We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out three of the highest value plays for the Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our three best bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Week 8 Monday Night Football match up between the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Commanders.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 6.45pts in profit for this season so far.
Tip 1: Juju Smith-Schuster - Over 12.5 Receiving Yards - 1pt
Over 12.5 receiving yards available with Sky & Paddy at time of publishing. Over 14.5 next best with Betfred.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is poised to eclipse this low receiving yards threshold in a Chiefs offense that's increasingly pass-reliant due to ongoing run-game inefficiencies, where he's averaged 37.1 yards per game across seven appearances with an efficient 11.8 yards per catch.
Facing a Commanders secondary that's allowed 255 passing yards per game and ranks middling overall (18th in total yards conceded at 364.3 per contest), Smith-Schuster's role as a reliable slot option for Patrick Mahomes should yield at least a couple of short-to-intermediate targets, especially with full practice participation confirming no lingering injury concerns.
If Kansas City exploits Washington's vulnerabilities through sustained drives or quick-strike plays, even minimal involvement could push him well over 12.5 yards, building on his consistent production in most games this season.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79.9%, so the odds of 5/6 with Sky Bet & Paddy Power gives us a Positive EV of 46.48% on this play.
Tip 2: Marcus Mariota - Under 30.5 Passing Attempts - 1pt
10/11 best price available with BetMGM and Virgin Bet.
Marcus Mariota steps in for the injured Jayden Daniels in a Commanders scheme that's pivoted to a run-first identity under Kliff Kingsbury, evidenced by his low-volume starts averaging around 19-21 attempts and a recent outing where Washington racked up 201 rushing yards to control the clock.
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Against the Chiefs' elite defense—ranked third in points allowed at 17.7 per game and stout in forcing conservative play-calling—Mariota's game-manager role minimizes high-attempt scenarios, particularly with strong ground support from a unit ranked fifth in rushing success rate.
Even if trailing as underdogs prompts some late passes, the overall script favors ground-and-pound to limit Mahomes' opportunities, keeping Mariota's attempts suppressed below 30.5 as seen in his 58 total throws across limited action this year.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 68.57%, so the odds of 10/11 with BetMGM & Virgin Bet gives us a Positive EV of 31.65% on this play.
Tip 3: Marquise Brown - Anytime Touchdown - 0.5pts
10/3 best odds and widely available. Play no lower than 11/4.
Marquise Brown has emerged as a prime red-zone weapon in Kansas City's aerial attack, notching four touchdowns in seven games—including a multi-score performance recently—while benefiting from the team's 248 passing attempts amid a struggling run block (31st in win rate).
The Commanders' defense, surrendering 1,788 passing yards through seven weeks and allowing splash plays downfield, sets up well for Brown's speed and deep-threat capabilities alongside Mahomes' precision.
With the Chiefs trending toward more aggressive passing to compensate for ground-game woes, Brown's consistent scoring streak and red-zone targets make him a strong candidate to find the end zone anytime, especially in a matchup projecting high totals around 48 points.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 39.56%, so the odds of 10/3 available on Oddschecker gives us a whopping Positive EV of 78.02% on this play.
