Expect a high-scoring affair at Eden Park on Saturday morning
Saturday's Third Test, series-decider between the All Blacks and the British & Irish Lions at Eden Park in Auckland is truly a game that gets the head and the heart beating furiously. New Zealand are still 2-7 favourites with bookmakers to triumph, despite defeat in Wellington last week. They have the weight of historical facts and series-possession and territory stats behind them and everything suggests that Head Coach Steve Hansen believes that their attack will see them through as it did in the pressure cooker of a 2015 World Cup final against Australia at Twickenham.
Seven of the starting All Blacks pack played in that 34-17 success as did Scrum-Half Aaron Smith, Fly-Half Beauden Barrett and recalled Left-Wing Julian Savea. New Zealand were in cruise control for the much of the First Test at Eden Park, where the 30-15 victory was a 38th in a row at the venue. And they were dominating the Second Test at 21-9 with 21 minutes left before the burden of Sonny Bill Williams' first-half red card told with two crisp moves for Lions tries and a harsh but by-the-letter-of-the-laws late penalty for Owen Farrell. In both Tests, the All Blacks have had over 60% possession and territory. In 1993, the All Blacks won a series-decider in Auckland 30-13. But the Lions will be emboldened by their 23-21 win at the Westpac last Saturday to be the first international side to win on Kiwi territory for nearly eight years, that there is no Williams at Inside Centre because of his four-week suspension or Ben Smith, Waisake Naholo and Ryan Crotty because of injury and that they have won the third Test on their last two tours.
Head Coach Warren Gatland clearly doesn't think they are close to running out of gas or he would not have named the same matchday 23 as at the Westpac. Amazingly Lock Alun Wyn Jones will have been involved in the last nine Lions Tests when he starts. These are a 23 proven Northern Hemisphere club and Six Nations-winners, who will be stirred up to achieve sporting immortality like Lions predecessors in 1971 by improving their discipline, particularly at the breakdown, minimising handling errors and exposing any holes in the wider New Zealand defence caused by their reshuffled Midfield and Back Three. Tries for Scrum-Halves Conor Murray and Rhys Webb in the series so far hint at gaps close to the fringes of rucks.
A ding-dong draw, much like the final midweek match against the Hurricanes, would not stun either, even though it is a 33-1 shot. The bets to have, however, are New Zealand to score 28 or more points and the match to contain 47 or more points. The rain and wind which are forecast were a feature of the first two Tests and it did not stop 45 points being racked up both times. The All Blacks scored 30 at Eden Park in the First Test for a seventh outing in 11 since their 2011 World Cup final win over France. And they have scored 29 on another occasion too. Beauden Barrett is unlikely to miss as many kicks at goals as he did in Wellington, and if he does duff a couple then brother Jordie now at Full-Back can step up. The Westpac defeat was a game where the bounce of the ball seemed to subtly go against the All Blacks too. Savea, with 46 tries in 53 Tests, and Dagg are proven finishers on the Wing. And while Jordie is a rookie making his first All Blacks start, he has enjoyed a stellar debut Super Rugby season and ran the game for the Hurricanes against the Lions at Fly-Half. Beauden has had a quiet but effective series so far. The intensity of this match should bring out the full range of his skills. One of his 20 Test tries came in the 2015 World Cup final and he certainly knows how to bring new Inside Centre Ngani Laumape, Savea and Jordie into the game blindfold as a fellow Hurricane.
The Lions can play their part on the scoreboard too and will surely have to if they are to win. Owen Farrell finally seems to be in a kicking groove on this tour and the two tries they scored in Wellington came after cohesive, precise phase play that was missing in all previous matches on tour. The two tries they scored in the first Test were testament to their willingness to take a chance with ball in hand and to their perseverance when the cause is lost.
New Zealand captain and No. 8 Kieran Read runs out at Eden Park on Saturday for his 100th cap and he is worth backing to score a 22nd international try at 6-1. Read has done everything but score a try this series, breaking the gainline regularly with the ball in hand, diving in vain to catch cross-kicks and to touch down grubber kicks and setting-up teammates with outrageous offloads. He will have taken last week's Wellington defeat to heart and will be determined to be one of the men involved in forward rumbles and testing the strength of the Lions channel defence of Farrell and Johnny Sexton as well as sneaking out wide for overlaps and kicks.
Jonathan Davies is another big price Anytime Tryscorer at 7-1. The Lions Outside Centre has been their best attacking outlet all tour with his cutting running lines even though he is yet to cross and he should enjoy the space that a new All Blacks Midfield partnership of Laumape and Anton Lienart-Brown is likely to afford. One of Davies's 13 Test tries came for Wales against New Zealand in Wellington last year when the All Blacks played a 10-12-13 of Aaron Cruden, Ryan Crotty and Malakai Fekitoa.
