Public Betting Splits: What Are They?

To be profitable, understanding public betting splits is crucial for informed wagering decisions in sports betting. Below, we’ll discuss the public betting splits and their impact on betting lines.

What are Betting Splits? 

Betting splits are the distribution of bets placed on each side of a wager. Sportsbooks usually release this information as percentages to show what side the betting public favors in a specific sporting event.    For example, if 70% of wagers are on one team to win, and 30% are on the other team to win, the betting split would be 70/30.     You can also look at betting splits via the money coming in. There will be times when a bunch of small wagers are on one side, but a handful of massive wagers are on the other side.     While the percentage of bets might be high on one team, the percentage of money could be higher on the other team. This is how you can find sharp action.     Sharp action refers to bets placed by professional sports bettors. Experienced sports bettors often put more money on bets and will influence the betting splits because of their significant action as opposed to a recreational bettor putting only $5 bets. 

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How do Public Betting Splits Differ from Percentages? 

Public betting splits, and percentages are concepts related to sports betting. However, they give out different information. 

Public betting splits look at the percentage of bets the general betting public places on each bet. Meanwhile, the percentage of money wagered looks at the amount placed on each side, regardless of the number of bets. 

There are three percentages you should know in sports betting.  

• Public Betting Percentage: This is the percentage of total bets placed on both sides.  
• Money Percentage: This is the percentage of money placed on both sides. 
• Handle Percentage: This looks at the total money bet on each event outcome.  

Public betting splits focus on the number of bets, and percentages look at the number of bets or amount of money wagered.     Meanwhile, public betting splits can also be used to analyze the distribution of bets, and percentages can describe different data types. 

How Does It Impact Lines? 

Public betting splits will have plenty of influence on the betting lines. Every individual sportsbook will adjust their odds and lines when looking at recent betting patterns. Sportsbooks want to make money. So they’ll adjust to manage their risk. Sometimes, you’ll see different books with different odds.    There might be one site daring you to put money on Team A with the best odds, but another site has the best odds for Team B. These sportsbooks are doing whatever they can to try and earn profit on both sides of their odds.     So, when one side is heavily bet, sportsbooks will consider adjusting the line to balance their liabilities.    For example, if Team A has 80% of the bets, a sportsbook will consider adjusting the line to entice sports bettors to take Team B.     Sports betting is all about probability and odds. If you believe a team has a 30% chance to win but are +350, the value would be there for the underdog. If a price keeps shifting down, bettors will eventually take the hanging fruit. Ultimately, the sportsbook implies a team has just above a 22% chance with +350 odds. But if you believe the same team has a 30% chance of winning, you’d take any odds above +233.     If the line begins at +233 but public betting splits force movement, it’s a good time to pick up the other side.     However, sometimes, it’s better to be on the side that moves to a higher probability. That’s usually where the sharp money is. 

What is the Accuracy of AI Sports Betting Predictions? 

Many AI sports betting predictions use advanced algorithms to look at data and identify betting opportunities. An AI Model can be beneficial but relies heavily on many different factors.    An AI model needs historical and real-time data to predict an outcome. The prediction won’t always be accurate, but like every model with a proven track record, you'll see results if you stick with it.     The predictions can be accurate at a good rate as long as the model incorporates factors beyond public betting splits, like player performance data, the weather (for outside games), and different trends.    We should also note that sports outcomes can be predicted. But we’re betting on humans. Humans aren’t perfect and will make mistakes. A potentially lousy coaching decision could ruin your bet, too. These are factors that can’t be added to the model.    For example, let’s say Player A dominates left-handed pitching in the MLB. If Player A is facing a lousy lefty pitcher (Player B), there’s a good chance he’ll have a big day offensively. Yet, Player A could hit the ball super hard every at-bat, but if Player A hits it right to the fielders each time, he’ll be out every time.     The prediction might’ve been correct, but the outcomes weren’t. That’ll happen, even with an AI betting sports betting prediction. 

What Sports Have Public Betting Splits? 

Public betting splits exist in popular sports leagues like the NFL, MLB, NBA, NFL College Football, and College Basketball. There are also many soccer betting splits for the MLS and other popular leagues overseas. Here’s a look at how the public betting splits affect some of these sports. 

• NFL: The NFL is the most bet-on sport in America. With more data, you’ll want to monitor the NFL public betting splits closely. This data will be massive, especially for high-profile games involving popular teams like the Kansas City Chiefs or the Buffalo Bills. 
• MLB: In MLB, public betting splits will change based on pitching matchups, how the team has played, and if the team is popular. Even when the Yankees and Dodgers struggle, they’re heavily bet because of their popularity. Meanwhile, casual bettors will bet based on records and team form, but the best way to bet on baseball is by looking at the starting pitchers’ success throughout the season.  
• NBA: In the NBA, public betting splits are influenced by star players, betting trends, and injury reports. No league like the NBA continuously has players miss games due to rest or other random factors.  
• College Football / College Basketball: Public betting splits vary widely in college athletics because of many teams. Even for sportsbooks, it’s hard to keep up with some of the lower-tier teams. This is why there are professional sports bettors who make a killing on the mid-major level of college athletics. The lines and bets are changed as much because there aren’t enough betting splits to do anything.  

FAQs: Public Betting Splits 

What is an Example of Betting Split? 

Let’s build a legitimate scenario that could take place in the NFL this season.    The Kansas City Chiefs are -3 (-110), while the Buffalo Billis are +3 in an NFL Game.   In the game, the sportsbook announces that 10,000 bets are placed, and the total amount of money wagered is $1,000,000.    The Chiefs received 70% of the bets, for a total of 7,000 bets. Meanwhile, the Bills received 30% of the bets, for a total of 3,000 bets.    In addition, the Chiefs got 60% of the money, and the Bills only got 40%.     In this example, the Chiefs get 70% of the bets and 60% of the money. On the other hand, the Bills get 30% of the bets and 40% of the money.     This data proves that the Chiefs are getting sharp action. Not only are they adding more bets, but there’s also more money on the Chiefs.    This would force the sportsbook to shift the Chiefs from -3 to -3.5 against the spread to manage their liability with the Chiefs.     Someone else might grab the Bills' +3.5 line, knowing that even if the Chiefs win by a field goal, the Bills +3.5 would still be a winner.  

What is the Difference Between Sharp and Public Betting? 

The sharps are professional bettors who are usually in the know, thanks to connections. Some sharps have really good strategies that have allowed them to earn a lot of money.    Meanwhile, public betting looks at bets placed by the general public. The general public doesn’t bet for a living and often just picks their favorite teams to win using a small sum of money.  Conclusion Knowing public betting splits will help you become a profitable sports bettor. Sports betting aims to bet on a line that is better than the closing line.     For example, if you have -3 and the line changes to -3.5 against the spread, you’d have a +EV bet. Your bet has a higher probability than the odds you originally bought. If you can do this at a high rate, you will be a profitable sports bettor in no time.     You don’t have to be a professional sports bettor to earn +EV bets. You can use the tools we discussed above to locate where the sharp action is coming from. Then, you can bet with the sharp action and bring in +EV bets at a high rate.     However, don’t get it twisted. You can still lose a +EV bet. The best bettors in the world don’t even win more than 56% of the time at an average -110 price. Professional sports bettors rarely sustain long-term winning percentages beyond 55%.     That said, a break-even percentage is 52.4%. If you can win 53% of your bets, you’ll be long-term profitable. These public betting splits should be one of the main contributors to your newfound success.