Steve Richardson has two bets for Saturday's big clash at the AMI Stadium in Christchurch.
Crusaders v Lions - Saturday, 08:35 Sky Sports 1
While the swing is nowhere near as sensational as some of the UK General Election constituency results that have created a Hung Parliament rather than the predicted landslide Conservative Majority, three days proved a long time on a Lions tour earlier this week with the Crusaders going from three-point underdogs to three-point favourites for Saturday's clash in Christchurch.
And there is good reason, without suggesting that Wednesday's defeat in Auckland to the Blues after last Saturday's uninspiring win over the New Zealand Provincial Barbarians are portents of a disastrous tour.
This is a Crusaders side that have won 14 games out of 14 in pursuit of a first Super Rugby title for nine years and their victories have not always been strolls. This is a team that has learned to cope without legends Richie McCaw and Dan Carter and taken the departures for pastures northern other stalwarts and stars in their stride. Just last weekend, they needed an injury-time drop goal to beat the Highlanders. In Round 12, they stopped the champion Hurricanes from a scoring try straight after jetting out to South Africa. In the first two Rounds, the Crusaders came back from decent arrears to secure successes over the Brumbies and the Highlanders. Both those teams have made the playoffs and the Blues haven't.
The Crusaders starting front-five forwards that run out at Rugby Park are all All Blacks and while the brilliant Kieran Read is injured, Matt Todd and Jordan Taufua should provide the same jackling and ball-carrying threat that the Lions struggled to cope with on Wednesday. There may be no Sonny Bill Williams with his piercing running lines and sublime offloads in opposition but Full-Back Israel Dagg is in the All Blacks squad and Right Wing Seta Tamanivalu was among the unlucky recent caps to miss out while the others in the backline are all versed in the winning ways of Canterbury rugby and have clearly been inspired by Scott Robertson's taking over at the Crusaders helm following Todd Blackadder's departure for Bath.
However, this is a Lions squad that will have been stung by the criticism of their performances so far and the side that starts in red on Saturday is much nearer to a Test team while staying true to Head Coach Warren Gatland's promise that everyone will start.
Expect a huge defensive effort, more of the same in terms of power at the scrum and precision at the lineout from Hooker Jamie George to superb catchers Alun Wyn Jones, George Kruis and Peter O'Mahony and excellent game control from Half-Backs Conor Murray and Owen Farrell. Ben Te'o was excellent in game one and his Centre partner Jonathan Davies has been sensational for Scarlets in their run to the Pro12 crown. Back three of George North, Liam Williams and Stuart Hogg will have been the back three for the Tests of many pre-tour.
This game should be played with Test intensity, with nothing taken for granted or expected, and a bet on fewer than 49 points looks great value.
As said above Seta Tamanivalu was extremely unlucky not to make the cut in the All Blacks 33 against Samoa and the Lions and he is cracking value at 11-4 to score a try. Tamanivalu, who played three Tests off the bench last year including one against Wales, has taken both his move to the Crusaders from the Chiefs ad his switch to the wing from the midfield in his stride. He has scored five tries this Super Rugby season including touchdown in each of his last two outings and opposite number Liam Williams was clumsy under the high ball, picking up a yellow for a second clatter in the air, so may be more wary in defence.
