Steve Ryder finds the horse that hits all the key betting trends for the first race on Day 1 at Royal Ascot.
15:40 Tuesday
The opening day of Royal Ascot is the highest quality with three Group 1 races as well as the leading juvenile race. The Queen Anne Stakes appears to be a rematch between the top four from the Lockinge Stakes, last year’s 1-2-4-5-6 all contest the King Charles III Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes sees a clash between the English, Irish and French 2000 Guineas winners.
Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips
3:40 Ascot - Rumstar 28/1 (0.5pt ew)
If you forgive RUMSTAR (best priced at 28/1) his disappointing effort in the Temple Stakes last time then he looks hugely overpriced back at Ascot. The Jonny Portman trained five-year-old outran odds of 80/1 to finish a close 5th in the Commonwealth Cup in 2023 and showed his liking for 5f when dropped in trip to win the listed Rous Stakes by 2 lengths on his final start last season.
Rumstar made a winning reappearance at Newmarket in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes when he beat She’s Quality and Washington Heights who went on to finish 2nd and 3rd in the Temple Stakes behind Mgheera on their next start. Rumstar disappointed in that race but it is the second time he has underperformed at that track so he is forgiven it and it is worth noting that of the four horses who won this race having run in the Temple Stakes prior to it, only one had won.
17:00 Tuesday
5:00 Ascot - Dawn Rising 25/1 (0.5pt ew)
DAWN RISING (best priced at 25/1) has a good record at this meeting and he looks wildly overpriced dropped into this 0-100 handicap off top weight.
The Joseph O’Brien trained eight-year-old won the Queen Alexandra Stakes in 2023 under Ryan Moore when sent off 2/1 favourite before finishing 3rd behind stablemate Uxmal in the same race last season under William Buick when sent off only 3/1. He was rated 102 and 105 on those two occasions meaning that he was too high in the weights for this race.
Since his run here last year, Dawn Rising has finished 5th in the Irish Cesarewitch beaten only 6 lengths off a mark of 102, finished 6th in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket beaten only 3 ¾ lengths off a mark of 104 before winning a Group 3 contest at the Curragh over 2m½f.
His two runs so far this season have been poor but as a result he has now dropped down to a mark of 100 which means he can run in this race and he looks overpriced with a tongue tie on.
17:35 Tuesday
5:35 Ascot - Sons And Lovers 9/1 (0.5pt ew)
SONS AND LOVERS (best priced at 9/1) ran well on multiple occasions last season when trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam and he has caught the eye on his two starts for Joseph O’Brien. The four-year-old finished behind the likes of Haatem, Almaqam, Jayarebe, Phantom Flight and Ombudsman last season having been exclusively campaigned at group/listed level following a debut success at Newmarket.
Catching the eye on both occasions so far this season, Sons And Lovers has run well over 1m2f at the Curragh. On his latest start he was only beaten 3 lengths by Los Angeles in the Mooresbridge Stakes when White Birch was 2nd and Trustyourinstinct was 3rd. The winner and 3rd have won again since to boost that form and he looks sure to run well with Ryan Moore taking over on board.
18:10 Tuesday
6:10 Ascot - French Master 5/2 (1pt)
Wathan Racing have been splashing the cash in the build up to this meeting and amongst their recent acquisitions is FRENCH MASTER (best priced at 5/2). The John & Thady Gosden trained four-year-old ran well to finish 2nd at Newmarket on his reappearance in a race which is working out well.
El Cordobes won and then finished 3rd in a Group 3 and is rated 8lbs higher, the 3rd Lieber Power finished 4th beaten 1 ¾ lengths on his next start and the 4th Lavender Hill Mob won on his next start and is now rated 4lbs higher.
French Master won last time at Goodwood despite finding lots of trouble when upped in trip to 1m6f for the first time. The handicapper has only raised him 4lbs for that success giving the impression that there is still more to come and the fitting of blinkers should help James Doyle as he ran in snatches last time.
Key Royal Ascot Stats & Trends for Day 1
Queen Anne Stakes:
- Nine of the previous 12 winners were aged four
- Seven of the previous 12 winners had won a Group 1 race
- Seven of the previous 12 winners were favourites
- Seven of the previous eight winners had previously won at Ascot
- Six of the previous eight winners had run in the Lockinge Stakes last time (only three had won)
- ******Rosallion hits ALL of the trends*****
King Charles III Stakes
- 12 of the previous 12 winners had won a group race, seven had won a Group 1
- 11 of the previous 12 winners were rated 112 or higher
- Eight of the previous 12 winners were aged 4-6
- Four of the previous 12 winners run in the Temple Stakes last time (only one won)
St James’s Palace Stakes
- Nine of the previous 12 winners had never raced at Ascot before
- Eight of the previous 12 winners had won a Group 1 race
- Seven of the previous 12 winners won on their previous start
- Six of the previous 12 winners had run in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time
Top Trainers and Jockeys to Follow at Royal Ascot
Aidan O’Brien has been leading trainer at this meeting 13 times and has a record 91 Royal Ascot winners in total. Unsurprisingly, he is odds-on to win that award once again ahead of Charlie Appleby and the John & Thady Gosden stable who were the leading stable in 2020 and 2021.
Ryan Moore rode a remarkable nine winners at this meeting in 2015 and has been the leading jockey at the meeting the previous three years taking his total to 11 since 2010 accumulating 85 winners overall. Oisin Murphy was leading jockey in 2021 but the market has James Doyle, the retained rider for Wathnan Racing, as the biggest threat to Ryan Moore this year.
Key Races & Horses to Watch on Day 1 at Royal Ascot
The first four from the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury all re-oppose and connections of Rosallion and Notable Speech will be hoping that their classic winning colts can step forward from their reappearance efforts. They are both rated 122 ahead of the 120 rated Lead Artist and 119 rated Dancing Gemini.
Sardinian Warrior, Docklands and Quddwah all boast course and distance victories over this straight mile and they could outrun their odds as well as Carl Spackler who is making his first start for Ciaron Maher.
Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer in this race with 10 victories since 1997 so his pair Gstaad and Warsaw have to be respected. Postmodern made an impressive winning debut at Yarmouth for Wathnan Racing who also have Underwriter who will be ridden by James McDonald. William Buick won this race aboard Buratino in 2015 and he rides Military Code who has won both of his starts including at this course over 5f under a penalty a month ago.
Last year’s winner Asfoora is back to defend her crown where she faces the runner-up Regional, fourth Believing and fifth Kerdos as well as two interesting four-year-olds Night Raider and Starlust. William Buick retains the ride on board Mgheera who won the Temple Stakes where she had the likes of Washington Heights, American Affair, Rumstar and Twilight Calls behind.
This looks one of the races of the week with 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court facing Irish 2000 Guineas winner Field Of Gold and French 2000 Guineas winner Henri Matisse. The market expects the John & Thady Gosden trained runner to reverse Newmarket form with Ruling Court which will be a big ride for new Juddmonte retained rider Colin Keane. It will be an interesting race to watch tactically with Windlord and First Wave also in the field but this should prove who is the best miler of this generation.
What’s Coming Up on Day 2 at Royal Ascot
The highlight of the second day of Royal Ascot is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where Aidan O’Brien will be hoping that Los Angeles can provide him with another win in the race following the success last year of Auguste Rodin.
