Sofabet's Daniel Gould picks out his best bet for this weekend's X Factor final.
We go into this weekend's X Factor final on the back of a highly unpredictable few weeks. Producers have alternately blown hot and cold on each of the three finalists. Matt Terry was the golden boy of week 7 with his rendition of 'Writing's On The Wall'. Saara Aalto won the most praise for her week 8 'Winner Takes It All', and got the coveted pimp slot for her second song. In week 9, that luxury - and the biggest hype - was given to 5 After Midnight.
As Dermot has relished in telling us, all remaining three acts have now topped the vote, and fallen into the bottom two. Saara, who only just go through the first few weeks, comes into the final with the most apparent momentum. 5am survived the quarter-final singoff, and Matt Terry the semi-final singoff. It seems likely that Saara topped the week 8 vote and we know she was top two at least in week 9.
She's the deserving 8/13 favourite after Matt Terry's mauling at the hands of Simon Cowell in the semi-final. Matt had long seemed the likely winner, but last week Cowell seemed to go further than necessary in damaging his chances, calling him "bland", "predictable", and most memorably, "like a sandwich without butter". It's no wonder the former favourite fell into the bottom two.
I doubt you'll hear anything so harsh in the final, when judges comments are usually meant to maintain a feelgood atmosphere. Of more importance - for those trying to gain clues on both Saturday and Sunday nights - will be the staging. You don't want anything too crazy and distracting in a performance; but at the same time anything downbeat has to be done tastefully rather than feel like a karaoke number.
Five After Midnight come into the final as outsiders despite getting the most positive treatment last week. Their main problem is that only one of the trio - front man Kieran - can sustain a decent solo effort. The backing track has to hide the weaknesses of the other two boyband members - Nathan and Jordan. Still, the move from the smaller studio - where the previous rounds took place - to the larger Wembley Arena, may suit their all-dancing productions.
They are reportedly duetting with Louisa Johnson and Clean Bandit on this year's #5 hit, 'Tears'. Matt Terry will allegedly team up with his own mentor Nicole Scherzinger, who has performed the same duty before with the likes of Jahmene Douglas and Sam Bailey. Meanwhile, Saara Alto's duet partner is apparently Adam Lambert, and their rumoured song is 'Bohemain Rhapsody'. That promises to be very theatrical, and Saara's supporters should be hoping it's not too over-the-top.
After the last few weeks, nothing seems predictable before this year's final. As mentioned, Saara has momentum with her, and there are a few reasons why her winning would be good for the franchise. Firstly, it encourages other quality foreign acts to enter, broadening the talent pool; and secondly, it shows that being in the first and second week singoff is no barrier to success. Producers could embrace the feelgood narrative of her comeback from early unpopularity, and the way the British public have taken her to their hearts.
Once again, a close watch of the show itself will be necessary before committing decent stakes, but a Saara-Matt 1-2 now looks the most likely result to me, and you can get 11/8 with Skybet.
