Jake Price recaps a pivotal week of Cheltenham Festival trials and shares fresh ante-post plays in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and Ryanair Chase.
With the frost hopefully very much behind us now, the season really feels to have got going again, and despite a few races and meetings needing to be rescheduled, we have still managed to garner plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues. This week, I will be reviewing some of the recent action with my Ante-Post hat on, as well as highlighting all of the significant recent news.
WEEK IN REVIEW
We start our review of the week at Naas on Friday, where the rescheduled Grade 1 Ballymore Novice Hurdle finally was able to take place 5 days late. Paul Townend opted to ride SAINT BACO, which initially saw the market speak in his favour, but he drifted out to 9/2 before the off and duly disappointed in sixth place. Stablemate SORTUDO went off favourite and ran much better in second, but in what looked like a very slow-motion and gruelling finish, he was no match for Declan Queally’s I’LL SORT THAT. It certainly was not a race which made a great visual impression, but the winner tough it out in front and is now into 16/1 for both the Turners and the Albert Bartlett. Willie Mullins’ runner-up was talked up as an Albert Bartlett horse himself in the early parts of the season, but the fact he didn’t go by here suggests to me that an increase in distance would be a stretch too far.
Elsewhere on the card, QUIRYN moved into 12/1 favourite for the Champion Bumper with an impressive 9 length victory, but I was most interested to hear Patrick Mullins state that Closutton have sent their Bumper Horses to ‘bootcamp’, and that he thinks they have turned a corner. That could suggest there are plenty more similar performances to follow from a string full of potential. Another smart performance came from FLICKER OF HOPE in the 3m Novice Chase, where he stayed on strongly to give 8lbs and a beating to KURASSO BLUE. He is now into 16/1 for the National Hunt Chase, but a new Irish Handicap mark of 142 does need to be taken into consideration for that 0-145 event – a dangerous position to be in before the British Handicapper has his say.
Kempton was the sole Jumps card to go ahead on Saturday, but in terms of Cheltenham clues, I do think it was quite limited. IBERICO LORD bolted up in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle but has been raised 8lbs for the pleasure, whilst the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, followed by a tilt at Aintree, seems to be on the cards for Dan Skelton’s impressive 4yo winner PRECIOUS MAN. The closest we got was Alan King’s BARON NOIR, who won the opening 2m Novices’ Hurdle under a penalty, and he is now into 33/1 for the Supreme. Connections certainly have every right to aim him that way, but you would probably be surprised if he is good enough at this stage in his career. If he were mine, I would opt to run in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle back at Kempton before thinking towards March.
Punchestown rounded off the week nicely with a good card on Sunday, and in the 2m3½f Grade 3 Novice Chase, KAPPA JY PYKE came from off the pace to sweep aside all of his rivals. He seems to be a horse who keeps surprising Team Mullins, considering he has now beaten two odds-on stablemates in Salvator Mundi and PREDATORS GOLD, but on this occasion, you would have to say that Paul Townend’s mount was very much softened up out in front by THE ENABLER. Perhaps the winner would be better off staying at home for the 2m4f Grade 1 Novice Chase run at Fairyhouse, considering this trip seems to suit him well. I did think that JACOB’S LADDER was a real eye-catcher in second place, however, and he was another closer from the rear. The Irish assessor raised him 5lbs to an official rating of 143 for that effort, but he could certainly be one for the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, for which he is now best priced 25/1.
Midnite
NEWS ROUNDUP
We seem to get various news updates regarding Cheltenham horses on a daily basis this time of year, so in this section, I will round up all of the most important bits which you may have missed. Champion Hurdle favourite SIR GINO received an entry in the Champion Chase last week, but this week he also received his Champion Hurdle entry. Nicky Henderson has stated that he is an intended runner in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day, however, where he is likely to face off against THE NEW LION. Willie Mullins’ Triumph Hurdle winner PONIROS could also turn up at Prestbury Park on the 24th January, but if he does skip that engagement, then he is likely to go to the Irish Champion Hurdle instead.
Perhaps the biggest piece of news in the National Hunt world surrounds Harry Cobden, who this week was announced as the new retained rider for JP McManus in both Britain and Ireland. That job does not officially start until the 1st May, but it will certainly be interesting to see if he picks up any spare rides for the green and gold in this interim period.
In terms of Horses who we will not be seeing at the Cheltenham Festival, DJELO has been ruled out for the rest of the season by Venetia Williams. CRISTAL D’ESTRUVAL is unfortunately out for Harry Derham, and DERRYHASSEN PADDY is also out for the Lucinda Russell team, who hope he is able to get back in time for Punchestown. Amongst the Horses not entered for the Champion Hurdle today was WILLIAM MUNNY, and it seems that the race against time for him to get over his niggling issues has come to an end.
THE WEEK AHEAD
There is an abundance of important trials coming up, starting off with the rearranged Fairyhouse card on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the opening 4YO Hurdle where Willie Mullins pitches two exciting French Recruits in MACHO MAN and PROACTIF against each other, and the winner would surely be a contender for the Triumph. In the following race, we will then see if the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle favourite BAMBINO FEVER can get off the mark over timber at the second attempt, whilst over at Newbury, FIRE WARNING will bid to lay down his Supreme credentials for Nicky Henderson and Rich Ricci. The Winter Millions meeting at Windsor and Ascot will then take place from Friday until Sunday, with the feature Grade 1 Clarence House Chase set to be a rematch between IL ETAIT TEMPS and JONBON.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ANTE-POST SELECTIONS
LA CONQUIERE – Mares Novice – 1pt Win
Best odds of 12/1 at bet365 while publishing.
The selection this week is one who will be running on the weekend, and she has significant potential to shorten should she put in another impressive performance. Back when LA CONQUIERE won the Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury on the 29th November, you would quite reasonably expect that plenty more contenders in this division would appear, but aside from the short-priced favourite Bambino Fever and her conqueror Oldschool Outlaw, there really hasn’t been much movement.
Jamie Snowden’s 7yo ran an absolute blinder on her debut for the yard last Spring, however, where she contested the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree and was only beaten half-a-length by Seo Linn – who is a proper Flat-bred horse now rated 86 in that code. Considering our Mare is a National Hunt type, she did extremely well on her first start for 103 days, and she even had the useful Kingston Queen two lengths behind.
Connections were rightfully excited to send her jumping this campaign, and on Hurdles' debut she was immediately victorious at Uttoxeter. The race was quite a slowly run affair, and it developed into a bit of a sprint, but despite the runner-up Dream Shadow (who has won twice since) having first run, LA CONQUIERE showed a lovely turn of foot to score a shade cosily come the line.
Her aforementioned Listed success at Newbury was where she really proved herself to be a genuine contender at this level; however, under a confident Gavin Sheehan ride, she again showed a really nice turn of foot after the last to lengthen away and score by an easy 3.5 lengths. Twice then, she has shown a turn of foot and done her best work in the closing stages of a race, which to me is the perfect running style for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. It is also worth noting that the penalty structure for Grade 2 at Cheltenham has now been abolished, so she won’t have to carry any penalties for winning at the Listed level.
This weekend, Jamie Snowden’s exciting Mare holds three entries, and the intention is very much to take up one of those engagements on route to Cheltenham. I doubt she will go up to Haydock and take on the boys Old Park Star and Hurricane Pat, but Ascot could emerge as an option, as although it is a Grade 2 event against the older Mares, the current favourite in what is set to be a small field is Nurse Susan, who surely wants further than two miles.
Realistically, however, the most likely target is Windsor on Sunday, where Gavin Sheehan is already jocked up. This Class 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle was won by Love Envoi on the way to her Cheltenham success, and LA CONQUIERE is clearly the best Mare entered in the race on paper. She does have to carry an 8lbs penalty due to her Listed success, but should she come through this test, I think giving weight away all around would enhance her Festival credentials once more. Jamie Snowden thinks the absolute world of her, and he knows what it takes to win this race, having done so with You Wear It Well. Champion Bumper winner Bambino Fever may well prove a tough nut to crack, but she doesn’t look to have the same sort of speed as our Mare possesses.
Ryanair Chase
JONBON – Ryanair Chase – 1pt Win
Best odds of 16/1 at William Hill while publishing.
The second selection I want to take a chance on at this stage is JONBON, who, as mentioned above, will rematch with Il Etait Temps in the Clarence House at Ascot on Saturday. Now I think it is pretty safe to say that he is not quite the Horse he once was over the two-mile trip, as he has not won over the minimum distance since the Clarence House 12 months ago. His subsequent Champion Chase attempt was a disaster from the very outset, but despite this, he still stepped back up in trip to 2m4f for the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree and comfortably dispatched the field for a second year running.
Since then, he is 0/2 against what is now the younger and quicker Il Etait Temps, but what I liked in the Tingle Creek was that he left his performance in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham well behind him – and he ended up reversing the form with L’Eau Du Sud when beating that rival by 9 lengths at Sandown. I have long been a believer that the 2m4½f Ryanair Chase trip would be much more suitable for him, however, and going that stride slower in this contest could be just what he needs to get over his apparent Cheltenham voodoo.
Nicky Henderson has stated that Clarence House will confirm to connections which route they take at the Cheltenham Festival, and therefore, should Il Etait Temps be successful again, that would surely mean JONBON takes his chance up in trip – a route which has certainly benefitted old boys Un De Sceaux, Min, Envoi Allen and Protektorat in recent renewals. If you look at the Ryanair market, it is
littered with potential non-runners too, as Jango Baie (8/1), Gaelic Warrior (8/1), Majborough (10/1), Romeo Coolio (20/1), The Jukebox Man (20/1) and Grey Dawning (20/1) are likely to run elsewhere. The obvious obstacle would be Fact To File, but he has already been beaten twice this season and now has to bounce back from a below-par effort in the King George. Nicky Henderson’s chasing star could be a serious shortener in this market on Saturday afternoon, though, and we don’t even need him to win for that scenario to unfold.
Midnite
2026 BETS SO FAR
HONESTY POLICY – Stayers Hurdle @ 16/1 – Now 9/2
ACT OF INNOCENCE – Supreme @ 20/1 – Now 50/1
MANGE TOUT – Triumph @ 10/1 – Now 10/1
LA CONQUIERE – Mares Novice @ 12/1 – Now 12/1
JONBON – Ryanair @ 16/1 – Now 16/1
