Sam Eaton from oddschecker has all the data to back up his seven betting selections for this week’s Eurovision Song Contest.
Eurovision 2025
The Eurovision Song Contest is one of the easiest events to bet on. That might sound like an outlandish statement, but hopefully, it becomes clearer as you read on.
The key reason is data. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available data, rather than just backing your favourite song or home country, you significantly increase your chances of making a profitable bet.
Online Eurovision prediction polls often attract over 300,000 votes, largely from fans who are likely to contribute to the Televote. Since 2015, the winner of Eurovision has finished in the top two of the biggest Eurovision poll (hosted on Eurovisionworld) in nine out of nine contests, topping the poll seven times.
Similarly, since 2015, the most bet-on country through oddschecker in the lead-up to Eurovision has gone on to win six out of nine times. These data points include Eurovision 2024, which was a bit of an anomaly due to the late disqualification of the Netherlands.
Eurovision Betting
| Year | Most Bet-On Country | Eurovision Poll Winner | Eurovision Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Sweden | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2016 | Russia | Russia (Ukraine 2nd) | Ukraine |
| 2017 | Portugal | Portugal | Portugal |
| 2018 | Israel | Israel | Israel |
| 2019 | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands |
| 2021 | Switzerland | Italy | Italy |
| 2022 | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine |
| 2023 | Sweden | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2024 | Netherlands (Switzerland 3rd) | Croatia (Switzerland 2nd) | Switzerland |
Eurovision Tips 2025
Let's get into my betting tips for Eurovision 2025, Sweden tops both the Eurovisionworld poll and oddschecker’s betting market.
Historically, when a country has led in both categories, they’ve gone on to win six out of seven times. Based on this trend, the smart money is on Sweden.
Austria currently sits second in both the polls and the betting. However, unless their odds drift to around 5/1, there’s no clear betting value (even for an each-way hedge).
However, one outsider worth considering for an each-way bet is Albania. They're third in the online poll, in the top 10 of the betting market, and third in the INFE poll.
This is essentially a bet on a 3rd/4th-place finish - so ensure you use a bookmaker through oddschecker offering each-way terms.
Eurovision Predictions
Looking past the outright winner, I’ve got another play on outright fancy Albania as part of three selections in the Top 10 market.
Malta are in the Top 10 of the Eurovisionworld poll, close to Top 10 in the betting, and currently 4th in the INFE poll.
While their Top 10 odds have shortened, there's still value in a top 10 bet on Estonia. They rank in the top eight of both the online poll and the betting.
Finally, let’s look to the different vote winner markets. A reminder that fans from all participating countries can vote over the phone, text or via the Eurovision app, but people are unable to select their own country.
The public votes make up 50% of the total vote, with the other half determined by a professional jury in each participating country.
Austria are quite rightly the favourites to win the Jury vote; however, I’m going to have a flutter on France at 3/1. The song has been very well received within the industry, and has some chance of knocking Austria off the top sport in the Jury vote.
Estonia may perform poorly with the Jury, but they’re likely to be in the top three of the Televote, making this an interesting in-play opportunity if the odds drift.
