Steve Ryder's first betting selection for Day 2 at Aintree is an outsider in the opening Mildmay Novices' Chase.
13:45 Friday
There are four Grade 1 contests on the card for Day 2 of the Grand National Festival at Aintree, starting with the Mildmay Novices’ Chase.
Since the racing finished on Thursday, the most backed selection for Friday's card through oddschecker is Handstands (marginal favourite in the opener from Dancing City), who has taken more than 40% of the bets in the winner market vs Dancing City's 24%.
Later in the day we have the Top Novices’ Hurdle at 14:55, a small field for the Melling Chase (15:30) featuring Jonbon and an open looking Oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at 16:40.
What to Expect on Day 2 of the Aintree Festival
Jonbon is taking on just El Fabiolo, Matata and Protektorat in the Melling. Heart Wood was the biggest to defect, while there is no Arizona Cardinal (2nd fav and last year's winner) in the Topham.
The Melling Chase is always the highlight of the card in terms of quality but the Topham gives the public another chance of seeing runners over the Grand National fences over a shorter trip of 2m5f.
For the previous two years the gap between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree has been four weeks but we are back to only a three week gap this year which will make it more difficult for horses to run up to top form at both meetings. This could further enhance last year’s results where 13 of the 21 winners hadn’t run at the Cheltenham Festival.
Aintree Day 2 Racecard
- 1:45 Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase (3m1f)
- 2:20 William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)
- 2:55 Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
- 3:30 Grade 1 Melling Chase (2m4f)
- 4:05 Topham Handicap Chase (2m5f)
- 4:40 Grade 1 oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (3m)
- 5:15 Handicap Hurdle for Conditional/Amateur Jockeys (2m)
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Today’s Best Bets from Our Tipster
1:45 Aintree - The Changing Man 12/1 (0.5pt ew)
Connections of Handstands will be hoping that their decision to miss the Cheltenham Festival will give him the advantage over his opposition but I am willing to take a chance on the consistent THE CHANGING MAN (best priced at 12/1).
The experienced eight-year-old has had 11 starts over fences but has shown improved form this season with form figures of F22212. He won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot by 24 lengths before finishing 2nd in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 140.
Holywell won this race having won the Ultima in 2014 and Chianti Classico finished 4th in this contest having won the Ultima last season so it is a well-trodden path. Connections of The Changing Man have decided to run in this Grade 1 rather than the handicap chase on Saturday and hopefully that decision will be rewarded.
14:20 Friday
2:20 Aintree - Off The Jury 25/1 (0.5pt ew)
Both Kopeck De Mee and Be Aware look vulnerable at the top of the market and the one who I believe is overpriced is OFF THE JURY (best priced at 25/1).
The Alan King trained novice hurdler ran well to finish 2nd behind Mister Meggit on his hurdling debut over this course and distance on his hurdling debut before placing on his next two starts at Doncaster and Wincanton.
He bounced back from running out at Wetherby to finish 2nd in the EBF Final at Sandown last time off a mark of 126 and he should hold strong claims off only a 5lb higher mark.
The ‘David Maxwell factor’ is already taken into account in his price and I would be surprised if he isn’t involved in the finish with up to seven places available on the race.
Key Races to Watch on Day 2 at Aintree
The Melling Chase (3:30) is the highlight of the second day and it is a race that the likes of Moscow Flyer, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre have all won in the past.
Jonbon added his name to an illustrious roll of honour last year when he proved his stamina over this trip beating Conflated by 1 ¼ lengths. He bids to bounce back from a defeat at the Cheltenham Festival in a race where he faces only three rivals.
El Fabiolo disappointed last time at a lower level, Protektorat was beaten 20 lengths in the Ryanair Chase and Matata has slight question marks around this intermediate trip so it looks a good opportunity for Jonbon to retain his crown.
Key Aintree Stats & Trends for Day 2
Mildmay Novices’ Chase:
- The previous 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival
- 28 of the previous 34 winners had won over 2m7f+
- 22 of the previous 24 winners had run at least 4 times over fences
- 13 of the previous 15 winners were aged six or seven
- 11 of the previous 14 winners had already won a Grade 1 or 2 over fences
- Five of the previous 11 winners contested the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton
- Three of the previous seven winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
Top Novices’ Hurdle:
- 22 of the previous 25 winners were aged five or six
- 21 of the previous 27 winners were sent off shorter than 10/1
- 15 of the previous 25 winners ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time
- 11 of the previous 12 winners ran in bumpers
- Six of the previous 14 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
- Four of the previous five winners were trained in Ireland
Melling Chase:
- 25 of the previous 33 winners had won or placed at this festival previously
- 15 of the previous 18 winners had contested either the Champion Chase or Ryanair Chase
- 19 of the previous 24 winners returned at an SP of 5/1 or shorter
- 17 of the previous 18 winners were aged 7-9
- 14 of the previous 20 winners had won a Grade 1 that season
- 11 of the previous 26 winners were trained in Ireland
Topham Chase:
- 21 of the previous 23 winners ran during March
- 17 of the previous 23 winners carried 10-12 or less
- 17 of the previous 21 winners didn’t win last time out
- 12 of the previous 20 winners had run at this course previously
- Eight of the previous 11 winners were aged between 6-9
- Six of the previous seven winners wore a tongue-tie
- Two of the previous five winners were trained by Willie Mullins
Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:
- 20 of the previous 24 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
- 18 of the previous 19 were aged six or seven
- 14 of the previous 24 winners skipped the Cheltenham Festival
- Seven of the previous 18 winners had run in the Albert Bartlett
- Three of the previous 10 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
- Two of the previous four winners were trained by Lucinda Russell
What’s Coming Up on Day 3 at the Aintree Festival
One of the highlights of the third day of the Aintree Festival is the Liverpool Hurdle where Strong Leader bids to record back-to-back victories in the race, before the Grand National at 4pm. Intense Raffles, Iroko and Stumptown are the market leaders as we close in on the final set of runners.
