NBA MVP Odds: Nikola Jokic Charges Back into MVP Race After Injury Return, Challenging Favorite SGA
The NBA MVP odds board is shifting around slightly as Nikola Jokic charges back into the race. Does he have enough juice to overtake reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Peter Alexis breaks down the latest NBA MVP odds update as of mid February.
Peter Alexis - February 11, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
4 Minute ReadNBA MVP Odds: Can Jokic Catch SGA in Heated MVP Race?
The 2025-26 NBA MVP race has taken a bit of a turn as injuries and late-season surges reshape the odds board. Just weeks ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked like a near lock to repeat, sitting comfortably as a heavy favorite while the rest of the field chased from a distance. But February has introduced real uncertainty, opening the door for a familiar challenger to storm back into the conversation.
That challenger is Nikola Jokić, who has returned from a leg injury in dominant form. After falling completely outside the top tier during his absence, Jokić has rocketed back to +320 and now sits firmly behind only Gilgeous-Alexander. Meanwhile, SGA’s own momentum has stalled slightly as he deals with an abdominal issue that has forced him to miss time. With roughly a third of the season still to play, the MVP race suddenly feels competitive again.
Wins, health, and late-season narrative will decide everything from here. And with multiple superstars still holding realistic paths to the trophy, this race is far from over. Let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds as of mid February.
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NBA MVP Odds
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NBA MVP Odds Breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-210) Check out these best MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Even with the recent injury concern, Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite for a reason. He is averaging 31.8 points and 6.4 assists while shooting 39% from three, continuing the elite two-way dominance that powered last season’s MVP run. Voters reward sustained excellence, and SGA has delivered it all year.
The biggest question is availability. Missing games late in the season can quickly shift perception, especially when a challenger like Jokić is surging. If SGA returns quickly and finishes strong, the award is still firmly his to lose. But the margin for error is suddenly much thinner than it was a month ago.
Nikola Jokic (+320) Check out these best MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jokić’s return has completely reshaped the race. He is posting a staggering 28.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.7 assists, numbers that flirt with another historic triple-double season. More importantly, his impact is immediate and undeniable whenever he’s on the floor, reminding voters why he has already collected multiple MVP trophies.
Narrative momentum matters in this award, and few stories are stronger than a superstar returning from injury to carry his team down the stretch. If Denver closes the season hot while SGA misses additional time, Jokić has a very real path to leapfrog into first place.
Cade Cunningham (+2000) Check out these best MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Cunningham’s candidacy is built less on gaudy scoring and more on winning. He is averaging 25.8 points and 9.6 assists while leading Detroit to a stunning 39-13 record and first place in the conference. Team success has always been one of the strongest MVP indicators, keeping Cade firmly in the conversation even as his odds have drifted.
To seriously challenge SGA or Jokić, Cunningham likely needs a dominant statistical surge in addition to maintaining Detroit’s top seed. The foundation is there, but the closing statement still needs to arrive.
Luka Dončić (+2000) Check out these best MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dončić may sit at long-shot odds, but his production keeps him firmly relevant in the race. He is averaging 32.8 points, 8.6 assists, and 7.8 rebounds, giving him arguably the strongest all-around statistical case of any contender. When MVP voters look purely at numbers, Luka is still right near the top of the league.
Team success is also no longer a weakness. The Lakers are 32-21 and sitting fifth in the Western Conference, firmly in the playoff picture and trending upward. At +2000, the odds suggest an uphill climb, but a dominant late-season run could quickly push Dončić back into the heart of the MVP conversation.
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