Grand National Saturday ITV Tips & Preview

Nicky Henderson has carried all before him this week and he will have more than one eye on capturing this event too with On The Blind Side. He is a tough horse to dislike given his profile, course form and likeable attitude but the market has found his chance so he is reluctantly passed over for two Supreme Novices’ Hurdle refugees in WESTERN RYDER (Best price 8-1) and LOSTINTRANSLATION (Best price 16-1). Both selections were in the process of running fine races at the Festival until they were caught in the backwash of Summerville Boy’s error at the second last hurdle. While the instigator proceeded to recover handsomely, the incident put paid to the chances of the duo but they still both emerged with credit given they ideally require a little further than two miles these days. Western Ryder’s connections landed the bumper on day two to increase confidence in his chance and he was noted rattling up the hill so the step up in trip should be perfect. Lostintranslation is another to consider at a big price as he looked a potential star at Newbury before Christmas. Events haven’t gone his way since, but he too should improve for a stiffer test of stamina today.

On the face of it, Petite Mouchoir will be tough to beat in this Grade 1 prize and probably with good reason given he finished an honourable 15 lengths behind Footpad in the Arkle Chase despite going hammer and tongs for the first mile of the race with San Calvados. The only issue I have with the flamboyant grey is his propensity to become a little worked up at the start before races these days and the walk under the tunnel at Aintree towards the track and into a cauldron of noise and 70,000 enthusiastic racegoers may not assist Davy Russell in this regard either. In the circumstances, he may not be one to smash into a short price and, as Dan Skelton always has a plan for his horses, SHANTOU ROCK (Best price 8/1) could be the horse to pull off a mini surprise. A two-length defeat at the hands of Sceaux Royal (fancied for the Arkle before a late injury) at Doncaster reads pretty well and the selection has also tried to mix it with the classy Cyrname this term. Shantou Rock has jumped boldly and proficiently to date over fences, while a flat track suits him well.

This appears an extremely tricky handicap to solve – even in comparison with the National – and preference for course winner ON TOUR (Best price 14-1) can only be marginal. The selection has a good record fresh as form figures of 2121 following an absence of more than 77 days indicates and his first time out victory at today’s track back in November suggested he may just be the type of horse for a race of this nature. Admittedly, he is yet to prove his stamina at three miles, but he was powering clear of Master Dee at the line on his comeback and that form has been handsomely enhanced since.

BELLS OF AILSWORTH (Best price 12-1) is the other contender which catches my eye. He hails from a yard that enjoy a good record at this meeting and his performance behind Regal Flow at Taunton took on greater magnitude when his conqueror ran away with the Midlands National five days later. It is a big day for the Vaughan camp and conditions could be to the liking of their representative here.

Many onlookers felt rider Joe Colliver didn’t utilise the seemingly bottomless stamina reserves of SAM SPINNER (Best price 6-4) in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and it will be fascinating to see if connections revert to an all-out assault from the front today. Although Sam Spinner made the running last month, the fact there were a host of his rivals queuing up behind him at the second last, suggested the pace of the race wasn’t strong enough and a modest gallop allowed the speed horses, Penhill and Supasundae, to fight out the finish. In the circumstances, Sam Spinner wasn’t disgraced as he finished just six lengths behind the winner and the return to a flat track on soft ground should suit a horse who bolted up at Haydock under similar conditions prior to slamming Thursday’s winner L’Ami Serge at Ascot.

ANIBALE FLY (Best price 12-1) must surely be towards the top of any shortlist for this great race given his outstanding performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a run which was enhanced still further by Might Bite’s success on day one.

If the handicapper could frame the weights for today’s race since Cheltenham he would hand Anibale Fly a further 9lb such was the measure of his improvement at Prestbury Park so there is a reason for backing him purely on a handicapping perspective alone.

Wily trainer Tony Martin may have endured a lean couple of seasons, but he is one of the best in the business at readying a handicapper for the big day and his eight-year-old has won all three of his starts when tackling fields of 21 or bigger so clearly doesn’t mind a crowd!

His ability to navigate traffic will be a huge plus this afternoon and his undoubted class should ensure the perceived welter-burden of 11st8lb isn’t a win-stopping factor.

While the rest of the country have spent a long winter getting soaked, Venetia Williams has endured a dry spell with the Herefordshire handler finding winners hard to come by.

All that has changed in the past fortnight however, with Williams despatching nine winners from her last 22 runners and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (Best price 40-1) could be the chief beneficiary of his stable’s welcome return to form.

The 11-year-old has long been earmarked for a race of this nature and has run a series of fine races in some of the premier staying chases in the calendar in a lengthy career, not least when conditions were too quick for him here 12 months ago.

In the circumstances, Houblon Des Obeaux produced a remarkable effort to finish where he did as he had 19 horses in front of him jumping the second last fence, yet rattled home to pass half of them.

The persistent rainfall in the north west will certainly have enhanced his chance and perhaps acted to the detriment of others and his form this season’s has been pretty reasonable considering his stable have found winners tough to come by.