2023 French Open preview and predictions in what looks like a very open bottom half of the draw.
With Rafael Nadal missing Roland Garros for the first time since 2004 through injury, this year’s tournament sees Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic head the market at 8/5 and 9/4 respectively.
Unfortunately for those two players they have both landed in the top half of the draw setting up a possible semi-final meeting. Alongside them in the top half is world number five and 2021 finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas.
For those reasons the bottom half of the draw, featuring the other top four seeds in Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud, appeals more to me than trying to predict which player will come through the top half.
Medvedev is famously not keen on the clay court season, admitting in April that “his shots are too flat on clay”. He did, however, win the title in Rome last week – his first ATP 1000 tournament victory on the red dirt.
I think the market has overreacted to that win though making him the 7/4 fourth quarter favourite, which provides an opportunity to find better value elsewhere in the Russian’s section of the draw.
I believe that if this draw was made prior to that Rome win, Jannik Sinner would have been the favourite to make it through the fourth quarter over Medvedev and now sits at 11/4. The 21 year old Italian has been suffering from thigh and back problems caused by the volume of matches he’s played so far in 2023.
For that reason I wouldn’t put too much importance on his recent results in Barcelona (where he retired at the quarter-final stage) or in Rome as for him it’s all about arriving at Roland Garros in the best condition for the second Slam of the year.
He has never beaten Medvedev on the tour but all of their six meetings have been on outdoor or indoor hard courts, where the Russian is a completely different proposition. So if the seedings do go to form and these two end up meeting at the quarter-final stage I’d have no hesitation backing the former quarter-finalist Sinner to come out on top.
In the third quarter Holger Rune heads the market at 5/4 and is the fourth favourite to win the tournament outright at 9/1.
The young Dane has had an electric 2023 season so far particularly on the clay, winning the title in Munich and making the final in Rome and Monte-Carlo. In that time he’s beaten Medvedev, Djokovic and Casper Ruud.
That run of results just shows the vast improvement in his clay court game since losing to Ruud in the quarter final last year at Roland Garros.
After losing the final against Medvedev last week though, Rune looked tired so I do wonder how much recent results have taken it out of him. Over five sets in a Grand Slam I still think he has work to do in terms of his physicality to make the break through and think the market has over priced him for this tournament.
Instead, I will be backing the aforementioned Ruud to make it out of this quarter at 10/3 and will take the 16/1 e/w price on him winning the tournament too.
Whist the Norwegian did lose for the first time against Rune in Rome last week, he holds a 4-1 head to head record and beat the Dane in Paris last year as mentioned above. Losing to Nadal in the final in 2022 would have been a huge learning experience for Ruud and whilst I expect Alcaraz or Djokovic to win in 2023 I’m happy to take Ruud at 16/1 e/w to match that feat with a puncher’s chance in the final.
