NBA Series Odds: Can Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers Recover From Two Game Deficits?
The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are in trouble after losing both home games in their second round series. What are the odds they overcome an 0-2 deficit and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals? Mark Harris examines the odds for each team winning their series.
Mark Harris - May 9, 2025, 6:08 PM EDT
6 minNBA Series Odds: Can Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers Recover From Two Game Deficits?
The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers find their backs against the wall way sooner than they possibly could have imagined.
It's one thing for Boston or Cleveland to trail 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. But in the second round???
Nobody expected this, and whether you blame bad 3-point shooting luck or injuries, the losses count the same. There is almost no margin for error remaining for the Celtics and Cavaliers, so it's basically do-or-die on the road in Game 3 for both teams.
And while teams have overcome 0-2 series deficits in the past, it is quite a difficult feat to pull off. There have been 463 NBA playoff series in which a team won the first two games, and the team up 2-0 won 429 of those series. That leaves 34 instances where the team down 0-2 pulled off the comeback, which is just 7.3%.
So yeah, it's not impossible, but it is a rare accomplishment. Just don't fall down 3-0, because no NBA team has ever come back from that deficit.
The odds are stacked against Boston and Cleveland, but to what extent? I analyze the FanDuel Sportsbook odds of the Celtics and Cavaliers winning their second-round series:
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Celtics vs. Knicks Series Odds
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Believe it or not, Boston is still favored to win its second-round series vs. New York.
The oddsmakers have a ton of faith in the Celtics' body of work and must attribute their losses to awful 3-point luck.
It's fair to blame Boston's two losses on bad 3-point shooting. Shooting 15-of-60 from deep in Game 1, then following it up with a 10-of-40 performance is such a statistical anomaly that you can understand why the books aren't factoring it into their series odds.
And it's also fair for the books to trust a Celtics team that was up by 20 points in the third quarter of both games.
But it's wild to me that Boston is still favored in this series. I understand trusting 3-point variance (heck, I picked the Celtics to cover in Game 2 based on 3-point variance), but the Knicks only need to win two more games!
They have five chances to win two games. There's room for Boston to bounce back from beyond the arc and still not win this series. The Celtics have to win four out of five games, while New York only needs two and has three games in Madison Square Garden.
Plus, the Knicks clearly have found ways to slow down Jayson Tatum. He's having a disastrous series so far, scoring 18 points on just 28.6% shooting, and if they can keep defending him well, then this one is over.
I expect some level of a bounce-back from Tatum and the rest of the Celtics, but not enough to come back. Maybe the oddsmakers are onto something and I just don't see it.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Series Odds
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These odds make more sense for a 2-0 series. After a fairly standard Game 1 win, Indiana staged its own comeback in Game 2 that was capped off by a game-winning 3-pointer from Tyrese Haliburton.
Cavaliers All-Star point guard Darius Garland has missed the whole series with a toe injury, then things got worse for Cleveland when injuries sidelined Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter for Game 2.
Suddenly, the Cavaliers face an 0-2 deficit and a trip to Indianapolis. There is some hope that the trio will suit up for Game 3 on Friday night, but it's far from a guarantee.
It should also be noted that Indiana played very well in Game 1 when only Garland was out. Six Pacers reached double digits and Haliburton had 13 assists, which has been the formula for Indiana in these last two playoff runs. Indiana moves the ball, takes good shots, and doesn't rely on one guy to be Superman offensively.
That's why the Pacers are such a threat, even if Cleveland were completely healthy. They are hard to defend, and like the Knicks, only need to win two more games.
With that said, Cavaliers +162 does offer some value. If you think Cleveland gets back to full health and resembles the 64-win team from the regular season, there is plus value to be had before tipoff on Friday night.
Indiana feels like it is picking up steam, though, and it may be too late for the injured Cavaliers.
NBA Eastern Conference 2024-25 Winner
The oddsmakers still believe in the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference Finals despite the sluggish start to the second round. They're favored, but not by much. And you can expect a major change in those odds if they come up short against the Knicks on Saturday afternoon.
NBA ODDS
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