Saturday morning's game is the equivalent of a Premier League side playing at Stockport in the League Cup on a Tuesday
Just three days after the 41-man squad touched down in Auckland, the hardest-ever British and Irish Lions tour, taking in all five Kiwi Super Rugby sides and a now international-level Maori All Blacks outfit as well as three-Tests against the mighty, maybe greatest-ever All Blacks, begins on Saturday in Whangarei with a gentle run-out against the New Zealand Provincial Barbarians.
Ignore the jetlag and the likely wet and windy weather and back the Lions to score 47 or more points. Warren Gatland's chosen matchday 23 appears way too powerful in the set-piece and at the breakdown for their hosts and should be too slick in the backs with dominance of possession and territory.
The men in red may concede a few points too, to put off thoughts of handicap bets pushing up into the high 30s, but for those steeped in Northern Hemisphere Rugby Union, a good way to describe the game is that it is the equivalent of an elite 23 playing a Friday night Anglo-Welsh Cup clash at Rodney Parade in Newport.
For those who know their football, for example, it is the equivalent of a Premier League side playing at Stockport in the League Cup on a Tuesday,
Gatland's son Bryn is one of a handful of Provincial Barbarians with a few Super Rugby outings, the rest are other promising rookies or rewarded journeymen from the Kiwi provincial competition that does not start until August. None have Super Rugby contracts, most have just started playing club rugby again and some have been put on specialist fitness regimes.
The Lions won't be lacking in motivation, won't be thinking the match is beneath them and have plenty of probable Test starters in their lineup including tour skipper Sam Warburton. It is not as though English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh players aren't used to playing in soggy conditions either.
There are plenty of tried and trusted combinations in the Lions side too. It is not just a thrown together touring outfit from those not involved in domestic action last weekend. Some are obvious to see like two Harlequins and England Props, an all-Welsh Back Row, an all-England Centre partnership. Others need a little thought. Fly-Half Johnny Sexton played with Inside Centre Ben Te'o at Leinster before Te'o's switch to Worcester. Hooker Rory Best knows one Lock Iain Henderson like the back of his hand because of Ulster and Ireland and would have thrown into the other Second Row Alun-Wyn Jones and Back Row targets Warburton and Taulupe Faletau down under four years ago.
A sluggish start will not be tolerated by Gatland either as it will have his homeland laughing and chirping about chaos like the 2005 tour under Sir Clive Woodward. All the good work of 2013 in winning the series in Australia and 2009 when a crazy first 20 minutes in the first Test in Durban arguably cost them the series. A slow start won't be the end of the world of course, and Gatland and the Lions players have thick skins, but it won't be helpful.
New Zealand Barbarians v Lions - Saturday 08:35 BST
Just three days after the 41-man squad touched down in Auckland, the hardest-ever British and Irish Lions tour, taking in all five Kiwi Super Rugby sides and a now international-level Maori All Blacks outfit as well as three-Tests against the mighty, maybe greatest-ever All Blacks, begins on Saturday in Whangarei with a gentle run-out against the New Zealand Provincial Barbarians.
Ignore the jetlag and the likely wet and windy weather and back the Lions to score 47 or more points. Warren Gatland's chosen matchday 23 appears way too powerful in the set-piece and at the breakdown for their hosts and should be too slick in the backs with dominance of possession and territory.
The men in red may concede a few points too, to put off thoughts of handicap bets pushing up into the high 30s, but for those steeped in Northern Hemisphere Rugby Union, a good way to describe the game is that it is the equivalent of an elite 23 playing a Friday night Anglo-Welsh Cup clash at Rodney Parade in Newport.
For those who know their football, for example, it is the equivalent of a Premier League side playing at Stockport in the League Cup on a Tuesday,
Gatland's son Bryn is one of a handful of Provincial Barbarians with a few Super Rugby outings, the rest are other promising rookies or rewarded journeymen from the Kiwi provincial competition that does not start until August. None have Super Rugby contracts, most have just started playing club rugby again and some have been put on specialist fitness regimes.
The Lions won't be lacking in motivation, won't be thinking the match is beneath them and have plenty of probable Test starters in their lineup including tour skipper Sam Warburton. It is not as though English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh players aren't used to playing in soggy conditions either.
There are plenty of tried and trusted combinations in the Lions side too. It is not just a thrown together touring outfit from those not involved in domestic action last weekend. Some are obvious to see like two Harlequins and England Props, an all-Welsh Back Row, an all-England Centre partnership. Others need a little thought. Fly-Half Johnny Sexton played with Inside Centre Ben Te'o at Leinster before Te'o's switch to Worcester. Hooker Rory Best knows one Lock Iain Henderson like the back of his hand because of Ulster and Ireland and would have thrown into the other Second Row Alun-Wyn Jones and Back Row targets Warburton and Taulupe Faletau down under four years ago.
A sluggish start will not be tolerated by Gatland either as it will have his homeland laughing and chirping about chaos like the 2005 tour under Sir Clive Woodward. All the good work of 2013 in winning the series in Australia and 2009 when a crazy first 20 minutes in the first Test in Durban arguably cost them the series. A slow start won't be the end of the world of course, and Gatland and the Lions players have thick skins, but it won't be helpful.
Power and precision from start to finish will be the watchwords of the Lions tactics talks, rather than intense defence, and this makes Te'o look a cracking price at 11-10 to score a try.
Te'o scored two tries in his only Six Nations start for England and was in wonderful scoring form when available to a scratchy Worcester outfit in the Premiership and European Challenge Cup around the turn of the year. It was his more recent efforts for the Warriors that convinced Gatland and his coaches to chose him in front of 2013 hero Jamie Roberts as much as his Kiwi, NRL and Leinster pedigree.
Three Lions replacements are worth small bets at bigger prices to score the last try. Sub hooker Jamie George will get involved in Lions rolling mauls at the end and showed he had an eye for the unexpected in the loose in England's series win in Australia last summer. Sub Backrower Justin Tipuric is a sensational link-man in the loose and tight for Ospreys and Wales and relishes the superb sniping runs of club colleague and compatriot Sub Scrum-Half Rhys Webb.
