Andy Holding's Royal Ascot Saturday Racing Tips

Lope Y Fernandez looked really good on his debut at the Curragh and being the type who should really improve when racing over middle distances further down the line, today’s stiff test should prove ideal. However, with Ryan Moore booked, he’s been predictably well found in the market and as the former champion jockey doesn’t always pick the right one of Aidan O’Brien’s runners (presuming he has choice), supposed second string, YEAR OF THE TIGER (best price 14-1 / 9-1 w/o Lope Y Fernandez), might to be good enough to gain the yard bragging rights at Ballydoyle. Making his debut at the Curragh on the same card as Lope Y Fernandez, he was much the easier to back of the pair running in the six-furlong maiden half-an-hour later and although he didn’t manage to follow in the same shoes as his stable mate, he came away from his race with just as much promise. Held up towards the back in an evenly-run affair, the Galileo colt kept on well in the latter stages to finish a never-nearer second to the better positioned Lil Grey (sixth in yesterday’s Albany) and is often the case with siblings from that particular bloodline, he left the impression he was bound to come on for the run and improve significantly for a step up in trip. Moreover, his closing sectionals of 36.2 (hand timed) were only just behind his more illustrious stable mate (36.0), so despite the market telling us there’s a big difference between the pair, the numbers suggest that could be an unwise stance to take.

The first thing to point out when trying to whittle down the field for this Group 3 seven-furlong contest is that five of the last seven winners have all been refugees in a Guineas of some description, so without that stat not necessarily ruling out Space Blues entirely, it might make you want to think again at taking a relatively short price. Although beaten by the Godolphin-trained colt at Epsom last time out, URBAN ICON (best price 9-1) did take part in the English 2000 Guineas and having run well at Newmarket that day and in both of his other two starts either side, he looks the one to be with following the trends.

Unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile, Richard Hannon’s colt made his seasonal debut in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury back in April and in what turned out to be a well-run affair, he clocked a big speed despite being beaten three lengths by the very impressive winner, Mohaather. After failing to get home in the first Classic of the campaign, he then went to Epsom on Derby Day to contest a listed prize back over seven-furlongs and although he ended up playing second fiddle to Space Blues, he still came out of the race with great credit. In what turned out to be a slowly-run tactical affair, the son of Cityscape just got done for pace as the winner dive-bombed him with a late swoop down the outside, but now back over a course where there’s more emphasis on stamina, there’s every chance he won’t be too far away.

REYNOLDS (best price 7-4) shaped with an enormous amount of promise on his debut at Newbury a month ago and with the winner that day, Biometric, going on to advertise the form in spectacular fashion in the Britannia Handicap on Thursday, it makes sense to keep him on side.

Sent off a big 50-1 outsider at the Berkshire venue, Eve Johnson Houghton’s colt belied those wild odds in a massive way and the way he finished off his race inside the final two furlongs suggested he would have probably won with another furlong to race. Using that theory as a guide, today’s extra mile trip and stiffer track should suit and even though he faces a couple of opponents that have also run to a fair level, he shouldn’t be intimidated be their presence.

A terrific turnout for the final Group 1 of the meeting and with Blue Point an unexpected addition after his win in the Kings Stand on day one, it makes for a mouth-watering affair. The other thing to point out is the draw and with most of the jockeys seemingly happy to go down the middle yesterday on the straight track, life could be quite difficult for the likes of last year’s runner-up Bound For Nowhere out of gate 1 and The Tin Man the other side in 17.

Runner-up in this race last year, CITY LIGHT (best price 9-1) has been trained with this as a target ever since and following a nice comeback run at Maisons-Laffitte last time out, he should be cherry-ripe in his bid to go one place better. Having had a nice 57-day break since then, the five-year-old should be at fever-pitch for his second crack at this prize and drawn nicely in stall seven means that he should be able to track the pace down the middle likely to be set by Kachy, before being delivered late.

Quite a few with strong form claims, particularly over today’s C&D and one of those who appears to have the necessary class to feature if on his A-game is HEY JONESY (NAP) (best price 12-1). A smart two-year-old good enough to finish fourth in the Group 1 Middle Park behind subsequent July Cup hero U S Navy Flag, Kevin Ryan’s gelding struggled to get his head in front through the entirety of last season at the very top level, but he did run some notable races in defeat, with his best performance coming when an honourable fifth in the Commonwealth Cup over today’s C&D. Having the likes of Invincible Army (albeit not at his best), Cardsharp, Equilateral, and Speak In Colours, to name but a few, behind him that day, a run anywhere near the same level will surely see him go close off a mark of 106. Moreover, he seems to have taken well to a couple of big procedures during the off season based on his two performances so far this campaign and being drawn right down the middle right in-between the three likely pace setters, Recon Mission, Watchable and Lake Volta, the son of Excelebration can get a lovely tow off that trio before being delivered with a late knockout blow.

INDIANAPOLIS (best price 11-2) stayed on well to finish on the coat tails of some pretty smart handicappers in a fast time at York last time out and providing he can run to a similar level here this afternoon, a big run looks on the cards.

Held up towards the rear of the field, James Given’s colt made up a good deal of ground inside the final three furlongs to finish a never-nearer sixth behind First Eleven and with the likes of Red Galileo, Caliburn and Fujaira Prince and Corgo at Ascot yesterday all boosting the form, there’s no reason why he won’t do the same off the same mark with conditions to suit.

As usually, a real mish-mash of characters line up for this traditional getting out stakes, and with the recent trends for this marathon prize edging back towards the genuine Flat horses with a touch of quality winning, CLEONTE (best price 5-1) fits that criteria perfectly.

Not quite top-class, Andrew Balding’s gelding, however, has run a series of fine races in many high-quality handicaps, highlighted by his win over today’s course last August and his third in the Cesarewitch two months later. A creditable third behind subsequent Gold Cup third Dee Ex Bee in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes again over today’s course on his seasonal return, the six-year-old then went on to run better than his final finishing position suggested in the Chester Cup last time out. Nicely drawn, the son of Sir Percy somehow found himself with only two behind him with a circuit to run, so to end up finishing a creditable sixth under the circumstances was an effort worth upgrading. Although slightly disappointing in the Ascot Stakes at last year’s meeting, there’s no doubt that he’s improved immeasurably since then and hailing from a stable that sent out Dashing Willoughby to land the big stamina-based three-year-old prize earlier in the week, there’s every chance he can follow suit.