Phillies Next Manager Odds: Will Don Mattingly Get Promoted from Interim Role After Strong Start?
The Philadelphia Phillies got off to an atrocious start, and fired Rob Thomson as a result. Legendary manager Don Mattingly has taken over on an interim basis, but will he keep the job? Peter Alexis reviews the latest Phillies Next Manager Odds as of May 4th.
Peter Alexis - May 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadPhillies Next Manager Odds: Who Will Replace Rob Thomson in Philly?
The Phillies market is even thinner and fresher than the Red Sox one, so the biggest disclaimer comes first: this is a very low-volume board, with only about $3,400 traded in the screenshot, which means prices can swing hard on rumor, one report, or even a couple of small trades. That makes these odds useful as a snapshot of sentiment, but not something to treat like a deeply efficient market.
The opening backdrop is straightforward. Philadelphia fired Rob Thomson after a 9-19 start and named Don Mattingly interim manager through the end of the season. Since the change, the Phillies have gone 5-1 in their last six games, which is a big reason Mattingly has jumped to the top of this market at 35%, ahead of Alex Cora at 25% and Brad Ausmus at 11%.
Bet on the Next Phillies Manager with Kalshi Here
Phillies Next Manager Odds
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Don Mattingly | 35% |
Alex Cora | 25% |
Brad Ausmus | 11% |
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Phillies Next Manager Odds Breakdown
Don Mattingly — 35% Chance Bet on Phillies Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Mattingly leads because he already has the job and the early returns have been strong. Reuters reported that he took over immediately after Thomson was dismissed, and the Phillies have responded with a 5-1 stretch under his watch, including a strong series-opening win over Miami and an earlier shutout of San Francisco in his debut.
He also brings real managerial credibility, having previously managed both the Dodgers and Marlins and won NL Manager of the Year in 2020. In a market this thin, being the current interim and winning right away is more than enough to make him the favorite.
Alex Cora — 25% Chance Bet on Phillies Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Cora is the biggest outside name because he was actually tied to the opening. Reuters reported that Phillies president Dave Dombrowski offered him the job, but Cora declined for family reasons shortly after being fired by Boston.
That matters because it proves there was at least real interest, not just market speculation. The problem is that he already said no once, and unless something changes, this price is more about his résumé and the prior connection than about a clear path to the seat today.
Brad Ausmus — 11% Chance Bet on Phillies Next Manager with Kalshi Here
Ausmus is the more speculative veteran-manager name on the board. He has prior MLB managerial experience with the Tigers and Angels, which is usually enough to attract some interest in a market like this, especially when bettors are looking for recognizable alternatives to the interim choice.
But unlike Mattingly and Cora, there is not much hard reporting right now connecting him directly to Philadelphia’s search. In a low-liquidity market, that kind of recognizable résumé can still draw price support, but his 11% looks more like a flyer than a sourced favorite.
Phillies Next Manager Outlook
Overall, the shape of this market makes sense for now: Mattingly is first because he is already in the dugout and winning, Cora is second because the Phillies actually wanted him once, and Ausmus is a distant résumé-based outsider. But with only a few thousand dollars traded, any real reporting around Philadelphia’s long-term plans could move this board very quickly.
MLB ODDS
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