trends
- Age - Nine of the last 12 winners were aged between five and eight. Five-year-old’s have the best recent record with 12 winners in the last 27 renewals.
- Rating - 11 of the last 12 winners were rated between 134 and 141.
- Weight - Nine of the 10 winners carried 11-4 or less (Arctic Fire defied 11-12 in 2017).
- Lack of Festival and course form no concern - 16 of the last 24 winners were having their first start at the Cheltenham Festival, while 22 of the last 24 winners had never previously raced at Cheltenham.
- Irish dominance - 12 of the last 18 runnings were won by an Irish raider.
- Don't be scared of the bigger-priced runners - 15 of the last 19 winners returned double-figure odds.
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County Hurdle Key Runners & Contenders
The market is headed by McLaurey, who has won his last two starts in good style and beat a useful field in a Listed race on handicap debut last time out. That form has substance given the runner-up mixed it with the best juveniles at the highest level last season. He is highly likely to be very well handicapped for this contest, so he’s a must for anybody’s shortlist.
There are plenty of dangers, though, with last year’s winner Absurde set to potentially defend his crown. He’s not been seen in this sphere since but he ran a huge race to finish fifth in the Melbourne Cup last time out and despite being higher in the handicap than last year, he must be respected.
Another runner who is proving popular is Lark In The Mornin. He caught the eye in a big handicap over the Christmas period at Leopardstown and has been saved for this race since. Last season’s Boodles winner could go well, as could Dan Skelton’s Valgrand. That being said, he’s been below his best in two subsequent starts so he would need to rediscover his Grade 2 win here at the October meeting to get involved.
County Hurdle Trainers & Jockeys to Watch
Anything trained by a Mullins is worth noting, given nine of the past 18 winners were trained by a member of the Mullins family (Willie x7, Thomas x1 and Tony x1). Look out for Willie Mullins and Emmet Mullins in this year’s race as they have entries!
Dan Skelton is another trainer to note having taken four of the last nine renewals (Superb Story 2016), Mohaayed (2018), Ch’tibello (2019) and Faivoir 2023). Look out for his runners!
Paul Townend is the most successful jockey in the past 20 renewals, winning it four times (Wicklow Brave 2015), Arctic Fire 2017), State Man 2022) and Absurde (2024).
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County Hurdle Race Prediction
1. McLaurey
2. Hansard
3. Karniquet
County Hurdle Betting Tips
The JP McManus-owned MCLAUREY (best price 8/1) should have a good chance in this race. I loved the way he moved into contention in a deep race on his handicap debut at Leopardstown before putting matters to bed impressively under Mark Walsh. That looks a strong piece of form as the runner-up, Storm Heart, ran well in three Grade 1s last season. With plenty more to come from Emmet Mullins’ charge, he can go close.
At huge odds, I can see HANSARD (best price 20/1) running a big race. He travelled noticeably well in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out and wasn’t beaten far into third considering the race wasn’t run to suit. This bigger field will suit him better and he has plenty of smart form in the book, so he’s an outsider to note. I think he has the class to at least make the frame.
Willie Mullins’ Karniquet has been highly tried for his stable and finished second to an above-average stablemate last time out, so it will be interesting to see if he lines up in this event.
