How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Thursday Night Football clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. 

Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 6.39pts in profit for this season so far.

 

Bet 1: Cam Skattebo (Giants) - Over 2.5 Receptions - 1pt

11/10 widely available at the time of publishing.

This feels a sensible number for a back who’s become a regular outlet in the Giants’ passing game.

Skattebo has been on the field for most of the obvious passing downs, with his routes and targets trending up over the last couple of weeks as the coaches lean into screens, swings and quick check-downs.

Against Philadelphia’s strong pass rush, the ball usually has to come out fast — exactly the kind of game where running backs nick a few easy catches in space.

Add in a likely catch-up script with New York as underdogs and there should be enough dropbacks for Skattebo to see multiple looks. Two early dump-offs put you on the doorstep; one more in the second half gets it home.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 62.94%, so the odds of 11/10 available gives us a Positive EV of 35.32% on this play. 

We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 10/11. 

Bet 2: Dallas Goedert (Eagles) - Anytime TD - 1pt

14/5 Available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet at the time of publishing.

Goedert’s role has ramped up lately, with steady targets and multiple red-zone looks over the past couple of weeks.

In this offence he’s a classic “designed” scorer: RPOs, play-action leaks and tight red-zone concepts that isolate him on a linebacker or safety.

The Giants’ attention naturally drifts to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside, which often leaves the middle of the field open—prime territory for a quick pop pass to the tight end near the goal line.

Add in Philadelphia’s ability to live in the red zone and Goedert’s snap rate never dipping, and he’s right in the frame to find the endzone.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 39.19%, so the odds of 14/5 available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet gives us a Positive EV of 48.92% on this play. 

We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/2.

Bet 3: Theo Johnson (Giants) - Anytime TD - 0.5pts

9/2 Available with Betfred at the time of publishing, 4/1 widely available.

Theo Johnson heads into Week 6 in great form, with three touchdowns in his last two games — one against the Chargers in Week 4 and two more versus the Saints in Week 5.

The rookie tight end has become a clear red-zone favourite for quarterback Jaxson Dart, posting 15 catches for 99 yards and three scores across the opening stretch of the season.

With the Giants short at wide receiver — Darius Slayton ruled out and Malik Nabers still recovering — Johnson’s role as a reliable target underneath and in tight spaces looks even more important.

He’s already seen the majority of tight end targets in this offence, and his size makes him a natural option near the goal line.

The Eagles have been strong defensively, but they have shown occasional vulnerability to tight ends, giving up a touchdown to the position already this season.

Playing at home, expect New York to use play-action and short-yardage designs to get Johnson free again in scoring range.

Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 30.48%, so the odds of 9/2 available with Betfred gives us a Positive EV of 67.64% on this play. 

We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 4/1.

Bet Builder Tip (0.25pts): Cam Skattebo (Over 2.5 Receptions), Dallas Goedert (Anytime Touchdown), and Theo Johnson (Anytime Touchdown). 30/1 with Paddy Power.