Eurovision 2026 Final Tips

If you’ve been following along with our Eurovision tips this year, you should be sitting in a very strong position. We landed six out of eight tips in the semi-finals and correctly predicted 18 of the 20 qualifiers.

The betting odds for the Grand Final have seen a significant shake-up this week. Australia has surged to become the second favourites, while Greece, Denmark, and France have surprisingly fallen out of the spotlight.

I published my initial Eurovision Final tips before the semi-finals on Monday. For context, here is a recap of the outright bets I've already suggested:

  • Finland to win @ 5/4 - 5pts
  • Greece to win @ 6/1 each-way (4 places) - 1.25pts each-way
  • Israel to win @ 22/1 - 0.5pts each-way (4 places)
  • United Kingdom to finish last @ 5/2 - 1pt
  • Estonia to finish last @ 25/1 - 0.5pt

The staking plan might look a little unorthodox, but the math is simple: if Finland wins, we secure 2.75pts in profit; if Greece wins, we’re 3pts in profit; and if Israel pulls off an upset, we land 5.7pts in profit. It’s hard to see Greece or Israel missing out on the top four, so hopefully, that profit margin swells with a placing or two.

Unfortunately, as we feared might happen, Estonia failed to qualify, so we are already 0.5pts down. However, eagle-eyed bettors might have noticed I flagged Belgium to finish last on my Twitter at 25/1. They have now shortened to 7/1, making it a market we’ll likely revisit.

As for the rest of our portfolio: Finland are now odds-on, Greece have drifted to 11/1, Israel have shortened to 12/1, and the UK are now the 13/8 favourites to finish dead last.

Eurovision Final Tips: Trust the Data

My selections are based entirely on historical data, which genuinely makes Eurovision one of the most predictable and easiest events to bet on.

The first port of call is the Eurovisionworld online poll. With over 167k votes cast, it is an incredibly reliable indicator:

  • The fan poll has correctly placed the winner at #1 in 7 of the last 10 contested years.
  • Since 2015, the eventual Eurovision winner has placed in the top three of this poll every single year.

The poll remains open until voting starts, so things can shift, but here is the current top 10:

  1. Finland – 19% (32,245 votes)
  2. Denmark – 9% (15,935 votes)
  3. Greece – 6% (9,750 votes)
  4. Australia – 5% (8,362 votes)
  5. France – 5% (8,145 votes)
  6. Romania – 5% (7,687 votes)
  7. Sweden – 4% (7,522 votes)
  8. Cyprus – 4% (7,298 votes)
  9. Israel – 4% (6,377 votes)
  10. Moldova – 4% (6,209 votes)

Historically speaking, this data suggests only Finland, Denmark, and Greece have a legitimate shot at the crown. There’s a slim chance Australia overtakes Greece for that third spot, but it's worth noting an incredible stat: since 2015, no country has commanded 17% or more of the poll vote and failed to win. Finland currently sits at 19%.

Furthermore, since 2015, there have only been two occasions where a country ranked in the top three of the poll failed to finish in the top ten on the night.

Our other crucial data source is oddschecker’s own user data, which tracks interactions and betting volume from the start of the year leading up to Eurovision week. It's another historically rock-solid metric:

  • Oddschecker data correctly predicted the winner in 6 of the last 10 contested years.
  • The eventual winner has been in the top three most-backed countries on oddschecker in 8 of the last 10 contested years.

Here is the current most-backed order:

  1. Finland – 17%
  2. Greece – 13%
  3. Israel – 8%
  4. Cyprus – 6%
  5. Romania – 6%
  6. Denmark – 5%
  7. France – 5%
  8. Australia – 5%
  9. UK – 5%
  10. Sweden – 4%

Both vital data sources point squarely toward Finland and Greece, validating my primary outright bets.

Should we be worried about the aggressive odds movement for Australia? Yes. However, they have a notoriously poor record in the televote and are currently priced at 50/1 just to win the public vote. I'll flag this now: Australia will likely be the live betting favourites by the halfway point of the jury voting, but I simply do not believe they have the public support required to hold on and win.

2026 Eurovision Running Order Stats

Below is the confirmed Grand Final running order, mapped alongside the number of historical winners produced from that exact slot (1998–2025, excluding 2020).

Please see my Twitter/X account for this tweet detailing running order and historical winners: @sameaton12

Eurovision Grand Final Prop Bets

Based on the running order data and historical averages, there is great value to be found outside the outright winner market. Here are the Grand Final prop bets I’m locking in:

  • Tip: Sweden Top 10 Finish @ 9/4 (1pt)
  • Tip: Germany to finish last @ 13/2 (1pt)
  • Tip: Germany 23rd or worse @ 11/10 (2pt - bet365)
  • Tip: Malta 13th or worse @ 4/9 (2pt - bet365)
  • Tip: Sweden 12th or Better @ 6/4 (3pt - bet365)