Steve Richardson has three bets for Saturday's huge Calcutta Cup clash at Twickenham.
England v Scotland - Saturday 16:00, ITV
Eddie Jones loves to play games with the media but is he bluffing over the extent of Owen Farrell's leg injury?
That is the key question for punters before the crunch Calcutta Cup clash at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon.
If Thursday's training ground bang is just a bump then England should win the showdown with the something to spare that an 11-point handicap suggests, equal New Zealand's Test-winning streak of 17 and give themselves a shot at breaking the record and landing back-to-back Grand Slams in Dublin next weekend.
If the Inside Centre is sidelined then Scotland should stay within 13 points and they actually have a real shout at beating the Auld Enemy in England for a first time since 1983 to claim the Triple Crown and start dreaming of their own hard-earned, stunning title success.
Dylan Hartley is England's captain but Farrell is the on-pitch general and far more influential than just the main means of keeping the scoreboard moving with his kicks at goal. He directs play more than Fly-Half George Ford, carries the ball up to contact, makes huge hits in defence and floats an irresistible pass as exemplified by Elliot Daly's try in Cardiff. Likely stand-in Ben Te'o offers two of these facets at best and weakens the effectiveness of Ford.
At a day's notice, Farrell's absence will be hard to cover in terms of an England gameplan, especially given that they have not fired fully yet this tournament, and it will give a huge filip to Scotland, who fully deserved their wins over Ireland and Wales and were counted-out on their feet, but not floored, in Paris.
Scotland +6 on the First-Half Handicap and Scotland-England in the HT/FT market are two bets to strike.
Scotland's success this tournament has been built on the phenomenal tackle-rates of locks Jonny and Richie Gray and the swift distribution of ball won from the breakdown and surprise turnovers by sources such as Inside Centre Alex Dunbar. It has helped a quicksilver backline to thrive and also drawn plenty of kickable penalties.
The intensity of Scotland's approach could surprise an England outfit that have taken their time to come to terms with France's power and Italy's offside line shenanigans in their previous two home games. It really shouldn't. Last year at Murrayfield, England led 7-6 at half-time with Scotland squandering plenty of opportunities for points. Two years ago Scotland led 13-10 at Twickenham before being trampled 25-13.
After being criticised for their first-half scrummaging against Ireland, Scotland were solid against France. There could well be a similar reaction at Twickenham to being put under pressure in the early exchanges at the set-piece by Wales a fortnight ago.
Second-half surges have become a trademark of Jones's England. They have won the second-half in 15 of the 16 matches he has coached them in and another one looks on the cards with a phenomenal set of replacements - or finishers as they are now called - including the gainline-busting Vunipola brothers.
Scotland may have streaked clear of Wales a fortnight ago but they were ground down after the break by France and were in danger of subsiding against Ireland before two late penalties. England's set-piece and breakdown presence is only going to be strengthened by the arrivals on the pitch of the Vunipola brothers, Jamie George and Tom Wood. Fit-again Utility Back Anthony Watson is as good as they get in attack as well as defence.
Hidden attention to detail is another signature tune of Jones's England tenure. After waxing lyrical about Jack Nowell's attributes as a finisher and a defender earlier in the tournament, tries in each of the last two England-Scotland meetings wvill be high on the reasons for his recall for Jonny May on the Right Wing. Nowell scooted in for two tries in the second half against Italy a fortnight ago and he deserves backing to make it 12 tries in 22 international outings as he offers far more than a threat down the flank.
