NBA Champion Odds: OKC Thunder Poised to Repeat as Odds-On Favorite After First Round Sweep
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been rolling through the first round of the NBA Playoffs, and it doesn't look like many teams have the talent to challenge them. They are now the odds-on favorite with a greater than 55% chance of winning it all, can the Spurs or Celtics get in their way? Peter Alexis analyzes the 2026 NBA Champion odds on the last day of April.
Peter Alexis - April 30, 2026, 11:55 AM EDT
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The title market has finally made a bold call. After sweeping through the first round, Oklahoma City is now -125 to win the NBA championship, which works out to an implied probability of about 55.6%. That is a massive number this early in the playoffs, and it reflects both how dominant the Thunder have looked and how much uncertainty still surrounds the rest of the bracket.
The two clearest challengers right now are San Antonio in the West and Boston in the East. The Spurs have already moved on and continue to look like the only Western team with the depth, star power, and defensive ceiling to really threaten OKC. Boston still has the stronger conference path on paper, but its series has dragged on longer than expected, which is part of why the Thunder’s number may ease slightly once other contenders also advance.
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NBA Champion Odds
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NBA Champion Odds Breakdown
Oklahoma City Thunder (-125) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Thunder deserve to be on top of the board after a clean 4-0 sweep of Phoenix. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has looked in total control, including a 31-point, 8-assist closeout performance, while Chet Holmgren has been a two-way force and the supporting cast has continued to hit shots and defend at a championship level. The fact that they swept despite Jalen Williams missing time only adds to the sense that this team has another gear if it gets healthier. At -115, the market is basically saying the defending champs are more likely than not to repeat.
San Antonio Spurs (+500) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
San Antonio has become the most credible Western threat after eliminating Portland 4-1. Victor Wembanyama remains the centerpiece, but this team is much deeper now, with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper all playing major roles in the surge. The Spurs are not just surviving, they are growing into the postseason, and that is why their odds remain so strong. If there is a team in the West that can match OKC’s talent wave-for-wave, it is this one.
Boston Celtics (+550) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Boston still looks like the strongest East team overall, but the path has gotten bumpier than expected. The Celtics lead Philadelphia only 3-2 after dropping Game 5, even with Jayson Tatum putting up 24 points and 16 rebounds. Jaylen Brown remains central to everything they do, and once Boston gets through this series its number could firm up again. For now, though, the market is acknowledging that a title favorite from the East should not still be taking punches this deep into Round 1.
Cleveland Cavaliers (+1700) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland is not at the very top of the market, but it still deserves mention because the talent is there to make a run if the bracket opens. Donovan Mitchell continues to lead the way, and the Cavs have stayed in the mix because they can defend at a high level and still find enough offense late in games. They do not have the same odds momentum as OKC, San Antonio, or Boston, but they remain one of the more believable secondary contenders if one of the East heavyweights stumbles.
New York Knicks (+2500) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Knicks have steadied themselves after early panic and now lead Atlanta 3-2. Jalen Brunson looked like himself again with 39 points in Game 5, and when he is controlling a series like that, New York becomes much more dangerous than its odds suggest. OG Anunoby has also been a major factor, especially on the glass and defensively. Their odds are still longer than the top three because this team has already shown some volatility, but if Brunson keeps delivering like that, the Knicks are not an easy out.
Los Angeles Lakers (+3500) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The Lakers are the wild card. They jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Houston, then got blown out in Game 4 and now face the usual questions about consistency, age, and how much they can really sustain over four rounds. LeBron James is still capable of swinging games, and the roster has enough veterans to stay dangerous, but the path looks much tougher than it did a few days ago. Their odds remain alive because the star power is obvious, yet the market is also warning that this team may be more fragile than the headline names above them.
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