oddschecker expert Graham Ruthven gives his predictions for the French Open Women's Final 2022.
Iga Swiatek (1) v Coco Gauff (18)
Swiatek needed just 64 minutes to see off Daria Kasatkina in a dominant 6-2, 6-1 semi-final victory, highlighting the level the world number one is operating at right now. Despite dropping just one set in four matches before the semi-final stage, there was a sense that Swiatek was playing within herself. However, her performance against Kasatkina changed this.
Looking closely at the statistics of Swiatek’s semi-final victory, it’s notable that she dropped just two points behind her first serve in the opening set and dropped just four points in total on serve in the second set. Indeed, the 21-year-old’s serving was highly effective and gave her the momentum in the majority of the points she played when having the first shot.
Not only this, Swiatek was highly aggressive when returning, frequently stepping inside the baseline to attack second serves. The Pole deprived her opponent of any breathing room and Gauff must be prepared to face the same in the final. Swiatek won five of her 10 break points and won 30 of 59 total points in return games.
Gauff started off erratically in her semi-final against Martina Trevisan - there were five successive breaks of serve in the opening set - but the American teenager found her composure and sharpened her decision-making process by the second set. Ultimately, it was a performance that demonstrated why so many predict Gauff will win several Grand Slam titles.
The head-to-head record suggests Swiatek will have the edge with the Pole winning both matches she has played against Gauff. The most recent of those two past encounters came at the Miami Open earlier this year when beat Gauff 6-3, 6-1 in the round of 16. That should give Swiatek the confidence that she is above the rest of the field, including her French Open final opponent.
However, Gauff has beaten big name players in big matches before. The teenager beat Ash Barty at the 2021 Italian Open and Naomi Osaka in the third round of the 2020 Australian Open. Gauff has done a better job of keeping cool when it matters most over the last two weeks and she will need to handle some stressful situations against the current best player in the world.
If Swiatek is to be beaten, it might be by a player of Gauff’s profile - someone who can chase down shots that would be winners against less mobile opponents and someone who can stick with the world number one from the baseline. However, Swiatek is the dominant force in women’s tennis right now and should get the job done on Court Philippe Chatrier on Saturday. She will have too much for Gauff to handle.
