Andy Holding's Royal Ascot Thursday Racing Tips

The late defection of the likely short priced favourite Al Aakif - probably due to the ground - has left this race up for grabs and at the prices, COASTAL MIST (best price 11-4) and JUST JEAN (best price 9-1) are worth playing against the field.

Representing a yard who know a thing or two about readying one first time, it was significant the former was well found in the market for his debut at Wetherby and as it turned out, the money wasn't misplaced. Always moving well, John Quinn's colt just took a while to hit top gear at the Yorkshire venue, but once he engaged his mind on the job at hand, he just had to be nudged out in the closing stages to win with more in hand than the official winning margin suggested. Clocking a decent speed figure, this likeable type looks open to any amount of improvement and providing he can handle today's softer conditions, he can continue on an upward trajectory from his favourable draw close to the fence.

The latter had the misfortune to bump into the very smart Praxeology over today's C&D on debut but she did more than enough to suggest she can be found a small race somewhere close to home. Keeping on well late on, Micky Hammond's filly managed to get withing five lengths of a horse who's subsequently gone on to win in a higher grade, and as the time figure of that race in question here 14 days ago was also very good, she should be capable of holding her own back at the scene of that initial effort.

There’s bound to be quite a bit of conjecture about the ground and draw, but in the shape of SUNDAY SOVEREIGN (best price 2-1) we are dealing with a two-year-old capable of running to a high level under any conditions and he will hopefully get favourite backers off to a flyer on day three.

Too green to do himself total justice on his debut at Naas, he still, however, shaped with plenty of encouragement, and he went on to justify that promise with a performance of some authority and class at the Curragh next time out. Striding out well late on, Paddy Twomey’s colt clocked a smart set of figures to beat the well-touted Arizona over six-furlongs and with that horse going on to land the Coventry here on day one, the form has even more significance. Subsequently changing hands to join the powerful squad of King Power Racing, the son of Equiano justified the big bucks spent on him by hosing up in a listed contest at Tipperary and although he probably didn’t beat a stellar field, once again his time figure suggested we are dealing with a pretty smart juvenile. As the ground was fairly testing that day, the rain they’ve had at the Berkshire venue shouldn’t bother him as much as others and given how strong he hit the line at the Limerick Junction venue (really opened up inside the final furlong), today’s stiff track should also suit.

If the favourite turns up in the same form we’ve seen so far, he’s the most likely winner, but if for some reason he doesn’t, one of the most likely benefactors could be A’ALI (best price 13-2). Unconventional in the sense he arrives here a maiden after finishing second at Ripon on debut, the time figure he posted in defeat, however, suggests he’s well worth his place in the line-up. Backed as if defeat was out of the question at the Yorkshire track, for most of the journey Simon Crisford’s colt looked like justifying the gamble, however, he couldn’t just quite go past the more-experienced and similarly well-regarded Spartan Fighter and he had to settle for an honourable runner-up spot. Likely to have benefitted both mentally and physically from that initial outing, he’s out of a sire that relished the stiff nature of today’s track with some cut in the ground (Society Rock) and this very sharp and precocious colt should give a good account.

FOX CHAIRMAN (best price 4-1) is by some way the least experienced of today’s field, but he could easily end up being the most talented long term and with anything like a clear run through, he should go very close to vindicating his desperately unlucky run at Chester last time out. Impressive on the eye and on the numbers on debut at Newbury on soft ground, connections took him Chester to find out whether he was a genuine Classic contender and although he came up a little short in terms of where he finished, it may well have been a totally different story had he obtained a smoother passage on the Roodee. Held up going well in behind the pace, Andrew Balding’s charge somehow managed to get into trouble in a six runner field and, as a result, the best he could do was finish a never-nearer third. Finishing full of running, the son of Kingman got within three lengths of Circus Maximus and with that horse going on to advertise the value of the form both in the Derby and at Ascot yesterday, he looks to have strong claims based on the theory he would have landed the Dee Stakes with normal luck in running.

Having already run well in two Guineas, it’s quite a surprise to see stable jockey, Richard Kingscote, desert GREAT SCOTT (best price 14-1) in favour of Arthur Kitt, but either way, Tom Dascombe’s three-year-old looks to have bright prospects despite that slight negative.

A staying-on third in what turned out to be a red-hot Greenham on his seasonal return, the Requinto colt then found the undulations on fast ground in the English Guineas at Newmarket all against him and he could only finish in mid-division. Back on a more suitable surface in the German version last time, he stayed on strongly from the middle of the pack to claim an honourable third at the line and with today’s step up in trip threatening to bring about even further improvement, he should be capable of outrunning his odds.

There’d no more popular winner than Stradivarius as he bids to win back-to-back Gold Cup’s in the hands of Frankie Dettori, but he faces no easy task on ground that he’d sooner do without and he’s passed over in favour of French raider CALLED TO THE BAR (best price 20-1) – who will also have his legion of supporters for those doing as he name suggests on an alcohol-fuelled afternoon at the Berkshire track.

Probably not that well-known with UK punters, Pia Brandt’s five-year-old is certainly no back number in his native land and the way he won the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp last time out points towards a horse who needs plenty of respect. Held up off the pace at the Paris venue, he came with a powerful run down the outside in the home straight to pass the entire field and with his closing sectionals being a second quicker than Zabeel Prince, who took the big 1m1f contest on the same card, it’s clear this stayer has got plenty of gears to match his stamina. Undone by being ridden too close to the pace the time before, hopefully connections will have done their homework and ask Maxime Guyon to ride him chilly out the back, and if that turns out to be the case, his turn of foot can have some sort of bearing at the business end. Connections of Dee Ex Bee have been really happy with his homework since landing the Henry II Stakes at Sandown and although he’s not one to dismiss readily, the recent rain has just put a slight dampener on his prospects.

As ever, a typically tough conundrum to solve for punters with so many intertwining form lines and if the ground hadn’t deteriorated the way it has, the potentially top-class Velorum would have been the automatic choice. Unfortunately, being a son of Sea The Stars, his lovely, flowing action might not be seen to full advantage and at the prices, he’s passed over for another day.

Of those that won’t mind the conditions and still has plenty of upside off his current mark is MIGRATION (NAP) (best price 7-1) and following the defections of two runners due to the weather, David Menuisier’s colt has been handed a golden opportunity to take his place in an environment where he rightly belongs (gets in as first reserve). A big eye-catcher first time out this season at Newbury when he ran huge against the track bias, the subsequent exploits of the winner (Fox Champion) suggested he’d run even better than we thought at the time. Sent to Sandown to contest the Esher Cup, the son of Alhebayeb ran an extraordinary race to finish a never-nearer second, leaving the impression he was by half-an-hour the best horse in the field. Well-backed to vindicate the nature of his performance at the Esher track next time out at Newmarket, the useful three-year-old finally got his just rewards with a victory of some substance and with the time figure and backend sectionals all stacking up to suggest he’d run to a fairly useful level, he certainly deserves his chance to play with the big boys. Being out of a sire who took the 2012 July Stakes on soft ground, Migration shouldn’t have too many issues regards the surface, and with a run style that is tailor-made for the stiff, straight mile at Ascot, it would be a surprise if this likeable colt isn’t involved in the finish.

Silvester De Sousa doesn’t appear the kind of chap who has too many sleepless nights, but even he must have had a headache or two trying to choose between Fox Premier and GOOD BIRTHDAY (best price 14-1) but with the ground being an unknown for the former, the latter is fancied to get the bragging rights of the two Balding runners.

Unlucky when runner-up in a soft-ground maiden at Windsor on just his second start, the son of Dabarasim duly went one place better in a much stronger race at Newbury on his final start of the season. Held up off a strong pace, he impressed with the way he made up his ground inside the final two furlongs and then showing great tenacity, he fought off a series of challengers that including the likes of Qarasu, Current Option and Babbo’s Boy, who have all gone on to frank the form this term. Beginning this season off what appeared a fair mark of 82, Golden Birthday posted some big numbers in coming from last to first in a competitive handicap at Doncaster and off the back of that display, it came as no surprise to see his sights raised for his next and latest encounter back at Newbury. In what is a traditionally strong 1m2f handicap run at the Berkshire venue, he was set a mountain to climb after being dropped out by design due to his coffin box draw (stall 16 of 16), but to his great credit, he almost pulled off the impossible by coming from a mile back turning for home to only narrowly go down all guns blazing in a driving finish. Clearly a horse with a huge engine and will to win on the evidence of that effort, he looks top have all the requisite qualities for a race of this nature and with seemingly plenty in his favour, he receives a strong vote of confidence to add to his trainer’s winning Ascot tally.