NL MVP Odds: Pete Crow-Armstrong Takes Monster Lead in MVP Race After 5-Homer Weekend
Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken complete control of the NL MVP race after an incredible five-home-run weekend against Cincinnati. PCA has surged from roughly -150 just days ago to -1600, while Shohei Ohtani has fallen from +120 to +900 as the Cubs star continues building one of baseball's best all-around seasons.
Peter Alexis - August 31, 2026, 3:45 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNL MVP Odds: Does Ohtani Have a Chance to Catch PCA in MVP Race?
The NL MVP race looked competitive entering the weekend, but that changed quickly. Crow-Armstrong hit three home runs in Chicago's blowout victory Saturday before adding two more Sunday night, giving him five homers in two games and creating massive separation from Ohtani in the betting market.
NL MVP Odds
NL MVP Odds Breakdown
Pete Crow-Armstrong -1600 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Crow-Armstrong has reached 38 home runs, 91 RBIs and 32 stolen bases while hitting around .283, putting a 40-40 season firmly within reach. He also entered the weekend leading MLB with 9.1 FanGraphs WAR while providing elite defense in center field, making his case about far more than the sudden power surge.
Chicago is nearly 20 games over .500 despite competing in a loaded NL Central, and PCA has been the driving force. The Cubs are not even leading the division, but his combination of power, speed, defense and overall value has made him increasingly difficult to challenge for the award.
Five homers in two games may have been the market's breaking point. Crow-Armstrong was around -150 only days ago and now sits at -1600. Unless his production falls off dramatically in September, this has become his award to lose.
Shohei Ohtani +900 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ohtani is having another excellent season, hitting around .283 with 30 home runs, 80 RBIs and an OPS above .900. He also provided ace-level production on the mound earlier in the year, going 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts across 85 2/3 innings.
The issue is that those numbers feel quieter compared with the extraordinary standard Ohtani has established. He has not pitched since early July, and his offensive production has cooled enough for Crow-Armstrong to create significant separation in overall value.
Ohtani remains the only realistic challenger because he can change a race quickly with one huge month. At +900, however, he now needs something dramatic. Crow-Armstrong has the stronger momentum, better defensive value and potentially a 40-40 season coming into view.
NL MVP Outlook
A race that was essentially Crow-Armstrong -150 versus Ohtani +120 has become completely one-sided in a matter of days. Ohtani still has time to make a late push, but PCA's five-homer weekend appears to have transformed the market.
At -1600, Crow-Armstrong no longer needs to chase the award. He simply needs to finish the season without giving Ohtani an opening.
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