Steve Richardson previews the three-Test series which kicks off in Auckland on Saturday.
The bare facts and betting show how tough a task the British & Irish Lions face in the three-Test series against the All Blacks which starts in Auckland on Saturday is.
New Zealand are 1-5 to win the series and 4-6 to win 3-0 like they did in 2005 when Sir Clive Woodward was in charge of the Lions tourists. The hosts are back-to-back current World Cup holders - tournaments they won without losing a match.
The All Blacks are on a 46-match winning streak at home and have won 41 on the trot at Eden Park, which hosts the first and third Tests. They have won 16 on the spin at the Westpac in Wellington, venue for the middle game, since June 2003 when England showed why they would go on and win the World Cup that year. That was the last northern hemisphere team victory in New Zealand.
Australia have not won in New Zealand for 20 matches. South Africa have won only two of their last 19 games in New Zealand.
Last year, New Zealand won all six Rugby Championship games and beat Wales 3-0 at home as part of an 18-straight success run that was ended in Chicago by Ireland. They avenged that Windy City loss in Dublin three weeks later
All Blacks Head Coach Steve Hansen never rests on his laurels or gets complacent. He had a mass clear-out of players after the 2011 World Cup. He left out Israel Dagg and Cory Jane from his 2015 World Cup squad in favour of rookies Nehe Milner-Skudder and Waisake Naholo. He had to rebuild after beating the Wallabies in the final at Twickenham with the retirements of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma'a Nonu and more. And has done. There was little hesitation to bring Dagg back into the fold after he found form and fitness again. Milner-Skudder, Naholo and World Cup 2015 top tryscorer Julian Savea are not in this first Test squad.
The Lions won 2-1 in Australia four years ago but would it have been a different story if Kurtley Beale had not slipped in the last minute when attempting a penalty goal for victory in the first Test? And the All Blacks are a whole level above the Wallabies, who seem to have regressed spectacularly since November 2015 with a 3-0 home defeat by England last summer and a stunning loss to Scotland in Sydney last Saturday among the defeats.
The Lions have scored only ten tries in six tour games so far and two have been penalty tries. Three backs tries against an under-strength Chiefs outfit on Tuesday is not proof of a cutting edge.
However, the Lions are worth a bet at 6-5 to find a way to draw or win a Test.
The Lions lost 2-1 in South Africa in 2009, winning the third Test after losing the first two, and Springbok fly-half Morne Steyn only booted the hosts to the decisive 28-25 second Test victory in injury time. The Lions had also rallied from a shocking start to the first Test to lose just 26-21.
The Lions defence and set-piece looks in decent order after a wobbly start to the tour. They shut out the Crusaders, who had won all 15 of their Super Rugby matches this year, and the Chiefs on Tuesday and the sole try conceded in beating the Maori All Blacks last Saturday was after a defensive slip and fumble rather than constructive phase play or a brilliant break,
They have also been well-treated on the injury front since England No. 8 Billy Vunipola withdrew in the days after Saracens lost their Premiership semi-final last month. There were always going to be other Full-Back options to Stuart Hogg and Back-Rower Ross Moriarty was in all likelihood a mere midweek selection.
Like Hansen, Warren Gatland has not been tempted to stick with all the players that have served him so well for Wales and the Lions over the years. Sentimentality has not trumped current form. Centre Jamie Roberts did not make the plane. George North has not made the first Test 23. Tour skipper Sam Warburton is on the bench.
The Sir Clive Woodward-coached 2015 tour was the opposite. There was a reliance on long-in-the-tooth England players.There were several injuries to key players from the moment the Lions touched down. They strolled to victory in all the warm-up games apart from a shock loss to the Maori All Blacks. The loss to injury of captain Brian O'Driscoll in the opening minutes of the first Test was understandable body blow that was always going to be hard to recover from but there is no disguising the fact that the Lions defence and set-piece was shambolic throughout the Test series.
If there is anything to take from four years ago in Australia, it is that three Tests in three weeks take their toll on the host nation's front-five stocks. The All Blacks are currently without their best - arguably the world's best by some way - Hooker Dane Coles and while back-up men Codie Taylor and Nathan Harris are excellent, they have not had the same exposure to international quality. The Lions look like they can reshuffle their Props and Locks with less drop-off in class and composure too.
The All Blacks had a number of absentees in Chicago and lost to Ireland for a first time. Ireland had nearly beaten them in Dublin in 2013 and were sunk by Carter drop goal in Christchurch in 2012. England beat them at Twickenham in 2012 and threatened to turn them over in the first two Tests of their 2014 tour.
With Steve Hansen stunning most observers by leaving out Julian Savea of the New Zealand first Test squad, the best value bet for series top tryscorer is ace All Blacks Full-Back Ben Smith at 9-1.
Smith runs some of the best attacking lines in the business and boasts the speed of a wing, where he often shifts to instinctively when playing in the same team as Israel Dagg and where Hansen has no qualms in starting him or moving him to if injuries occur.
Smith has 27 tries in his 61 Test appearances including two against Wales last June.
Wings Julian Savea and Waisake Naholo are not in Hansen's first matchday squad but surely they are not out of the picture totally and merit small each-way bets at 33-1 and 100-1.
Savea has scored 46 tries in 53 Tests and may be allowed to play for the Hurricanes on Tuesday against the Lions to further his case for a recall.
Naholo, who had a storming game for the Highlanders in their win over the Lions and scored the first try with an unstoppable short-range surge, has six tries in 12 Test outings including three against Wales last June.
With the Lions scoring so few tries on tour and it looking a hard task for them to suddenly cut loose and first Test replacement Scrum-Half Rhys Webb is a value pick at 33-1 to be their series top tryscorer.
Conor Murray is a clear first-choice No.9 but that does not mean that Webb won't get enough gametime to show his trademark eye for an angled break and support run. He has already been hauled in just short of line a couple of times already on tour and it would be no surprise to see these Test matches open up after cagey starts.
After scoring three tries in 2015 Six Nations, Webb missed the 2015 World Cup and most of the 2016 Six Nations with injury but showed he had lost none of his sharpness in New Zealand last summer and scored a try in one of the Tests.
