Steve Ryder thinks Charlie Appleby will be celebrating a first win in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.
1000 Guineas 2025
Godolphin's Desert Flower is expected to take on Lake Victoria - a three-time Group 1 winner for Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore - in Sunday's classic at Newmarket.
There are 17 runners still entered for the 1000 Guineas of which six are trained in Ireland. The unbeaten Desert Flower is currently a short-priced favourite to give trainer Charlie Appleby a first win in the race.
1000 Guineas Winners, Trends & Stats
Minding was the last winning favourite of this race in 2016 and since then only one winner has been below a starting price of 9/1. The biggest priced winner was Billesdon Brook in 2018 at 66/1 with last year’s winner Elmalka returning at 28/1.
- 17 of the previous 23 winners had won a group race prior to this race
- 16 of the previous 23 winners had won just two or three races in their career before
- 15 of the previous 23 winners had yet to win a race over a mile
- 13 of the previous 23 winners won their previous race
- 13 of the previous 23 winners had raced at Newmarket before
- 10 of the previous 23 winners had raced at Newmarket on their previous start
1000 Guineas Key Runners & Contenders
Desert Flower
Unbeaten in her four starts as a juvenile including three times at Newmarket (once on the Rowley Mile). She won the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster by 1½ lengths beating January before confirming that form in emphatic style beating the same rival by 5½ lengths over this course and distance in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at the end of the season. Connections were pleased with her racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting and she looks the one to beat.
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Lake Victoria
Unbeaten in her five starts last season including three Group 1 victories. She beat the reopposing Red Letter in a maiden at the Curragh before winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket over 7f on the July course.
She then showed her versatility winning three Group 1s over 7f, 6f and a mile including the Cheveley Park Stakes at this track in September. Coping with a rough trip early on in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, she stayed on strongly over a mile to win by 1½ lengths on her first attempt over this distance. Aidan O’Brien raised doubts about her participation in this race but she is respected if she is allowed to take her chance.
Red Letter
Was beaten only a head by Lake Victoria on her debut at the Curragh before winning in impressive style on her next start by 4¼ lengths. She was sent off only 7/2 for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on her next start where she didn’t get the smoothest of trips when 4th beaten 1½ lengths by Lake Victoria. All three of her races have come over 7f at the Curragh on good ground so she has a slight question mark about the track.
Bedtime Story
Was ante-post favourite for this race early on last season following her 9½ length success in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Beat stablemate Exactly in her next two starts before finishing last of 5 in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes behind Lake Victoria, Simmering, Exactly and Red Letter who could all reoppose in this race.
She was reported to be lame post-race but she was once again beaten in France on her next start when 5th beaten 4 ¼ lengths in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Faces question marks as a result.
Chantilly Lace
Justified favouritism in a heavy ground Salisbury novice race in October on her only start as a juvenile last season. She won comfortably by 1½ lengths that day from an 88 rated rival that day but the faster ground would be a question mark for this daughter of Lope De Vega.
Exactly
Consistent Aidan O’Brien filly who finished in the top 3 in all of the six group races she contested last season. Closely matched with stablemates Lake Victoria and Bedtime Story on those runs, she started off this season finishing 2nd in a Group 3 at Leopardstown when ridden by Ryan Moore for the first time.
Chantez
Finished 2nd by a head behind the more experienced Exactly on her debut before winning her next two starts. She won a maiden by three lengths before justifying favouritism in a listed race on her final start last season. Like her stablemate Red Letter, all three of her runs have been at Leopardstown over 7f on good ground so this track would be a question mark.
Duty First (needs to be supplemented)
Finished behind Desert Flower on their respective debuts at the Newmarket July course before getting off the mark at Ayr in a novice race in August. Placed in group races on her next two starts before putting in a huge career best when defying odds of 33/1 to win the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury on her reappearance. Her revised rating of 109 means she is entitled to take her chance in this race if connections wish to supplement her.
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1000 Guineas Trainers & Jockeys to Watch
Robert Robson is the leading trainer for this race according to the record books with nine victories between 1859 and 1883 but more recently it is a race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien who has won it seven times since 2005.
Ryan Moore rode four of those winners for Aidan O’Brien but most eyes will be on whether William Buick can achieve his first victory in this race aboard Desert Flower.
1000 Guineas Ground Conditions & Weather
The long-range forecast looks to be for hot, sunny weather in the lead up to the race so it is likely to be run on good/good to firm ground.
Desert Flower has won on ground ranging from good to soft to good to firm and similarly Lake Victoria has won on ground ranging from soft ground to firm (in America).
Of the main contenders at the top of the market, the one horse who would have question marks about the faster ground would be Chantilly Lace who won her only career start on heavy ground last season.
1000 Guineas Pace & Tactics
The 1000 Guineas has been won previously with a range of different tactics but Newmarket has recently been subject to a draw bias rather than a pace bias in recent meetings. The far side rail was the optimum place to race during the Craven meeting so it may be worth analysing the action from Friday and Saturday prior to trying to work out whether it will be beneficial to be drawn high or low in the race.
Betting Insights for the 1000 Guineas
Although favourites have a poor recent record in this race, with doubts surrounding the fitness of Lake Victoria at this time of the season, DESERT FLOWER (best priced at 6/5) does look a worthy market leader. The Godolphin filly won her first two starts at Newmarket on the July course before putting in an impressive performance to win the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance on her final start last season.
Charlie Appleby brought Desert Flower back to this course for a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting where she stretched clear of her stablemate appearing to once again relish coming out of the dip. It may not be easy viewing as she will once again be expected to hit a flat spot 3f out in this contest but it would surprise me if she wasn’t staying on strongest at the finish.
Desert Flower will no doubt have been trained with this race as her primary objective all season in order to provide Charlie Appleby and William Buick with a first victory in this race and I feel she will justify her short price.
