Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

NATALIE’S JOY (best price 11-8) not only made a striking winning debut at Goodwood, her winning 6f time was right up there with some of the fastest juvenile speed figures already recorded so far this season (0.72 seconds better than the older horse handicap) and with stable mate Main Edition going on to land Albany Stakes here yesterday, there’s plenty of confidence behind this filly repeating the dose for her in-form yard. Looking the part beforehand, this tall, scopey daughter of Lope De Vega has clearly got an engine to match her frame and in putting daylight between herself and her toiling rivals at the Sussex track, she immediately had Royal Ascot stamped in her passport. Indeed, since 2016 only two other 2yos have won by six lengths or more over the same track and they were Threading, who went on to win the Lowther, and subsequent 2000 Guineas hero, Night Of Thunder. Looking sure to appreciate the extra distance and stiff, galloping track, it would come as something of a disappointment if she fails to deliver the goods.

A minefield of a race to solve for punters, but with the aid of some all-important speed figures, both QUEEN OF BERMUDA (best price 7-1) and SOLDIER’S CALL (best price 16-1) should be capable of going well for those needing some divine inspiration.

The former was an eye-catching runner-up on debut in what’s turned out to be an informative contest over today’s C&D and her subsequent two victories have come courtesy of very fast speed figures. Firstly, at Thirsk, she showed a bundle of all-round pace to scamper away from her field late on and that useful burst of acceleration was seen to good effect at Windsor on her latest outing. Not overly big but a bundle of speed all wrapped up in a nice little package, the daughter of Exceed And Excel also has a potentially favourable middle draw in order to play a significant role.

The latter hasn’t got the sexy profile of some, but that shouldn’t detract from his chance and he appears to be massively overpriced on his overall form and numbers he’s already posted. Runner-up when the two-year-old course record was broken on debut at Lingfield, Archie Watson’s colt was duly made a warm order to score at the second time of asking at Haydock last time out and he didn’t miss the target. Winning as he liked, the son of Showcasing clocked a fair speed figure into the bargain and handily drawn where some of the speedier front runners are housed, he has enough quality to make a bigger impact than the market anticipates.

PADRAIC O’CONAIRE (best price 11-2) rattled out some pretty tasty numbers for a horse of his grade at Listowel last time out and he can translate the same level of performance going right-handed, there’s every chance the six-year-old can follow up. Going into that competitive contest 19 days ago, the Mountain High gelding impressed by the way he travelled throughout and in finding a smart turn of foot from the back of the second last, he readily pulled clear of his rivals. Moreover, his final lap time superseded the ones posted by the likes of Sapphire Lady and Black Key (both rated in the 120+ category), who landed their respective 2m maiden hurdles on the same card, and given that the lightly-raced sort was racing over half a mile further, those numbers stack up well for a horse rated just 85. Despite being up 8lb in the ratings, that shouldn’t be enough to stop him if he’s in the same form and in a race which lacks any great strength in depth, it’s a surprise he’s available to back at 11-2 at the morning odds.

The key to the outcome to this Group 1 contest could turn out to be the Lexus Newmarket Handicap run at Flemington back in March and although on that occasion Redkirk Warrior came out on top, there’s every chance that MERCHANT NAVY (best price 4-1) can turn around the form. Drawn on the far side that day, the son of Fastnet Rock found himself away from the speed over towards the far side at halfway and although he did his level best to claw back the deficit in the final furlong (five lengths behind with two furlongs to run), he just couldn’t quite peg back his old rival, who was winning the race for the second year in succession. Switched to race in Ireland, Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old made the perfect start for the Ballydoyle handler when landing a Group 2 prize at the Curragh in a fast time with a degree of comfort and that performance should have put a nice edge on his preparations for today’s assignment.

Of the main dangers, Harry Angel obviously comes into calculations being one of the finest sprinters of his generation and having just narrowly failed in his bid to land the Commonwealth Cup here last year, connections will be keen to gain some compensation twelve months on. The case for the prosecution will say, however, that he’s yet to score at Ascot in four previous visits and his yard hasn’t had the most productive of weeks, so he may prove to be a risky bet at relatively short odds. The Tin Man landed a slightly sub-standard renewal of this race last year, but he does love the track and he arrives here in great form following a smooth success on his seasonal return at Windsor. In that race at the Berkshire venue, D’Bai shaped well on his first run back off the plane and he’s subsequently landed a decent prize in a fast time at Haydock, while Librisa Breeze’s claims would have been more obvious but for the fast underfoot conditions he encounters.

Although there appears to be no massive draw bias down the straight track this week, most of the winners have come up the middle, so with that in mind and, given that short-priced favourite Dreamfield is likely to blaze a trail from stall 8, both GILGAMESH (NAP) (best price 14-1) and SPRING LOADED (best price 33-1) are well placed to make some sort of impact at the finish.

The former has a nice profile for this race having the cruising speed for six furlongs and the stamina for seven and following a victory over the latter distance which eventually got him into this race with an 8lb rise at York last time, connections will be hopeful of hatching a long-term plan. Prior to that tidy success on the Knavesmire, George Scott’s gelding had shown an immediate liking for today’s course with a cracking effort in the Victoria Cup (won his race on the stands side) and with that contest often a key guide to the outcome of this race down the years, everything looks set fair for a bold show from this strapping son of Foxwedge.

The latter hasn’t run for 217 days but he does go well fresh and he did finish seventh in this race back in 2016 off a break so the mind is put at ease on that score. Since then, Paul D’Arcy’s gelding has worked his way through the ranks and put up some big performances on the clock in similar races and his winning effort in last year’s Portland can only be described as totally breath-taking. Coming from a long way off the pace that day, the son Zebedee swept by a field of top-class handicappers in the style of a pattern performer and if he can run to anywhere near the same level here this afternoon, odds of 33-1 would look massive about this talented sprinter.

FUN MAC (best price 16-1) was given little chance to be competitive in this race last year and following a cracking effort when runner-up in the Chester Cup last time out (winner landed Group 3 Henry II Stakes since), his prospects of playing a slightly more significant role look fairly decent. Posted in the outside stall here twelve months ago, Hughie Morrison’s charge found himself in an impossible position turning for home, but to his great credit, he did at least make up plenty of ground in the closing stages to suggest he might have played a hand in the finish with a better draw. Housed in box 8 this afternoon, hopefully he can obtain a better track position this time around and he only has to repeat his latest performance on the Roodeye or the one which allowed him to finish second to Clondaw Warrior in the 2015 Ascot Stakes to enable him to outrun his 16-1 quotes. Thomas Hobson is sure to be all the rage having narrowly failed to follow up his victory in the Ascot Stakes in this race last year, but as Willie Mullins has already made a mockery of the former contest on Tuesday, understandably bookmakers are taking no chances at 6-4.

LA ISLA BONITA (best price 11-4) got on the golden highway up the stands rails to record a facile success at Yarmouth last time out and with a small field in attendance again this evening, there’s a strong possibility that Richard Spencer’s can repeat the dose if there does become a bias towards the nearside fence here tonight. Cutting a slightly frustrating figure up until that point, the daughter of Foxwedge landed a nice touch in making virtually all the running at the seaside track and with her time figure suggesting she’d run to a fair standard that day, the four-year-old filly will take some stopping if she’s in the same sort of shape.