Best bets from Steve Ryder on Saturday’s Day 5 at Royal Ascot.
15:40 Saturday
The final day of Royal Ascot is headlined by the £1,000,000 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, featuring a field of 16 runners.
Let’s look at my betting tips for Day 5, as well as the all-important stats and trends – this includes one horse which hits all the betting trends for success over the last 12 renewals of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.
Royal Ascot Tips for Day 5
3:40 Great Generation 33/1 (0.5pt ew)
Thankfully Marco Botti listened to my plea on Racing Weekly this week and has decided to let GREAT GENERATION (best priced at 33/1) take her chance in this race.
The lightly raced four-year-old won the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes for the second year in a row on her reappearance at Lingfield on good to firm ground.
The form of that race is working out well with the runner-up Jabaara winning a listed race at Musselburgh on her next start and the third Spiritual winning a Group 3 at Epsom on her next start by 4¾ lengths.
Great Generation was keen, had to wait for room and in the end won cosily at the finish and this stiff 6f should suit her perfectly. Stall 10 should mean that Marco Ghiani has options of who to track into the race and she looks overpriced with extra places available.
17:00 Saturday
The Charlie Hills trained ORAZIO (best priced at 14/1) has been a frustrating horse for punters to follow as he often is found running on too late in these contests.
This year though connections have thankfully kept him fresh for this meeting and have no doubt targeted this race specifically.
The lightly raced six-year-old won over this course and distance in May 2023 by 2 ¼ lengths off a mark of 93 before finishing 6th beaten 2 ½ lengths off a mark of 102 in 2023 and 3rd beaten ¾ length under Saffie Osbourne last year off a mark of 100.
Orazio has now dropped down to a mark of 99 following some below par efforts at the end of last season but he now comes here fresh. He won on debut, won after a 102 day break, finished a close 3rd in a listed race at Doncaster after a 182 day break and then finished 3rd in this race last year after a 66 day break.
He returns here following 252 days off the track, is ridden again by Saffie Osbourne and crucially is drawn well in Stall 26. Use the extra places that are available as he will be ridden for luck but he looks sure to be involved in the finish.
Key Royal Ascot Stats & Trends for Day 5
Hardwicke Stakes:
- 11 of the previous 12 winners had won at Group level
- Nine of the previous 12 winners were aged four
- Nine of the previous 12 winners had at least one previous run at Ascot
- Nine of the previous 12 winners had a rating of 114 or higher
- Seven of the previous 12 winners won their previous start
- *Ghostwriter hits the first four trends*
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes:
- 11 of the previous 12 winners had won at Group level
- 10 of the previous 12 winners had at least one previous run at Ascot
- Nine of the previous 12 winners were rated 114 or higher
- Eight of the previous 12 winners were aged four or five
- ***Inisherin is the only horse to hit all four trends***
Jersey Stakes:
- 12 of the previous 12 winners had at least 3 previous career runs
- 10 of the previous 12 winners were beaten on their previous start
- Nine of the previous 12 winners had a rating of 108 or higher
Key Races & Horses to Watch on Day 5 at Royal Ascot
Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record seven times in his career so Moments of Joy is worthy of respect as a result. She won her only start prior to this and it was a race that has produced the winner of this in 2017 and 2024.
She faces the exciting Treanmor who cost Godolphin 2 million euros as a yearling prior to winning by four lengths on his debut at Newmarket. Both Humidity and Venetian Lace were also debutant winners and they look the biggest dangers ahead of Thesecretadversary who finished a close 2nd on his debut behind the well regarded Italy at Leopardstown.
This race changed complexion when antepost favourite Kalpana wasn’t declared. Rebel’s Romance has earnt £10.6 million in prize money and managed to win four Group/Grade 1 contests last season but a victory at Ascot is a missing off his impressive CV.
All three of Al Riffa, Space Legend and Sunway are fitted with a change of headgear and they are joined by course and distance winner Al Aasy and recent Amo Racing purchase Ghostwriter.
3:40 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
The Group 1 has an international flavour this year with Lazzat and Topgear coming over from France, Satono Reve from Japan and Storm Boy hoping to run better on his second run for Aidan O’Brien since transferring from Australia.
Wathnan Racing purchased both Lazzat and Flora Of Bermuda prior to this race so they have a strong hand alongside Sheikh Mohammed Obaid who has both Inisherin and Elite Status.
The dam of Comanche Brave won this race in 2012 and trainer Donnacha O’Brien has secured the services of Ryan Moore.
Joseph O’Brien has the lightly raced Saracen in the contest and another making his only third career start will be the unbeaten Remmooz for Owen Burrows.
The filly California Dreamer comes out top on weight adjusted ratings following her 2nd place finish in the Irish 1000 Guineas but it looks a really open renewal.
