We’ve picked out three bets from our Positive Expected Value tool for tonight’s Monday Night Football action, with two games on the slate.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the two matches taking place on Monday night: Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 5.44pts in profit for this season so far.
Bet 1: DJ Moore - Over 3.5 Receptions vs Commanders - 4/5 - 1pt
4/5 Available with William Hill at the time of publishing.
DJ Moore’s usage is steady enough that four catches is a fair ask.
He’s on 16 receptions so far this season with a ~16% target share, and Chicago typically builds in quick-game throws to get him involved early.
Washington’s defence under Dan Quinn has been strong against the run, but local previews still flag a relative passing edge for Chicago in this matchup — which points to Moore seeing a solid dose of short and intermediate targets.
If the Bears chase the game at any point, that only adds to the attempts and Moore’s volume.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70.4%, so the odds of 4/5 with available William Hill gives us a Positive EV of 26.72% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 8/11.
Bet 2: Josh Palmer — Over 18.5 Receiving Yards vs Falcons - 20/21 - 1pt
20/21 Available with Betfred at the time of publishing.
Palmer’s moved into a meaningful role for Buffalo: 12 receptions for 174 yards so far (14.5 yards per catch), with ~48% offensive snap share and regular downfield usage (~11.6-yard aDOT; ~42 air yards per game).
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That profile means one normal catch can clear this number, and two routine completions almost certainly do.
Against a Falcons unit that squeezes the run and keeps games structured, the Bills should still dial up a couple of intermediate shots to their ancillary receivers — Palmer’s mix of snaps, routes and air yards makes him the right kind of low-line over.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69.78%, so the odds of 20/21 with available Betfred gives us a Positive EV of 36.07% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/6.
Bet 3: Dalton Kincaid — Anytime TD vs Falcons - 13/5 - 1pt
13/5 Available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet at the time of publishing.
Kincaid has been a key finisher for Buffalo, with 3 touchdowns already and a growing slice of the red-zone looks.
The Bills’ injury report is light on offensive absences, and they’ll need their TE mismatch against an Atlanta defence that has been excellent overall but has still conceded catches to tight ends underneath.
In what projects as a tight, low-mistake game, Kincaid’s chemistry with Josh Allen near the stripe gives him multiple routes to a score — from play-action inside the 10 to a seam in the high red zone.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 39.34%, so the odds of 13/5 with available BetMGM and Virgin Bet gives us a Positive EV of 41.62% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 5/2.
