We've examined the trends of recent Grand National winners to decipher which horse has the best chance in 2019
31 of the 47 finishers over the last three Grand Nationals were aged under ten, highlighting the changing nature of the race.
The last 46 winners had won over at least three miles.
18 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated their rider no more than twice.
Previous National Pedigree:
13 of the last 22 winners previously won or placed in a National of any description.
Cheltenham Festival Form:
Only two Cheltenham Festival winners since 1961 has gone on to win the Grand National in the same season.
Only three of the last 21 winners had won more than once earlier in the season.
The Grey Horse:
Only three grey horses have ever won the Grand National.
The Betting Market:
7 of the last 12 winners started at 25/1+
Owners and Trainers:
Trevor Hemmings has won three times since 2002 and J P McManus has owned a top-four finisher in 10 of the last 15 years.
Ruby Walsh is the most successful current jockey over the Grand National fences having won twice and placed four times. He’s also completed the National on 10 out of his 13 rides. Ruby Walsh is expected to ride Rathvinden
Several horses fit the bill for seven of the criteria mentioned above. However, just one fits for eight and this is ANIBALE FLY.
Finishing fourth in the race last year, the JP McManus-owned gelding is only let down by the fact that he is already 12/1 second favourite in the market and is not 25/1+, and this is the weakest of all criteria due to the fact only 7 of the last 12 winners were above the given threshold. The nine-year-old has all the ingredients to win the 2019 Aintree showpiece.