NBA MVP Race: Power Ranking the Top 10 Candidates Two Months Into the 2022-23 Season
After the first two months of the NBA season, the playoff races and awards races are starting to take shape. Among the 10 players with the best odds to win MVP, who will come away with the award? Here are our power rankings of the top 10 candidates.
Ryan Kirksey - December 21, 2022, 4:57 PM EST
6 minNBA MVP Race: Power Ranking the Top 10 Candidates Two Months Into the 2022-23 Season
After the first two months of the NBA season, the playoff races and awards races are starting to take shape. Among the 10 players with the best odds to win MVP, who actually will come away with the award? Here are our power rankings of the top ten candidates.
Power Ranking the Top 10 NBA MVP Candidates
10. Steph Curry (+3600) Bet $100 to collect $3700. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
Steph Curry and the Warriors are on shaky ground right now. They are trying to avoid becoming the first team since the 1998-1999 Bulls to win the NBA Finals and then miss the playoffs completely the next year. But with injuries to Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson, Draymond Green off doing wild man things, and inconsistency up and down the rest of the roster, even Curry's 30 points and seven assists per game may not be able to save them. Miss the playoffs? No MVP for you.
9. Zion Williamson (+3000) Bet $100 to collect $3100. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
If you didn't already know that Zion is coming off a missed season with a foot injury, it would be impossible to tell. His 25.2 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and 60% shooting are almost a carbon copy of his 2021 season. But his true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and PER have all dropped somewhat. The Pelicans don't mind, of course, as they are just one game out of the West lead. But Zion right now lacks the eye-popping numbers that scream "MVP" based on past results.
8. Devin Booker (+2700) Bet $100 to collect $2800. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
When Booker is on, there is simply no one better at pure scoring. As evidenced by his recent 58-point explosion on Saturday, he can light up anyone in the league. But the downside to that he is subject to some prolonged shooting slumps at times. His three previous games before the Saturday score fest were quite bad from a shooting perspective and now he has missed a couple of games due to injury. There is just enough inconsistency here to keep up from winning the award this season. But he is young enough (just turned 26) to take it someday.
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7. Kevin Durant (+2500) Bet $100 to collect $2600.BetMGM has the best odds, click here
Kevin Durant actually leads the NBA in total points scored this season (911) and is fifth in points per game (30.4). It speaks to his durability in spite of a tumultuous team season that he has been so consistent and reliable. But the scoring doesn't help him crack the top five in win shares, PER, plus/minus, or win shares per 48 minutes. The struggles show up on defense primarily, where Durant is just 43rd in defense plus/minus this season. For comparison, all of the players in the top five of this list are ahead of him this season in that category.
6. Ja Morant (+3000) Bet $100 to collect $3100. BetMGM has the best odds, click here
For the MVP race, attendance is part of the grade, and Morant's presence in games is slightly below what you want from your elite superstars. He missed 25 games last year due to injury and has already missed five of the Grizzlies' first 30 games this season. That stats are still electric, and Morant is one of the most dynamic players in the league, a surefire MVP dinner at some point. But he is outside the top 12 in win shares, PER, and plus/minus so far in 2022-2023.
5. Joel Embiid (+1200) Bet $100 to collect $1300. BetMGM has the best odds, click here
Could this finally be the year? After many felt he was upset in the MVP race by Nikola Jokic last season (he wasn't), Embiid is on another rampage again this season, leading the league in scoring (33 points per game) and he is top five in PER and Win Shares per 48 minutes. But perhaps the best thing Embiid has going for him is that his team is finally playing up to expectations. After starting the season a lackluster 12-12, they have won their last five and are up to fifth in the Eastern Conference. Embiid is the primary catalyst for the surge, posting career highs in points, assists, and field goal percentage.
4. Jayson Tatum (+275) Bet $100 to collect $375. BetMGM has the best odds, click here
Right now, most sportsbooks have Tatum as the slight favorite over all other candidates to win the MVP award. It makes complete sense as the Celtics are just half-game out of the best record in the league at 22-9, Boston has the best offensive rating in the league, and Tatum is their best offensive (and some would say defensive) player. He is setting career highs in points and rebounds and is shooting 47% from the floor after four straight at 45%. But much of what he has done is thanks to volume. He leads the league in minutes played per game but doesn't crack the top ten in PER or plus/minus. He is a fantastic choice considering his overall stat line this year, but for the odds, I will take either of the three below.
3. Luka Doncic (+475) Bet $100 to collect $575. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
This is going to be the best season of Luka's young career - if holds up all the way through. He is second in the league in scoring (32.5 points per game), fourth in assists (8.6), and top 25 in rebounds (8.5 per game). He is top-six in PER, Win Shares, and plus/minus as well. But it's because he is literally doing everything for his team and they have given him basically no help. His 38.1% usage rate is just fractions of a point behind Giannis, but after the Mavericks lost Jalen Brunson to free agency and Kristaps Porzingis to trade last year, Doncic's only real help is Spencer Dinwiddie at guard and sixth-man Christian Wood. Those are two great complementary pieces, but are they the second-best players on championship teams? Likely not. If Doncic can hold up at this pace the entire season, he has a fantastic shot to win and the odds are solid right now.
2. Giannis Antetokuonmpo (+280) Bet $100 to collect $380. Caesars has the best odds, click here
Somehow, someway, Giannis keeps getting better. He is averaging over 30 points per game this season (with slightly lower shooting percentages) because his team's situation has demanded it. Both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have missed many games due to injury so Giannis is carrying the load for all of them. Despite all of this, he has the Bucks at 22-8 and the best record in the NBA. The PER, Win Shares, and plus/minus have taken a dip since his MVP seasons and his dominant year last year. But those will likely improve when his team is at full strength and he won't be asked to carry the complete offensive and defensive load every single night.
1. Nikola Jokic (+800) Bet $100 to collect $900. Caesars has the best odds, click here
We've seen this story before in each of the last two seasons. Whether it's been Embiid, Giannis, Doncic, or Curry, each of these players looked like a strong candidate to win an MVP award the past two years and Nikola Jokic starts going and leaves them all in the dust. Well, he started early this year and is playing some elite basketball. In the month of December, he is averaging (across nine games) 29 points, 13.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists, and two steals. The Nuggets are now tied for the top record in the West and Jokic leads all players in PER, win shares, plus/minus, and VORP. Jokic, a center, is also third in the NBA in assists. If you can grab him for +800 anywhere, jump on it.
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