Eurovision Semi‑Final One Tips

Betting on the semi‑finals has lost some of its sparkle in recent years due to fewer countries taking part, which in turn makes qualification a little more straightforward. In Semi‑Final One, 15 countries compete for 10 qualification spots.

It’s also worth noting a key change to the voting format: the semi‑finals now use a 50/50 split between jury and televote, which has implications for a few borderline entries.

Likely Qualifiers

There is already a strong group of countries that look close to certainties to progress:

  • Sweden
  • Israel
  • Greece
  • Finland

Strong Chances (Heavy Odds‑On)

A second group aren’t quite as nailed on, but remain heavy favourites and should still qualify comfortably:

  • Croatia
  • Serbia
  • Moldova

The Remaining Places

That leaves three qualification spots up for grabs among:

  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Montenegro
  • Portugal
  • Estonia
  • San Marino
  • Georgia

Georgia and San Marino both have very poor qualification records, limited betting support, and weak polling data. As a result, they sit firmly in the unlikely to qualify category. Unfortunately, the odds reflect this, so there’s little betting value.

Removing those two leaves five countries battling for three places.

Narrowing the Field

It’s difficult to make a strong case for Montenegro or Belgium, neither of whom benefit from a favourable running order. San Marino can also be discounted for similar reasons.

This narrows the realistic contenders down to:

  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Estonia
  • Portugal

None of these have been severely hurt by the running order.

Poland should benefit most from the re‑introduction of the televote and is expected to do enough to qualify.

Both Portugal and Estonia look weak entries overall. If either were to qualify, they would be strong candidates to finish last in the final. Portugal, in particular, is likely to struggle under the televote element, making them my preferred selection not to qualify.

Predicted Eurovision Semi‑Final One Qualifiers

  • Sweden
  • Israel
  • Greece
  • Finland
  • Croatia
  • Serbia
  • Moldova
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Estonia

Betting Tips