We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for the NFL Week 9 matchups.
Tip 1: Davante Adams - Anytime TD vs Rams - 2pts
Davante Adams, recently with the Rams after a March 2025 trade from the Jets, has 7 receiving TDs in 8 games, averaging 1.1 per game on 55 targets.
Facing the Saints, who rank 24th against WRs (allowing 1.6 TDs per game), Adams' red-zone role (3 TDs in last 4 games) positions him well, especially with Rams QB Matthew Stafford's 18 TD passes this season.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 72.24%, so the odds of 10/11 available gives us a Positive EV of 37.98% on this play.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Tip 2: Jake Ferguson - Anytime TD vs Cardinals - 1pt
Jake Ferguson, Dallas' TE, has 5 TDs in 8 games, tying for third among TEs, with a 62% catch rate on 42 targets.
The Cardinals, conceding 1.1 TDs per game to TEs (28th-ranked), are vulnerable to Ferguson's route-running, as seen in his 3-TD game vs. Green Bay.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 52.82%, so the odds of 7/5 available gives us a Positive EV of 26.77% on this play.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Tip 3: George Pickens - Anytime TD vs Cardinals
George Pickens, traded to Dallas in May 2025, has 6 TDs in 8 games, with 43 catches for 685 yards.
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Against the Cardinals (1.4 TDs allowed per game to WRs), Pickens' deep-threat ability (16.0 yards per catch) shines, per StatMuse and PFF data.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 50.12%, so the odds of 11/8 available gives us a Positive EV of 19.03% on this play.
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Tip 4: Tee Higgins - Anytime TD vs Bears - 1pt
Tee Higgins of the Bengals has 5 TDs in 7 games, with 18 catches for 256 yards despite a hamstring issue.
The Bears allow 1.3 receiving TDs per game (22nd), making Higgins a strong candidate in a game where Cincinnati's offense averages 2.4 TDs.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 48.91%, so the odds of 6/4 available gives us a Positive EV of 29.61% on this play.
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Tip 5: Kayshon Boutte - Anytime TD vs Atlanta Falcons
Kayshon Boutte, emerging for the Patriots, has 4 TDs in 8 games, with a 39-yard score in Week 8.
The Falcons yield 1.5 TDs per game to WRs (26th), per ESPN.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 41.33%, so the odds of 9/4 available gives us a Positive EV of 34.32% on this play.
