NBA Western Conference Playoffs Betting Preview: Predictions, Prop Bets, Analysis for Each First-Round Series
The Western Conference is ready to rumble in the NBA Playoffs, and while OKC is the clear favorite, almost any team in this conference can put up a fight and reach the NBA Finals. Most of the odds are relatively close for teams 2-7, with the Grizzlies as the lone outlier. Mark Harris breaks down the Western Conference Playoffs first round, and provides some interesting series prop bets.
Mark Harris - April 19, 2025, 3:55 PM EDT
7 minNBA Western Conference Playoffs Betting Preview: Predictions, Prop Bets, Analysis for Each First-Round Series
Cue up ‘Roundball Rock’, find a nice spot on the couch and settle in for a great weekend of NBA playoff basketball. The Western Conference once again has the best collection of teams in the NBA and Saturday’s action is loaded with superstar ballers.
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets look to cleanse off the dysfunction of their season with a Game 1 showdown against the Clippers at 3:30 p.m. ET in Denver. Later tonight, the Lakers and Timberwolves get things started at 8:30 p.m.
Round one continues on Sunday when the Thunder take on the Memphis Grizzlies at 1 p.m. in OKC, then the Rockets and Golden State Warriors close out the weekend action at 9:30 in Houston.
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NBA Western Conference Playoffs Betting Preview
Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers Series Odds
Clippers (-118) vs. Nuggets Series Moneyline Odds
Despite having home court advantage, the books see Denver as a slight underdog to LA. The Clippers’ late-season surge (17-3 record in last 20 games) has to factor into these odds, along with the Nuggets’ recent firing of head coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth. It also doesn’t help that Denver finished 22nd in defensive efficiency rating.
Jokic is as good as ever after averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists on 57.6% shooting, but LA’s lethal trio of a fully-armed and operational Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Norman Powell — who each scored at least 21.5 points per game this season — is a difficult defensive assignment for any NBA team, let alone one of the worst in the league. Both teams will be in for a handful.
Nuggets vs. Clippers Total Game Odds: Over/Under 5.5
The oddsmakers really expect this series to go for at least six games, as the over is massively juiced at -215. Grasping control of this series will be fleeting, and Game 5 in Denver will likely swing this matchup.
Nuggets vs. Clippers Series Player Props: Most Total Rebounds
Unsurprisingly, Jokic (-175) and Clippers center Ivica Zubac (+110) are the odds-on leaders to have the most rebounds in this series. Jokic makes sense as the favorite, but there is really good value in Zubac at +110, because his 12.6 rebounds per game were fourth in the NBA this year, just slightly behind Jokic’s 12.7 RPG. He also out-rebounded Jokic 36-30 in the three games they played against one another this season. Plus, Denver’s taller perimeter players in Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. could steal some rebounds from Jokic, whereas Zubac has a clearer path to grab more boards.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds
Lakers (-186) vs. Timberwolves Series Moneyline Odds
With home court advantage and the superstar duo of LeBron James and Luka Doncic, the Lakers are the clear favorites against the Timberwolves. Los Angeles is just one game better than Minnesota, but its overall offensive playmaking with James and Doncic presents so much defensive headaches — even for a good defensive team like Minnesota.
LeBron’s postseason bonafides are unimpeachable at this point, and fatigue shouldn’t be a factor for the 40-year-old since it’s just the first round of the playoffs. Doncic thrived against the Timberwolves in last year’s Western Conference Finals to the tune of 32.4 points per game, and he should have even more open looks this time when paired with LeBron. Add in Austin Reaves as a real third option (20.2 PPG in the regular season), and there should always be a hot hand for the Lakers.
Minnesota isn’t drawing dead in this series, though. Anthony Edwards is arguably the most electrifying player in basketball, and it’s not just highlight dunks since he was fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.6 PPG) and led the league in 3-pointers made. While Ant-Man draws most of the attention, Rudy Gobert is still a great interior defender, and Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels are all capable secondary scorers. The Timberwolves also finished sixth in defensive rating.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Total Game Odds: Over/Under 5.5
Similarly to Nuggets-Clippers, this series is also expected to go for six or more games. FanDuel Sportsbook has Lakers-Timberwolves Over 5.5 games at -196, while Under 5.5 games is set at +158. Even though Los Angeles has a big edge in star power, Edwards is capable of winning a few games by himself.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Series Player Props: Most Total Points
Before we dive into this bet, let’s appreciate that there are three legitimate options to score the most points in this series. The star power in this series is so bright it’ll blind ya if you aren’t wearing the right sunglasses.
Doncic is the favorite at -105, followed by Edwards at +105, then LeBron at +500. You can go with any of these three and feel good since Doncic was the top scorer in last year’s Mavericks-Timberwolves WCF over Edwards, LeBron is LeBron, and Edwards is the clear top scorer on his team. Edwards at +105 has value because there is no second superstar on Minnesota to shave off some of his scoring, and because Reaves will likely steal some shot attempts from Doncic and LeBron.
Can the Luka Doncic, LeBron, and the Lakers put it all together and win the Western Conference Finals? Check out the latest odds here
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds
Thunder (-4000) vs. Grizzlies Series Moneyline Odds
The Oklahoma City Thunder amassed a league-best 68-14 record as they blazed through the regular season with MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 32.7 points per night. Their first postseason obstacle? Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies. OKC is the heavy favorite to win this series at -3000. Gilgeous-Alexander is a steady scoring machine, and he's surrounded by a perfectly assembled supporting cast that finished first in defensive efficiency. Third-year pro Jalen Williams blossomed with 21.6 PPG, Chet Holmgren is essentially a giant human spider on the court, Isaiah Hartenstein accounts for a nightly double-double, and that's just a few of SGA's superb teammates. Their contributions are why the Thunder are +180 favorites to win the NBA Finals.
Memphis faces an uphill climb in round one after an up-and-down season that saw head coach Taylor Jenkins fired in March. The Grizzlies talented trio of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane does at least have some real playoff experience to challenge OKC.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Total Game Odds: Over/Under 4.5
This is the only Western Conference first-round series with a total game over/under of 4.5. Over 4.5 is listed at -180, which means the oddsmakers have more faith in Memphis taking one game than the Thunder sweeping. Under 4.5 games is +146.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Prop Bets: Series Correct Order
FanDuel lets you bet on how each game will play out and the order in which each team wins. Here are three realistic options:
- G1 OKC, G2 OKC, G3 OKC, G4 OKC (+148)
- G1 OKC, G2 OKC, G3 OKC, G4 MEM, G5 OKC (+730)
- G1 OKC, G2 OKC, G3 MEM, G4 OKC, G5 OKC (+590)
The most likely outcome of this series is an OKC sweep or Memphis stealing one at home, you can just decide whether it's Game 3 or Game 4. If you think Memphis can do better than losing in five games (despite how badly the Grizzlies played against winning teams this season), you can find even better series correct order wagers on FanDuel.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Odds
Warriors (-166) vs. Rockets Series Moneyline Odds
After surviving the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, the Golden State Warriors head down to Houston for a series against the Rockets. This isn’t your older brother’s Warriors-Rockets playoff series from the 2010s, and while the faces have changed (on Houston, at least), there is still plenty of intrigue.
The oddsmakers and talking heads alike value Golden State’s playoff experience in this matchup, listing it as a -166 favorite. It makes sense given the Rockets’ youth and the Warriors’ acquisition of Jimmy Butler, and everyone knows it’s never fun to face Steph Curry and Draymond Green in a playoff series.
Houston’s younger players like Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. provided most of the production in its 52-30 campaign, and that leads to some questions about how they will fare in the playoff against a group of veteran winners in Golden State. Still, Rockets coach Ime Udoka recently led a team to the NBA Finals and 31-year-old point guard Fred VanVleet is no stranger to postseason success after winning a championship with the Toronto Raptors in 2019. To be sure, it’s a young team with a lot to prove, but Houston has more playoff experience than you might think.
Warriors vs. Rockets Total Game Odds: Over/Under 5.5
A short series here would be a surprise. Warriors-Rockets Over 5.5 games is -210 and that feels about right. This series has wide age gaps and long travel between the Gulf Coast and the Bay Area, so it’s hard to imagine this getting decided quickly. If you disagree, you can take Under 5.5 total games at +164.
Warriors vs. Rockets Series Player Props: Most Total Rebounds
Houston led the NBA in rebounds and center Alperen Sengun is the only player in this series to average double-digit rebounds (10.3 RPG) this season. He is the clear favorite in this series to get the most rebounds at -220, and he should be expected to do just that against a Warriors team that plays small ball often. It’s not great value, but there’s a reason why Sengun is the clear pick.
NBA ODDS
