The 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Paycor Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bengals. We've got three betting tips and an 8/1 bet builder for it.
The Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals have been on a slide in recent weeks, losing four games in a row heading into this clash against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, are in fine form and are 4-1 this season so far. They are heavy betting favourites at 2/5 to get the victoy over the Bengals.
In this article, we have picked out our three best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool and combined them all into an 8/1 bet builder for TNF.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Thursday Night Football match between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 5.44pts in profit for this season so far.
Bet 1: Andrei Iosivas — Over 1.5 Receptions vs Steelers - 1pt
Best odds available at the time of publishing: 9/10 Virgin Bet/BetMGM - 20/23 Betfred - 4/5 Sky Bet and Paddy Power
Andrei Iosivas is on the field enough that two catches is very attainable: he’s logged ~81% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps this season, giving him steady route volume even as a tertiary option.
With both Mike Gesicki (IR) and Tanner Hudson (concussion) out, the Bengals are thinner at tight end and more likely to lean into 3-WR looks, which keeps Iosivas active on quick slants, outs and play-action crossers.
The matchup is friendly for underneath targets: Pittsburgh is allowing ~270 passing yards per game, and if the Steelers’ front dictates shorter drops, Cincinnati’s ancillary receivers tend to hoover up easy completions.
In a must-have divisional game where volume should be there for Joe Flacco, two routine grabs is a fair expectation.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73.5%, so the odds of 4/5 with available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet gives us a Positive EV of 39.65% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 4/6.
Bet 2: Aaron Rodgers — Over 1.5 Rushing Yards vs Bengals - 1pt
Best odds available at the time of publishing: 5/4 bet365 - 11/10 Sky Bet & Paddy Power
This is the classic “two-yard scramble” prop. Even at 41, Rodgers still tucks it a couple of times per game—his 2025 log shows positive rushing yards in multiple outings, including 8 yards vs. Minnesota and 1–3 carry games elsewhere.
Against Cincinnati, whose top edge Trey Hendrickson is questionable (hip), there’s a realistic path to one or two pocket escapes clearing this tiny number.
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Game script also helps: in a tight, lower-total AFC North spot, moving the chains with a scramble on 3rd-and-medium is firmly in play.
You’re not betting on designed runs—just one crease when coverage pushes Rodgers off his spot.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70.03%, so the odds of 5/4 with available with bet365 gives us a Positive EV of 47.06% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 10/11.
Bet 3: DK Metcalf — Anytime TD vs Bengals - 1pt
Best odds available at the time of publishing: 6/4 Sky Bet & Paddy Power
Metcalf has settled in as Rodgers’ primary strike option: 19 catches, 356 yards, 4 TDs through four games, with clear red-zone trust (back-shoulders/fades) and explosive-play upside.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been comfortable taking their shots when the box is stacked, and Metcalf’s 2025 usage reflects that high-leverage role.
The Bengals have leaked WR production in spots this season and could be without Hendrickson, their best pass-rush finisher — a swing factor that buys Rodgers that extra beat for a contested-catch look.
In a divisional game likely decided by a handful of big moments, Metcalf’s red-zone/vertical profile is exactly the type that cashes.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 49.39%, so the odds of 6/4 with available with Sky Bet and Paddy Power gives us a Positive EV of 23.48% on this play.
We suggest playing this bet no lower than odds of 11/8.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Bet Builder Tip
Our 8/1 bet builder tip for the Bengals vs Steelers match combines the three single bets we've tipped up in this article: Iosivas over 1.5 receptions, Rogers over 1.5 rushing yards, and DK Metcalf anytime touchdown.
The bet builder is best priced at 8/1 with Paddy Power and bet365. We recommend playing 0.5pts on the bet builder.
