NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Betting Preview: Predictions, Prop Bets, Analysis for Each First-Round Series
The Eastern Conference side of the NBA Playoffs tips off first, with the Bucks vs. Pacers getting it going on Saturday afternoon. Mark Harris delivers his first oddschecker piece, a breakdown of each Eastern Conference Round 1 series, and analyzing the various prop odds and likelihood of advancing for each team.
Mark Harris
| 7 min
NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Betting Preview: Predictions, Prop Bets, Analysis for Each First-Round Series
The play-in tournament is settled, the tanking teams have been mercifully cast aside, and the NBA playoffs is finally here, starting with the Milwaukee Bucks vs. the Indiana Pacers this afternoon. Game 1 tips off at 1 p.m. ET in Indianapolis.
From there, the Eastern Conference postseason action shifts to the Big Apple when the three-seed New York Knicks host the six-seed Detroit Pistons at 6 p.m. Saturday night. Both of today's games should pave the way for long and competitive series.
The favorites to play in the Eastern Conference Finals get rolling on Sunday when the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers take the floor. Boston hosts the Orlando Magic at 3:30 p.m., then the Cavaliers battle the Miami Heat at 7 p.m. in Cleveland.
If you're interested in making a few wagers on these games, Mark Harris details some of the most relevant bets in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks First Round Series Odds
Pacers (-164) vs. Bucks Series Moneyline Odds
The Pacers and Bucks face off in the playoffs for the second consecutive season, this time with Indiana as the host team. The Pacers backed up their first-round win over Milwaukee and subsequent trip to the Eastern Conference Finals last year with a 50-win campaign in 2025, and it's why FanDuel Sportsbook sees them as -164 favorites to win this series.
Depth has once again been the key to Indiana's success. Seven Pacers averaged at least 10 points per game this season, led by Pascal Siakam with 20.2 PPG, while superstar point guard Tyrese Haliburton guided the offense with 18.6 PPG and 9.2 assists per game (third in the NBA). Rick Carlisle's squad made meaningful improvements on the defensive end as well, jumping up to 13th in defensive efficiency rating this year after ranking 24th in that category in 2023-24.
At 48-34, the Bucks don't necessarily scream championship contender, but they will always have a chance with #34 on the court. Giannis Antetokounmpo is widely expected to finish third in MVP voting after racking up 30.4 points per game (60.1% shooting) and 11.9 rebounds per game, so we know he'll bring it against Indiana, it's just up to his teammates to fill in the gaps.
Antetokounmpo will have to shoulder the load for at least Game 1, though, since Damian Lillard will miss at least that game after getting cleared from taking blood-thinning medication stemming from his deep vein thrombosis. Milwaukee's five other players who averaged double digits will have to step up in Lillard's absence.
Pacers vs. Bucks Total Game Odds: Over/Under 5.5
This series is anticipated to go at least six games. Over 5.5 games is heavily juiced at -205, while Under is listed at +164. If you think Indiana's youth will overwhelm an older Milwaukee team, then Under 5.5 games is a good bet. Still, it's asking a lot from a team to dispatch Antetokounmpo that quickly.
Pacers vs. Bucks Series Player Props: Most Total Assists
Haliburton having the most assists in this series (-220) is an incredibly unsexy bet, but it also seems incredibly likely. The young point guard conducts Indiana's offense on basically every possession, and with Lillard sidelined for one game and maybe more, there's no one else who can realistically challenge Haliburton for this statistical mark.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons First Round Series Odds
Knicks -420 vs. Pistons Series Moneyline Odds
Remember where you were in 2008? Pistons fans should remember, because that was the last time their team won a playoff game, Game 4 of the '08 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Boston to be exact. (You should probably scrub from your brain what the Lions did that year, though).
Detroit carries a 14-game postseason losing streak into this series against New York. Despite the Knicks being -420 favorites to beat the Pistons, this young, upstart Detroit team isn't backing down from anyone and is well-positioned to make this an exciting series with former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham leading the charge.
The Knicks are heavy favorites for a reason, though, and their All-Star duo of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns can get buckets with ease. They guided New York to a 51-win season, and with experienced role players OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart on their side, they are capable of making some noise in the playoffs.
Knicks vs. Pistons Total Game Odds: Over/Under 5.5
There is no significant lean on the 5.5 game over/under from the books. Over 5.5 is a short favorite at -138 and Under 5.5 is listed at +112. A five or six-game series seems like the most likely outcome.
Knicks vs. Pistons Series Player Props: Most Total Points
Most total points is such an interesting market because Cunningham and Brunson both enter at +100. It makes sense considering Cunningham scored 26.1 points per game and Brunson averaged 26.0 PPG, although Brunson was slightly more efficient at 48.8% from the field in the regular season. Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG, is a distant third in the odds at +700, presenting some value.
Can the Knicks run the table and win the Eastern Conference Finals? Check out the latest odds here
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic First Round Series Odds
Celtics (-8000) vs. Magic Series Moneyline Odds
The Boston Celtics' first obstacle in their quest of repeating as NBA champions is a first round series against the Orlando Magic. Separated by a whopping 20 games in the standings, the Celtics are enormous -8000 favorites to win this series.
Boston has a huge talent advantage with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, and more. It all added up to the second-best offensive efficiency rating and the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating. When you also factor in that the Celtics made the most 3-pointers in the NBA (17.8 per game), they just don’t have many weaknesses.
Orlando can at least lean on its defense that gave up the fewest points in the league (105.5 PPG) to keep things close. However, its defensive excellence is canceled out by its offensive ineptitude, since the Magic only score 105.4 points per game.
If the Celtics play their game, this should be a pretty short series. And while Brown's knee injury is a concern, it won't be a big deal in this round.
Celtics vs. Magic Total Game Odds: Over/Under 4.5
The books anticipate that Orlando nabs at least one game from Boston, as Over 4.5 games is set at -158. Sweeping a team is always difficult even for a talented team like the Celtics, but if you think they can win this one in four games, Under 4.5 is valued at +128.
Celtics vs. Magic Prop Bets: Series Correct Score
Player props are difficult to gauge in this series because the Celtics share the ball so well and because Orlando’s best players in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are inconsistent on the offensive end. With that in mind, you can focus on the correct score markets where you can get Celtics 4-0 series sweep at +128 or Celtics 4-1 series win at +152. A Magic 4-3 series win is valued at +4000 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat First Round Series Odds
Cavaliers (-2500) vs. Heat Series Moneyline Odds
The 64-18 Cavaliers are strong favorites to defeat the Heat in round one, but Miami does get some respect at +1200 to pull off the upset. Not bad for a 37-win regular-season team. Another year of growth and the addition of Kenny Atkinson as head coach have done wonders for Cleveland. Improving by 16 wins in the regular season is no small feat, and it speaks to the overall depth and completeness of the squad. With a strong backcourt led by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, a towering frontcourt duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, effective wings and a strong bench, you can see why the Cavaliers led the NBA with 121.9 points per game. They were also deadly from beyond the arc. Cleveland’s 15.9 3-pointers made per game trailed only Boston, and the Cavs also connected on 38.3% of those attempts, which also ranked second in the league. Meanwhile, the Heat showed their mettle in their play-in games and will surely be a tough out even without Jimmy Butler. Tyler Herro is on a heater after dropping 68 combined points through the two play-in games — and those weren’t complete outlier performances after he averaged 23.9 PPG this season. Herro will shoulder the scoring load, Bam Adebayo can handle the dirty work down low, and the rest of Miami’s guards can typically be trusted to play smart basketball.
Cavaliers vs. Heat Total Game Odds: Over/Under 4.5
Even though the Total Games is set at 4.5, the oddsmakers really think this series goes five games because Over 4.5 is juiced at -245. That makes enough sense given the Heat’s recent playoff history, but Under 4.5 games (+194) is good value for a rested Cleveland team to sweep less-talented Miami.
Cavaliers vs. Heat Prop Bets: Series Correct Score After 3 Games
This market caught my eye because the two most realistic options both have plus value. The Cavaliers leading 3-0 is at +116, and the Cavs leading 2-1 is at +126. It’s hard to imagine any other series result after three games, so one of those bets seems like it will hit.
NBA ODDS
